Thursday, November 13, 2025

Can the IDF avert an explosion of terror in the West Bank? - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

The West Bank has been largely ignored by the media due to Israel's other fronts - but that does not mean it was ignored by the IDF and Jerusalem's security apparatus.

 

IDF soldiers operate during an Israeli raid in Tammun near Tubas in the West Bank, November 4, 2025
IDF soldiers operate during an Israeli raid in Tammun near Tubas in the West Bank, November 4, 2025
(photo credit: REUTERS/RANEEN SAWAFTA)

 

Terror threats in the West Bank appear to be growing. Over the last year, the IDF has been able to keep most of these threats in check. However, with a ceasefire in Gaza and Israel relaxing its guard slightly, it’s possible that enemies may try to take advantage of the situation.

On Thursday, reports said that the IDF, police and security services were able to thwart a major terror cell in Bethlehem. Reports noted that “the months-long investigation led to the arrest of approximately 40 Hamas operatives during more than 15 operations, carried out by IDF reservists from the Etzion Brigade, the elite Duvdevan unit and counterterror forces. During the raids, weapons including M16 rifles were seized.”

The reports indicate that terrorist infrastructure was found in this operation. The terrorists in Bethlehem planned shooting attacks and were apparently ready to carry out the attacks soon.

The success against the terrorists in and around Bethlehem is important. Israel’s Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir praised the head of the IDF’s Central Command Maj.-Gen. Avi Bluth this week after a major drill was concluded in the West Bank. “This is an unprecedented exercise, the first of its kind in the IDF. As part of it, the new Eastern Division, established as one of the lessons learned from the war, is being evaluated in full divisional format. One of our lessons from October 7 is the responsibility for defense in the area and the change in our conception of security , we neutralize threats as they emerge. We are doing that here as well,” Zamir said.

The new Eastern Division, the 96th, is also known as Gilad. It is one of several regional divisions that protect Israel’s border. It was established over the last year because of the growing concerns about the Jordan Valley and the desire to beef up the military presence there.

An Israeli soldier looks out from a mosque near Salfit in the West Bank, November 13, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/ALI SAWAFTA)
An Israeli soldier looks out from a mosque near Salfit in the West Bank, November 13, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/ALI SAWAFTA)
Zamir said this week that “the scenarios we have been practicing in recent days are situations we must never reach. We must act and neutralize threats before they reach our doorstep, that is our duty. We will reinforce our troops wherever necessary in order to continue countering terrorism and prevent the next threat from arising.”

The drill and the bust of the terror cell in Bethlehem show that the IDF and Israel’s various security services take the threats seriously. This follows a trend that began around four years ago in the northern West Bank in which terror cells in Jenin and Nablus began to acquire more weapons.

IDF's latest attempts to 'break wave' of illegal firearms

A flow of illegal firearms, primarily M-4/M-16 type rifles, began to make their way to the northern West Bank. This fueled a wave of attacks and an IDF response which called Operation Break the Wave. Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups were weakened during years of operations. However, the flow in rifles appears to be growing. Daily drone interceptions along the Egyptian border reveal M-16 type rifles being smuggled by large quadcopter type drones.

There are also the threats from Jordan. Reports have indicated that Iran would like to try to stir up trouble in Jordan and the West Bank. There have been several deadly attacks at the border crossing near Jericho. In addition there is weapons smuggling.

However, the bust of the terror cell in Bethlehem points to another problem. It is possible that the center of gravity of the threat is moving from the northern West Bank to the southern West Bank. For years the area around Bethlehem was quiet. It was quiet because the IDF conducted night raids frequently to keep things in check. This involved detaining suspects and making sure that terror infrastructure did not grow.

After October 7, the raids and activity in the West Bank increased. Bethlehem has often been a source of problems because of the refugee camps in and around the city. There are terrorists who have operated from Dheisheh camp and Aida camp. Hamas has had its tentacles in these areas along with other groups such as PFLP. It should be recalled that during the Second Intifada terrorists from Bethlehem went to the Christian town of Beit Jala, a suburb, and fired on Gilo in Jerusalem. Bethlehem has grown so much, and so have Jerusalem, that these cities are basically one large urban area now.

Israeli extremism grows across West Bank

Another challenge in the West Bank is the growing incidents of Israeli extremists attacking Palestinian Arabs. A number of incidents have occurred recently and there appears to be an increase in these clashes.

Zamir, in his statement this week, condemned these attacks. “We are aware of the recent violent incidents in which Israeli civilians attacked Palestinians and Israelis. I strongly condemn them. The IDF will not tolerate criminal behavior by a small minority that tarnishes the law-abiding public. These acts contradict our values, cross a red line, and divert the attention of our troops from their mission, defending the communities and carrying out operations. We are determined to stop this phenomenon and will act decisively until justice is served.”

However, his condemnation doesn’t necessarily mean the trend will stop. The trend appears to mostly affect the Northern West Bank and areas near Tulkarm or Taybeh or other Arab towns and villages. However, it’s plausible the trend will grow. The trend is currently downplayed on the political level.

A Palestinian man inspects burned property in a mosque near Salfit in the West Bank, November 13, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/ALI SAWAFTA)
A Palestinian man inspects burned property in a mosque near Salfit in the West Bank, November 13, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/ALI SAWAFTA)
However, the IDF statement and videos posted online, along with reports, suggest a growing challenge. It’s not clear if these clashes, between Israelis and Palestinian civilians, will lead to some kind of crisis or cycle of violence; or whether other Hamas-backed terrorist cells in the West Bank may be activated.

What is clear is that with the ceasefire in Gaza going into its second month, there are many challenges for Israel. The West Bank has been largely ignored by the media spotlight because of the other fronts. This doesn’t mean it was ignored by the security forces.

In fact, the new Jordan Valley division, the training and the raid in Bethlehem, show that the IDF and Shin Bet and others take very seriously what is happening. The question is whether Israel’s enemies are also laser focused on trying to create a new front. 


Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-873766

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

No comments:

Post a Comment