by Seth J. Frantzman
Iran is laser-focused on what the Trump administration is doing and acting in accordance to salvage regional influence.
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Iran has “accelerated” a diplomatic campaign, its state media said on Thursday.
This is the latest message from Iran, days after it appeared that President Masoud Pezeshkian had been strong-armed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to step back from outreach to the US.
It also comes days after a report said Russia might help mediate with Washington. Clearly, many things are in motion in Tehran.
“The Islamic Republic has accelerated a diplomatic campaign in recent months to strengthen ties with neighbors as part of broader efforts to balance against the potential threats of an aggressive and uncompromising United States and an increasingly malign Israel,” Iran’s state media IRNA said.
“The foreign policy of amicable relations with neighbors, which Iran has implemented to varying degrees of urgency and success over the last four decades, has taken on new significance for the country as a belligerent US,” the report added.
It noted that the Trump administration is seeking to put pressure on Iran. It also noted that Tehran opposes new negotiations with Washington. “The diplomacy also comes as Israel has significantly ratcheted up tensions with Iran and its allies in West Asia.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei spoke to IRNA about Iran’s strategy today. He characterized it as dating from the 1980s when Iran was at war with Iraq. He said Pezeshkian has placed more emphasis on diplomacy in the region.
“Diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and regional capitals have been substantial, and Iranian officials have been speaking more frequently of the prominence of neighbors in Iran’s foreign policy,” the report noted.
“In circumstances where you sense that the international environment has turned less favorable compared to the past – for whatever reason, be it the United States’ policies, unilateralism, the European Union’s approach, etc. – that could be when you could count on the region,” Baqaei said.
Iran's plan to salvage influence in the region
Iran is sketching out a plan. It knows that the Arab states met in Cairo this week to present a plan for Gaza. Iran knows it suffered a setback in terms of influence in Syria and that its Hezbollah proxy is weakened.
The Trump administration has also sanctioned the Houthis in Yemen. Baghdad likely faces some pressure from Washington, as well. As such, Iran is a bit on the backfoot in some Arab states in the region.
“Scenarios as to how the US president would proceed vis-à-vis Iran and corresponding contingency plans have been developed, according to the Iranian official,” IRNA noted.
Iran says it is pursuing a policy of “neighbors first.” Who are the neighbors? Turkey and Iran have had a diplomatic spat this week. Iraq is seen by Iran as a kind of “near abroad,” and Iran has many militias it backs in Iraq.
In the Caucasus, Iran seeks to develop a trade corridor. Iran also does outreach to Oman. The concept of “zero problems” with neighbors is one that Turkey pursued in the early 2000s. That policy fell apart during the Syrian civil war.
Iran now appears to be trying the old Turkish approach. However, like Ankara, it has many problems with its neighbors.
Iran is laser-focused on what the Trump administration is doing. The supreme leader said negotiating with the United States government would be “unwise” and “not honorable.”
IRNA noted that on Sunday, Pezeshkian said he “was committed to the position outlined by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei regarding negotiations with Washington even though his own view had initially been different.”
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson added that he thinks “the circumstances are not conducive because Europeans either unwilling or unable to lift sanctions due to their inability or because of their twisted perceptions regarding the current state of play; they suppose, unrealistically, that they can push for more without giving any concessions sanctions lifting-wise, and that’s not going to work for us.”
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-844943
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