Thirsty nation: How water mismanagement could topple Iran's leadership - analysis - Alex Winston

 

by Alex Winston

Tehran's dams are failing due to decades of human error, not just climate change. The deepening water crisis risks nationwide protests, fueling opposition plans for a new government.

 

A youth drinks water from a fountain in Mellat Park, as the Iran faces sever water shortages, in Tehran on November 9, 2025. Iran was laying plans on November 8, 2025, to cut off water supplies periodically to Tehran's 10-million-strong population as it battles its worst drought in many decades.

(photo credit: ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

 

The numbers tell the story. Tehran’s Amir Kabir Dam now sits at just 8% capacity, and the capital’s reservoirs are half-empty. Water-pressure reductions have begun across the city, with officials quietly warning that the taps may soon run dry altogether.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has already admitted the unthinkable. “If it still does not rain, they [citizens] have to evacuate Tehran.”

Iran’s “Day Zero,” the phrase used when the government first declared emergency holidays to conserve resources, has gone from theoretical to imminent. The crisis is no longer a future scenario but is happening in real time, exposing the corrosion of a regime that has spent decades mismanaging its most basic lifeline.

The government blames climate change and sanctions for Iran’s water crisis. But the truth, as Iranian water experts repeatedly emphasize, lies in decades of human error: overbuilding dams, draining aquifers, and politicizing resource management.

Between 2012 and 2018, Iran more than doubled the number of its dams, from 316 to 647, many of which were built without environmental assessments. The result is a network of failing reservoirs, collapsing groundwater tables, and a 25 percent loss of urban water through decaying pipelines.

IRANIAN PRESIDENT Masoud Pezeshkian attends a news conference in Tehran last week. At a cultural event, he was told not to read poetry in Azerbaijani, says the writer. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

In July, Pezeshkian himself warned that “the crisis is more serious than what is being discussed today.” His call for “integrated water-soil-crop engineering” and the establishment of academic-government task forces sounded like a reform plan. Yet just a few months later, his government is rationing pressure, debating prayers for rain, and watching dam levels plummet.

Between 2018 and 2021, water shortages in Khuzestan and Isfahan triggered protests that spread across the country before being brutally crushed. Today’s shortages risk the same outcome.

Mismanagement has turned Iran’s natural drought into a national crisis.

Would Israel become a water management partner?

As the crisis deepens, the clerical establishment has retreated into theology. The head of Tehran’s City Council recently urged the city’s citizens to revive the ancient ritual of praying for rain.

However, the statistics show damning proof. Rainfall is 40 percent below the 57-year average, groundwater in Tehran has fallen 12 meters in the past two decades, and 19 major dams nationwide are effectively dry.

Behind the scenes, Iranian opposition leaders are aware of the situation and planning for a different future in the event the regime is overthrown.

In September, in Tel Aviv, the Jerusalem Post met with a seven-member Iranian opposition delegation, led by Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, alongside Israeli Minister for Innovation, Science and Technology Gila Gamliel, to discuss what comes after the Islamic Republic.

“We have come to Israel to see what kind of expertise Israeli experts have for the problems that Iran faces, for example, the water crisis,” Ghasseminejad told the Post at the time.

The visit formed part of the Iran Prosperity Project, a 170-page post-revolution reconstruction blueprint supported by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Among its 15 sections is an entire chapter on water management and environmental restoration, two areas in which the current regime has failed.

Gamliel, who hosted the delegation, was enthusiastic about any future collaboration, telling the Post that “Israel is the solution to the problem.” 

“You see what this regime is doing, making its people suffer without water, with air pollution, and energy shortages. We are the solution to all of this,” she stated.

“The Crown Prince [Reza Pahlavi] and I see Israel as a strategic partner for the people of Iran and for the future government of Iran,” Ghasseminejad said, concurring with Gamliel.

“What’s really a miracle in Israel is that you don’t have a lot of water, but you’ve managed to build a vibrant society and provide water for industry and agriculture. Under this regime, many Iranians don’t have water for many hours per day.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also aired his thoughts on the topic, in an August address to the Iranian people, stating, “The thirst for water in Iran is only matched by the thirst for freedom.”

The prime minister pledged that once the regime falls, Israeli experts “will flood into every Iranian city bringing cutting-edge technology and know-how.”

Back in Tehran, Pezeshkian’s government continues to ration and reassure, while citizens install rooftop tanks and pray for rain. 

Iran’s environmental collapse is the most measurable proof of its political decay. It shows what happens when a revolutionary ideology outlives its administrative competence. The country that once exported oil now imports bottled water.

If the Islamic Republic cannot quench its people’s thirst, others are already preparing to do so. For now, Tehran’s dams remain empty.

Alex Winston

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-873743

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