by Boaz Bismuth
Everyone involved in the Geneva negotiations between Iran and the West knew their result had been predetermined • As for Israel -- the Iranians will continue to use the occasional military parade to threaten us.
The negotiators in Geneva on
Sunday after the deal was reached
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Photo credit: AP  |
On Thursday, the owner of the cafeteria at the
event hall in Geneva where representatives from the West and Iran were
huddled told me that Saturday was going to be a long day, and that he
had been instructed to stay open until 3 a.m. on Sunday, to supply the
diplomats with refreshments to keep them going. The deal between the
P5+1 and Tehran was signed at 3:30 a.m. Sunday. The cafeteria owner's
intelligence proved remarkably accurate.
The last five days of the nuclear negotiations
were surreal. The setting was in Geneva, a cold, expensive and
frustrating city; the site was in a huge bunker-style hall, cut off from
the flurry of news updates; and the participants were accidental
heroes, who truly believed they were saving the world.
But even before Nov. 20, the date in which the
third round of nuclear negotiations began in Geneva, Iran donned an
appeasing smile. France could not be allowed to rain on the parade for
the second time in two weeks. The world wanted a deal and the hell with
the ban on uranium enrichment. In Geneva, world powers determined that
Iran was en route to becoming a normal country, despite the regime's
history of violently crushing protests, as it did in 2009, despite its
habit of hanging people in city squares, and despite the fact that it
had threatened a U.N. member state -- Israel -- in the midst of the
negotiations.
I hate to curb everyone's enthusiasm, but the
Geneva accord was a setup -- a result rigged and foreseen. U.S.
President Barack Obama, reeling from his foreign policy failures in
Libya, Syria and Egypt, as well as the "Obamacare" fiasco, wanted to see
some results. He needed a new hurdle to clear and demonstrate success
and he chose to tackle the highest hurdle around -- Iran.
Tehran did not remain oblivious to
Washington's eagerness to ink a deal. The Americans were not alone --
the Russians and the Chinese had preceded them back in the 2009 Geneva
talks. Britain and Germany, facilitated by EU foreign policy chief
Catherine Ashton, were quick to align themselves with the U.S., leaving
France alone. What could Paris do? There are only so many times it could
stand there saying "non."
Nerve-wracking negotiations
Even before the parties began their
negotiations, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exacerbated his tone, trying to
evoke a crisis. A top European source told me the night before the
talks that the Iranians had decided to "play hardball," despite knowing
that they could probably negotiate a deal in 10 minutes, and despite the
fact that the ending to the Swiss scenario had already been written.
Khamenei knew that the Geneva bazaar into
which he had sent his negotiators had somewhat of a captive audience,
willing to do just about anything to leave with a piece of paper
resembling an agreement. He was so sure of himself that not only did he
call Israel by various beastly names, he predicted it would have less
than a stellar future -- or no future at all -- while simultaneously
drawing his own red lines.
On the second day of the negotiations, when
Israel Hayom reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was
making his way to Geneva -- a fact that was kept secret from the media
-- the Intercontinental hotel in Geneva, located just across from the
negotiations venue, began preparing for the arrival of several VIP
guests.
On Thursday, as the Iranians busied themselves
with "re-establishing their faith and trust in the West" (in some
world-turned-upside-down scenario), Ashton's associates began
formulating an alternative plan. Since semantics played just as
important a role as the facts, they began to think of another creative
solution in lieu of a deal, but there was no need. Iran arrived in
Geneva eager to sign an "interim agreement" that would -- much like the
deal signed between the U.S. and Russia on Syria -- legitimize the
ayatollahs' regime and allow it to keep what it has.
Iran, which has been a nuclear threshold state for a while now, has not felt this sought after in a long time.
Then came the weekend, when some in the media
felt that if the Iranian bomb did not do them in, the negotiations
would. Iran opted for some doublespeak, with Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif optimistic, while his deputy projected a more somber
position.
By Saturday, the relevant foreign ministers
had arrived. British Foreign Secretary William Hague spoke of the
difficulties, a sentiment echoed by his German counterpart Guido
Westerwelle; French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius spoke of a "stern
position" and a "solid deal," while his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
reminded everyone that we had never before been so close to reaching a
deal.
Only U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was
calm enough to break away from the talks for a short excursion around
town, to buy his wife some Swiss chocolates. A romantic, an optimist, or
just a man who knew how things would end?
The night was nerve-wracking, and if not for
the presence of international reporters, Israeli and Iranian journalists
might have simply fallen into each other's arms. On a side note, the
Iranian reporters were probably the only silver lining of the Geneva
talks: I cannot remember such remarkable interaction between Israelis
and Iranians since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. We ate together, we
laughed together -- we even shared information.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=13573
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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