by Boaz Bismuth
The problem is that Corker finds himself in a type of Catch-22. On the one hand, he wants an aggressive bill, strong enough to handcuff the administration. However, he needs to be flexible if he wants the support of his Democratic colleagues, to give the bill the number of votes required to override a presidential veto.
First Lausanne, now
Washington: The nuclear deal with Iran isn't expected to fade from the
headlines this week, mainly in the United States. The Senate Foreign
Relations Committee on Tuesday will vote on a joint bill proposal put
forth by Senators Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.).
While the debate this
week will be an internal American matter, the cynics in Washington say
the Republican senator from Tennessee, who is also the committee
chairman, intends to take just as hard a stand against the
administration as the one taken by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif. The problem is that Corker finds himself in a type of
Catch-22. On the one hand, he wants an aggressive bill, strong enough to
handcuff the administration. However, he needs to be flexible if he
wants the support of his Democratic colleagues, to give the bill the
number of votes required to override a presidential veto.
According to the bill,
if a permanent deal between the West and Iran is signed by the June 30
deadline, it will have to first go through both houses of Congress for
review. In this time frame -- 60 days -- the administration won't be
able to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Iran -- not even
partially.
Both the Senate and
House will need to green light the removal of sanctions. The
administration, suffice it to say, very much wants the bill to fail. It
believes the bill will torpedo the deal, and that Iran likely won't
agree to such a condition being attached. Obama has warned that in such a
scenario the world will accuse the U.S. of ruining the deal. It would
be a bit ironic if Obama hurdled the Iranian obstacle only to be stopped
in his tracks by the American one. Iran, as a reminder, wants all
sanctions lifted -- immediately. But Iran, for those who have forgotten,
really just wants everything: no more sanctions; to join the family of
nations; to upgrade its international and regional status; and if
possible (it is), then also a nuclear bomb -- pretty please.
The lucky number (from
the perspective of both the Republicans and the administration), is 67.
That is the number that provides a two-thirds majority, which would
allow the Senate to override a White House veto of the bill.
Senator Corker claims
he is missing two to three votes to get to that number. As of today, all
the Republican senators are expected to vote in favor, along with nine
Democratic senators and one independent. The American press is reporting
that maybe just four votes are missing. We can assume that if the
required senators are found by Tuesday, then Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell will call for a vote.
The White House is
applying immense pressure on the Democrats. The two Democratic senators
feeling the most heat are Ben Cardin from Maryland and Chuck Schumer
from New York. Schumer, who normally holds very hawkish views when it
comes to Israel's security, is expected to replace Senate Minority
Leader Harry Reid. Schumer needs to choose between loyalty to the boss
and loyalty to his principles. It is no simple matter. Cardin, too, is
struggling to decide. He has also received phone calls from Obama.
It was clear a deal would be
drafted in Lausanne, despite the last-minute games. It is also clear
that on Tuesday the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will vote to pass
the bill. The big question is what the bill will ultimately look like
and how it will be softened to prevent the Democratic senators from
getting cold feet. The ball is in Congress' court this week. Supporters
of the deal with Iran have reason for concern.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12239
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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