by Yoram Ettinger
In 2025, in contrast to conventional wisdom, Israel’s Jewish majority in the combined areas of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the pre-1967 Israel is not threatened by a potential “Arab demographic time bomb.”
*The number of annual Jewish births in Israel surged by 73% from 1995 (80,400) to 2024 (138,698), compared to a 18% increase of annual Arab births in Israel during the same period (from 36,500 to 42,911), as reported by the February 2025 Monthly Bulletin of Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS).
*The 2024 Jewish births (138,698) were 76% of total births (181,609), compared to 69% in 1995.
*In 2024 (based on 2022 data), the Jewish fertility rate (3 births per woman) is higher than the Muslim fertility rate (2.86). It is higher than the fertility rates in all Muslim countries other than Iraq and the sub-Sahara Muslim countries.
*In 1969, Israel’s and Judea and Samaria’s (West Bank’s) Arab fertility rate was 6 births higher than the Jewish fertility rate. In 2015, both fertility rates were at 3.13 births per woman, reflecting the dramatic Westernization of Arab demography in Judea and Samaria and pre-1967 Israel, triggered by Arab modernity, urbanization, the enhanced social status of Arab women, older wedding age (24), expanded participation of Arab women in higher-education and the job market, a shorter reproductive time (25-45 rather than 16-55) and the increased use of contraceptives.
*In 2023 (the latest available data), there were 41,345 Israeli Jewish deaths, compared to 31,575 in 1996, a 31% increase, compared to a 37% increase in 2022 (while the size of the population almost doubled!), which reflects a society growing younger. In 2023, there were 4,966 Israeli Muslim deaths, compared to 3,089 in 1996, a 61% increase, which reflects a society growing older.
*Israel’s robust Jewish fertility rate is attributed to the high-level of optimism, patriotism, attachment to Jewish roots, frontier mentality, communal solidarity, high regard for raising children, and a declining number of abortions (34% decline since 1990, while abortion policy is liberal).
*In 2025, there is a potential wave of Aliyah (Jewish immigration) of some 500,000 Olim (Jewish immigrants) from the Ukraine, Russia, other former Soviet republics, West Europe, Argentina, the USA, Australia, etc., requiring the upgrading of Aliyah in Israel’s national order of priorities (as it was until 1992, serving as an economic, educational, technological and a military springboard), and resuming a pro-active Aliyah policy.
*In 2025, contrary to conventional wisdom, Israel’s Jewish demographic momentum since the 1990s is due largely to the fertility rise in the secular sector, while the ultra-orthodox sector (which has the highest fertility rate) has experienced a moderate decline in fertility rate (due to a gradual integration into the job market and academia), and the stabilization of modern orthodox’ fertility rate. Israeli Jewish women are unique in experiencing a direct correlation between a rise of fertility rate, on the one hand, and a rise in urbanization, education and level of income, on the other hand.
*In 2025, Israel is the only Western democracy endowed with a relatively high fertility rate (almost twice as high as in the OECD), that facilitates further economic growth, minimizing dependency on migrant labor. Moreover, Israel’s thriving demography provides for bolstered national security (larger classes of military recruits), economy, technology and a more confident foreign policy.
*In 2025, the Western establishment persists in reverberating official Palestinian demographic numbers without due-diligence (no auditing), ignoring a 100% artificial inflation, which consists of the inclusion of overseas residents, double-counting of Jerusalem Arabs and Israeli Arabs married to Judea and Samaria Arabs, ignoring a significant net-emigration, inflated births – and deflated deaths – data (as documented below).
Westernization of Arab demography
*A dramatic Westernization of the Muslim fertility rate in Israel and in Judea and Samaria features a shift from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to less than 3 births in 2022 (2.86 births in pre-1967 Israel). It reflects the shift from a 70% rural Arab society in 1967 to a 78% urban society in 2025, in general, and the rising status of women (more educated than men), their wedding age (from 15 years old to 24 and still rising), the substantial use of contraceptives (70% of Arab women in Judea and Samaria), the shrinking of the reproductive period (from 16-55 to 24-45) and youth emigration.
*The median age of Judea and Samaria Arabs is 22 years old, compared to 18 years old in 2005.
*The Westernization of fertility rates has characterized all Muslim countries, other than the sub-Sahara region: Jordan (which is usually similar to Judea and Samaria Arabs) – 2.87 births per woman, Iran – 1.91, Saudi Arabia – 1.87, Morocco – 2.25, Iraq – 3.1, Egypt – 2.65, Yemen – 2.82, United Arab Emirates – 1.61, etc.
*The number of Arab deaths in Judea and Samaria has been systematically under-reported (for political power of clans and financial reasons), as documented by various studies since the British Mandate. For example, the 2007 Palestinian population census included Arabs who were born in 1845….
*The demographic and policy-making establishment of Israel and the West refrains from auditing the official Palestinian data, and therefore it does not report the following well-documented Palestinian departure from a credible conduct of population census:
- 500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian population census. However, internationally accepted procedures stipulate only a de-facto count, deducting migrants away for over a year. It was 325,000, as stated by the Head – and website – of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics in the aftermath of the first Palestinian census of 1997; increasing to 400,000 in 2005, as documented by the Palestinian Election Commission and Interior Ministry. The number grows daily due to overseas births.
- 380,000 East Jerusalem Arabs, who possess Israeli ID cards, are doubly-counted by Israel (as Israeli Arabs) and the Palestinian Authority (as Palestinians). The number grows daily due to births.
- Over 200,000 Arabs from Gaza and (mostly) Judea and Samaria, who married Israeli Arabs and received Israeli ID cards, are doubly-counted counted by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.
- 428,000 Arab emigrants from Judea and Samaria – since the first 1997 Palestinian census – are included in the population census. This malpractice ignores the 20,000 annual net-emigration in recent years of mostly young Arabs from Judea and Samaria. Net-emigration has been a systemic feature of the area, at least, since the Jordanian occupation in 1950. For example, 15,039 in 2024, 23,445 in 2023, 15,466 in 2022, 28,000 in 2021 and 26,357 in 2019, as documented by Israel’s Immigration and Population Authority, which documents all Jewish and Arab exists and entries via all of Israel’s land, air and sea international passages.
- The scope of Judea and Samaria Arabs’ net-emigration skyrocketed during Jordan’s occupation of the area (1950-1967), due to under-developed infrastructures of employment, education, health and transportation. It was similar to the scope of births. For example, net-emigration was 300,000 during 1961-1967, according to an August 28, 1970 document published by Israel’s Ministry of Defense. The scope of net emigration shifted from 5th gear to 2nd gear since 1967, due to the substantial Israeli investment in developing the aforementioned infrastructures.
- A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit. While the Palestinian Authority claimed an 8% increase in the number of births, the World Bank detected a 24% decrease.
*The aforementioned data documents a 1.75 million artificial inflation of the Palestinian numbers. Therefore, the Arab population of Judea and Samaria is 1.5 million and not 3.25 million claimed by the Palestinian authority.
The bottom line
*In 2025, in contrast to conventional wisdom, Israel’s Jewish majority in the combined areas of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the pre-1967 Israel is not threatened by a potential “Arab demographic time bomb.” In fact, the 69% Jewish majority in these combined areas benefits from a robust demographic tailwind of fertility rate and net-immigration.
Amb. (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
Source: https://theettingerreport.com/2025-israels-demographic-update-defies-conventional-wisdom/
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