by Shir Perets
Recent near-escalations were the result of miscalculation risks, which in turn strengthened military cooperation between US and Israel, Tamir Hayman said.
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Israel came close to striking Iran twice in recent weeks due to mutual miscalculations and fears of a surprise Israeli operation, former Military Intelligence Directorate chief Tamir Hayman said in an interview with 103FM on Monday.
According to Hayman, Iran’s preparations created a “coordination imperative” between Israel and Washington. He said recent near-escalations were the result of miscalculation risks, which in turn strengthened military cooperation between the IDF and US forces.
He added that US actions regarding Iran were already underway and that future steps could range from information and influence operations to cyberattacks, special operations, or even open war, depending on developments.
He noted that “there is no zero action at the moment,” and described an American influence campaign that is already active.
Hayman pointed to a wave of unexplained reports, rumors, and videos emerging from Iran, suggesting these may be part of a cyber-based influence effort, combined with local disruption and subversion operations.
While acknowledging that some incidents may be coincidental, he said the ongoing influence activities are contributing to visible confusion in Iran’s internal information space.
Discussing possible changes in Iran’s leadership, Hayman said that scenarios once considered unlikely could now occur.
These included both nationalist rhetoric and more significant shifts, such as a prolonged revolutionary period led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which could result in a temporary leader being installed under a military dictatorship.
Hayman said that as long as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains in power, a full-scale strike on Israel is unlikely due to his traditionally cautious leadership style. However, should a more daring IRGC-backed leader emerge, the strategic calculus could change.
Reviewing Tehran’s response to internal unrest, Hayman said economic relief efforts have failed, and forceful crackdowns have been ineffective. He suggested that negotiations with the United States could become the regime’s only viable option for easing economic pressure through sanctions relief.
Talks were “not an absurd scenario,” he said, particularly if Iran offered a dramatic concession on uranium enrichment that could entice Washington to the table.
“If the US conducts only a symbolic strike and we are attacked, we will not contain it,” he said. “If Washington mounts a heavy response and our added value is marginal, we should act wisely.”
Any Israeli response would depend on scope of US action
Hayman said any Israeli response would depend on the scope and nature of US action.
He added that Iran had fully restored its missile production lines since the Israel-Iran war but had not yet upgraded them as originally planned. Tehran, he said, is seeking Chinese assistance to expand its production capacity.
Arguing against a new war with Iran at this time, Hayman said such conflicts are costly and displace thousands of Israelis. He framed the strategic choice as either a regime change or, if unavoidable, a limited agreement to restrict Iran’s capabilities – though “right now, an agreement is a mistake,” he said.
Further, he outlined low-probability but plausible scenarios, including a harsh IRGC-led military regime or a leadership change backed by external forces. More likely, he said, were internal reforms aimed at reasserting control over the population.
The regime, he said, portrays internal upheaval as being driven by the US and Israel, encouraging Iranians to mobilize against outside threats. “There are two million people there whose identities are unclear and who are violent,” he warned, adding that the regime still holds leverage.
Protesters within Iran call for ‘Death to Khamenei’ as Parliament discusses ‘four-front war’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday announced that the situation in the Islamic Republic is “under total control,” despite Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying that it was “fighting its enemies on four fronts.”
On Sunday, as Iran’s media blackout continued, Ghalibaf stated that the Islamic Republic was fighting its enemies in the economic, cognitive, military, and anti-terrorism spheres, according to a report by Tasnim.
He added that the US and Israel were sowing disorder in the country because of Israel’s loss in the Israel-Iran war in June, and that the goal of the US was to create casualties.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, videos obtained by Iran International from the burial of a deceased protester contained sounds of chants proclaiming, “Death to Khamenei.”
Iran International also shared videos of protesters in the capital city shouting, “Fear the values, we are all united.”
Shir Perets
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-883070
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