by Joseph Puder
One critical element is still missing.
The Iranian people remember 2009, when, during massive demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere in the country, the masses cried out, “Obama are you with us or with them?,” referring to the ayatollahs’ regime. President Obama ignored the demonstrators and essentially backed the repressive theocracy. Today, in the midst of the current demonstrations, the current president is much more sympathetic to the Iranian demonstrators than Obama was. But although President Trump’s verbal support is comforting to the Iranian demonstrators, it is not enough.
A kinetic operation by the United States or Israel might help bring down the regime, especially if the supreme leader and Islamic Republic leadership are eliminated and there is no damage incurred by the wider population and civil infrastructure. Such a scenario might also unite many more Iranians than those currently mobilized in the streets. Although Iranians generally resent foreign intervention, many cheered the Israeli attack on Iran last June.
Clearly, the majority of Iranians want change. Regrettably, the opposition forces who seek to bring down the ayatollahs’ regime are diffused. The political opposition to the regime in the diaspora is split, and the domestic opposition is largely in prison and harshly repressed. The only effective way to bring down the regime would be to split the security services and have the deserters join the opposition. Such a situation would provide the defenseless demonstrators with potentially armed men. There is also a remote possibility that elements within the Islamic Republic seek change.
Among the more recognizable opposition leaders is Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince, son of the deposed former shah, who resides in the U.S. Many Iranians look with fondness to life before the 1979 Islamic revolution, when Iranian society was more open and there were closer ties with the Western world, cultural diversity, and economic prosperity. Not all segments of the population, however, enjoyed these aspects. Pahlavi has failed to build an effective political organization and has quarreled with other opposition groups, thus splitting the opposition to the delight of the regime. Yet Pahlavi has the support of many Western governments, especially Israel and the U.S. The Trump administration has yet to endorse him.
The current demonstrations in Iran are enjoying wide public support. The rial, Iran’s currency, has crashed, unemployment is widespread, and a harsh drought has led the regime to ration water. The ayatollahs have not taken responsibility for the dire economic conditions in the country, and there is little likelihood that conditions will improve. The regime is accused of corruption; mismanagement; and wasting money on funding proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and Sanaa instead of investing in strategies that would benefit the Iranian people.
For the Iranian people, the situation evokes a sense of déjà vu. They recall previous demonstrations and are concerned that what they are witnessing might not change the reality any more than it did in the past.
Let us also not forget that the minorities in Iran, which constitute almost half of the population and hate the theocratic regime. The Kurds in western Iran account for approximately 10% of the population, and their long suffering under the ayatollahs has fostered several Kurdish militias. The Kurds have requested American support for many years; none was rendered. The Baluchis, in southeastern Iran, are also in a state of rebellion against the regime, as are the Arabs of Khuzestan in southwestern Iran. Khuzestan, the country’s primary source of oil wealth, was once predominantly Arab. However, in recent decades, the ayatollahs brought Persians and Lors into the province. Azeris, in northwestern Iran, are the largest minority, and they have cultural and linguistic issues with the regime.
The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seems to be sizing up the protests and even showing relative sympathy in light of the dire economic situation. Will he launch a crackdown? That may depend on whether some Iranian military elements defect and help the protesters. Should Iranian military elements join the protesters, it would constitute a first time since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Recent comments by Donald Trump that he would intervene if Iran started cracking down on the protesters reportedly have some within the regime taking his warning seriously in the wake of his having bombed the Islamic Republic in June 2025 and abducted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro this month.
It is questionable whether Trump would use sufficient and sustained U.S. power in the event of a crackdown. All of this makes the coming days critical for the protesters. Either the protests will increase in size, focus, and leadership, and gain some kind of military support, or the regime will start reacting, causing the protests to peter out, as in the past.
We are still in a wait-and-see moment; the regime’s fall is not imminent. The regime may indeed be hated, but without a unifying leader of the opposition and consequential defection from the regime’s security services, the protests may be halted. Protests in Tehran and across the country are growing, and as this plays out, dramatic surprises may yet be witnessed.
Joseph Puder
Source: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/01/what_needs_to_happen_for_regime_change_in_iran.html
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