Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Michigan Demonstrates Why Elections Matter - M. Joseph Sheppard

by M. Joseph Sheppard

According to the Lansing State Journal, a GOP legislator, State Rep. Pete Lund, is introducing a bill to move Michigan's 16 Electoral College votes to a proportional basis instead of the current winner-take-all.  

This has, rightly from their point of view, set off alarm bells at the likes of "progressive" site Daily Kos, which sees the possibility of a Democratic 2016 presidential victory slipping away – although "rigged" is how they describe it.  On the other hand, it was that site that advised that the black Democratic crossover vote in Mississippi's GOP runoff to defeat the conservative Republican Chris McDaniel (who came first in the primary) was "democracy."  They now selectively rail against the constitutional Article 2, Section 1 Michigan move to proportional EC vote as "undemocratic."  The United States Constitution allows each state to determine how electoral votes are proportioned – Maine and Nebraska do it by congressional district won, for example.

The Democratic Party has won Michigan by an average of 53% over the last five elections.  Under the proposed change, instead of giving the Dems all 16 Electoral College votes, the split would be 11 to the Democrats and 5 to the Republicans under the new law.

If the law passes, and Michigan's vote in 2016 remains within historic bounds, it will give the GOP the equivalent of another Nebraska, which has 5 EC votes, which could be vital in a close race.  As set out in an Electoral College analysis based on the GOP's midterm's Senate victories, the Republicans are very much in the hunt for 2016.

However, even with this best-case scenario, if the Dems win Virginia for the third consecutive time they would win the White House just by one vote.  If the proposed Michigan revamp passes, the GOP will still have enough Electoral College votes to win.  In fact, they would need only one more EC vote to take them to 269, a tie, at which point the Republican House would choose the president, and the Senate would choose the vice president.

All pundits' eyes should be on the Michigan legislature's voting reforms, which may determine the presidential race for the entire USA.  If the bill passes, it may also have bearing on who the GOP's vice-presidential nominee is, as the closer the Republican vote is to a 50/50 split, the better the GOP's electoral chances are.  For perhaps the first time, a VP nominee doesn't have to deliver his state (which rarely happens anyway) – just narrow the loss.  
Michigan governor Rick Snyder was re-elected with, from a near ideal result for the GOP – 50.9% of the vote.

M. Joseph Sheppard

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/11/michigan_demonstrates_why_elections_matter.html

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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