by Yaakov Katz
As military buildups along the Gaza border escalate and diplomatic rhetoric hardens, a 45-year peace treaty faces its most serious test yet.
 |
As if Israel didn’t have enough trouble, talk of a potential war with Egypt is now spreading across the Middle East.
A peace treaty that has been a pillar of regional stability for 45 years is suddenly being questioned. What was once considered an untouchable agreement is now caught in the crosswinds of war and political maneuvering, serving as a stark reminder of how fragile the region remains, even after nearly a year-and-a-half of conflict.
Tensions with Egypt began in May when Israel launched its ground offensive into southern Gaza. As part of the operation, Israeli forces took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, an eight-mile strip of land separating Gaza from Egypt. For years, the corridor had been a major smuggling route, with Hamas using underground tunnels to bring in weapons, fighters, and supplies.
The move triggered immediate pushback from Cairo, which claimed that Israel’s increased military deployment along the border violated the Camp David Accords. In response, Egypt began reinforcing its own military presence in the Sinai.
Tensions escalated further when an exchange of fire between Israeli and Egyptian soldiers resulted in the death of an Egyptian serviceman. Both sides explained that the incident was caused by a misunderstanding, but it did not help.
Israel has insisted that its military posture in Gaza is solely aimed at eliminating Hamas and preventing future attacks. Egypt’s military buildup along the border, however, remains unexplained. Officials in Cairo claim it is defensive, a reaction to Israel’s movements, but some in Israel fear it could be part of a larger strategic shift.
Despite the heightened rhetoric, security coordination between Jerusalem and Cairo has continued. The two countries are still cooperating on ceasefire and hostage negotiations with Hamas and the management of the Rafah border crossing. But at a political level, the tone has changed.
In Washington, Israel’s new ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, openly accused Egypt of violating the peace treaty, claiming that military bases in Sinai had been expanded beyond what the Camp David Accords allow. “These bases can only be used for offensive operations,” he warned. “That’s a clear violation, and it’s not something Israel can tolerate.”
Inside the Jewish state, the situation has become a growing concern for residents near the Egyptian border. Communities in the area have reported seeing an increase in Egyptian military activity, spotting troop movements on the other side of the fence, and hearing frequent explosions. Senior IDF officials have acknowledged the buildup but have attempted to downplay concerns, saying there is no intelligence indicating that Egypt has hostile intentions toward Israel.
On both sides of the border, there are elements eager to stoke tensions. Israeli intelligence has tracked a rise in Hebrew-language threats from Egyptian social media accounts, warning of destruction if Jerusalem provokes Cairo.
At the same time, in Israel, there is increasing talk about the long-term risks if Egypt’s government were to collapse. The country has already seen two governments overthrown in the past 14 years, and if the current government were to fall and be replaced by a radical leadership, Israel could find itself facing the largest military in the Arab world along its southern border.
Trump's Gaza plan
The situation deteriorated further after US President Donald Trump unveiled his plan for Gaza and his demands that Egypt and Jordan take in Gaza’s two million residents. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi canceled a planned visit to Washington, and Egyptian officials warned that any reduction in American military aid could jeopardize the peace treaty with Israel.
Political considerations on both sides are making de-escalation even more difficult. Egyptian leaders have avoided making any public declarations rejecting the possibility of conflict. Not because they want war but because they do not want to be seen as bowing to Trump or to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom are deeply unpopular in Egypt.
In Israel, the IDF does not currently view a military conflict with Egypt as an immediate threat, but the October 7 attacks have forced a reassessment of how they need to take every potential threat more seriously than in the past.
For now, Israel’s more immediate security concerns remain to the North. In Syria, the IDF is maintaining positions and recently warned it would strike if the new government in Damascus targets the country’s Druze population.
Meanwhile, in Jordan, Israeli intelligence is closely monitoring the possibility that Islamic radicals, emboldened by the success in Syria, could attempt to seize power. If Jordan were to fall, Israel would find itself facing a hostile front along its eastern border for the first time since 1967.
The coming weeks will be critical. For nearly half a century, Israel and Egypt have benefited from the peace forged at Camp David. For Jerusalem, the agreement meant securing peace with its most powerful Arab adversary. For Cairo, it meant breaking away from the Soviet bloc, aligning with the United States, and securing billions of dollars in military and economic aid.
So far, both Netanyahu and Sisi have remained largely silent on the growing tensions. That silence is a mistake. A clear statement from both leaders could calm the situation, reaffirm the importance of the treaty, and send a message that neither side is interested in allowing a crisis to spiral out of control.
The treaty has survived multiple wars in the region and numerous leadership changes, but that does not mean it can be taken for granted. The reality is that peace requires constant maintenance.
Yaakov Katz is co-author of a forthcoming book, While Israel Slept, about
the October 7 Hamas attacks, and is a senior fellow at the Jewish People
Policy Institute, a global Jewish think tank based in Jerusalem.
Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-845036
No comments:
Post a Comment