by Prof. Efraim Inbar
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 294EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: An American-Iranian entente that leaves Teheran with the capability to produce nuclear weapons and which strengthens the Iranian drive for regional hegemony is the most serious challenge to Israel’s national security in the near future. For Israel, none of the other Mideast upheavals and uncertainties pose nearly as great a threat.
The Middle East is in great turmoil. The statist order that has underpinned the region for a century has collapsed. Several states have lost their monopoly over the use of force and are no longer able to provide law and order. This is especially true of Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria. Even Egypt, the only historic Arab state, has had difficulties effectively enforcing its sovereignty over its territory. Many of the militias challenging these state entities have a radical Islamist ideology, reflecting the rise in the appeal of political Islam in the Arab world. In contrast to the leaders of these states, who are inefficient and corrupt, the Islamists actually deliver services to the people and have a reputation for being brutal but honest. However, the likes of Al Qaida in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or the so called Islamic State (IS) are hardly the proper agents for modernizing their environments and their popularity dooms the Arab world to continuous ignorance and poverty. For this and other reasons, Israel will need to remain vigilant in the years ahead.
Outside Looking In
The
decline of the Arab world has been paralleled by the rise of non-Arab
Muslim powers – Turkey and Iran. Both countries fare better on
development indices and display nowadays an ambitious foreign policy
fueled by imperial and Islamist impulses. Under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and
his ‘zero problems’ approach to foreign policy, Turkey has gradually
distanced itself from the West. In 2003, for example, Ankara rejected
the United States’ request to open a “northern front” against Iraqi
forces. More recently, Turkey has opposed sanctions levied by the United
Nations and the West against Russia and Iran.
For
its part, Iran has successfully advanced its nuclear program despite
the displeasure of the international community. Comparatively, recent
developments in the Middle East and beyond have also allowed Tehran to
establish a ‘Shiite Crescent’ stretching from Tehran to the eastern
Mediterranean. This has provided Iran with countless opportunities to
project power into the Middle East and Balkans, much to the chagrin of
Saudi Arabia and others. Indeed, the successes of Iranian Shiite proxies
in Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa underscore the Tehran quest for
hegemony in the Middle East.
By
contrast, US influence around the Middle East appears to be in decline,
primarily as a result of the Obama administration’s foreign policy
outlook. Correcting Washington’s overextension in the Islamic world is
indeed necessary, but insensitivity to the concerns of its allies such
as Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia is destructive to the regional balance
of power.
In
this respect, Washington’s efforts to strike a deal with Iran that
basically legitimizes its nuclear breakout status and awards Tehran the
role of the regional policeman will be viewed by Cairo, Riyadh and
Jerusalem as a colossal strategic mistake. The inevitable result will be
further nuclear proliferation as none of these countries are likely to
want to stay behind in uranium enrichment capabilities. Moreover, the
regional instability could lead to more bloodshed. Relying on a radical
and revisionist regime in Tehran to provide stability is the height of
strategic folly.
The View from Jerusalem
The
implications of the Middle East’s ongoing turmoil for Israel’s security
are mixed. Like Iran and Turkey, a democratic and politically stable
Israel is also a rising non-Arab power and a player in the regional
balance of power. The power differential between Israel’s national might
and its neighbors has further increased, given that it has managed to
prosper economically and develop a high-tech powerful military. In
addition, the strong armies of Iraq and Syria have disappeared,
decreasing the chances for a large-scale conventional encounter with
Israel. Moreover, the pro-Western Sunni states such as Egypt, Jordan and
Saudi Arabia see Israel as an ally against a rising Iran, as well as
against radical Islamist movements. This also comes at a time when the
United States is viewed in many quarters as a less dependable ally.
By
contrast, low intensity challenges might intensify. The domestic
problems plaguing weakened Arab states make them increasingly
susceptible to radical Islam and more prone to terrorist violence. As
their leaders lose their grip over state territory and borders become
more porous, armed groups and terrorists gain greater freedom of action.
Moreover, as weakened states lose control over their security
apparatus, national arsenals of conventional (and non-conventional) arms
become increasingly vulnerable, which may result in the emergence of
increasingly well-armed, politically dissatisfied groups that seek to
harm Israel. For example, following the fall of Gaddafi, Libyan SA-7
anti-air missiles and anti-tank RPGs have reached Hamas in Gaza. The IS
even fights with American weapons captured from the Iraqi army.
Similarly,
in the event of the Assad regime collapsing, Syria’s advanced arsenal
of conventional weapons could easily end up in the hands of Hizballah or
other radical elements. This, in turn, raises the prospect of an
emboldened Hizballah and Hamas – both of whom are Iranian proxies
located along Israel’s borders – renewing their campaigns of violence.
In recent years, the fallout from the Arab Spring has helped to detract
attention away from the Palestinian issue. In addition, the Palestinian
Authority’s (PA) ability to harm Israel in order to reignite
international interest is also very limited. As a result, a weak PA has
come under increasing pressure from the popular Hamas. A Palestinian
strategic miscalculation, leading to the eruption of another round of
violence, is a possibility that Israel cannot ignore. Nevertheless, so
far Israel has been successful in containing the threats from sub-state
groups and in limiting their potential damage.
The
emergence of an uncertain and unstable strategic environment is
conducive to strategic surprises. Israeli intelligence is challenged by a
plethora of new actors and leaders whose modus operandi is far from
clear. Israel has a large and sophisticated intelligence apparatus. Yet
it is not immune to surprises. Therefore, it would be wise to prepare
for worst-case scenarios, rather than succumb to rosy assessments.
Looking West (in more ways than one)
The
turmoil in the Arab world is also changing the strategic landscape in
the Eastern Mediterranean basin, where elements of radical Islam are
gaining control. Tunisia, Libya, Sinai in Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria
and Turkey all play host to groups with Islamist tendencies, thereby
threatening the currently unrestricted access to this area by Israel and
the West. Approximately 90 percent of Israel’s foreign trade is carried
out via the Mediterranean, making freedom of navigation in this area
critical for Israel’s economic well-being. Moreover, its chances of
becoming energy independent and a significant exporter of gas is linked
to Israel’s ability to secure free passage for its maritime trade and to
defend its newly discovered hydrocarbon fields, Leviathan and Tamar.
These developments require greater Israeli efforts in the naval arena.
Indeed, Israel is engaged in building a robust security system for the
gas fields and has procurement plans for additional vessels.
As
with other parts of the Middle East, the assessment in Jerusalem is
that the key factor in the developing regional balance of power is
Iran’s nuclearization. This would be a “game changer” that only Israel
has the capability to prevent. Netanyahu’s recent electoral victory left
in power the only leader that might have the political courage to order
a military strike to obstruct the Iranian progress towards acquiring
nuclear weapons. Indeed, his victory was quietly welcomed in the
capitals of the moderate Arab states that are terrified of Iran and have
little time for Obama. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are good examples.
Accordingly,
Israel is watching with growing bewilderment the endeavor of the Obama
administration to implement a “grand bargain” with Iran. This puts
Jerusalem on an inevitable collision course with its most important
ally. Israel continues to benefit from a large reservoir of sympathy
among the populace of the United States, and most notably within the
Republican controlled Congress. Yet, while Obama is not popular, as
president he can extract heavy costs in the military, diplomatic and
strategic arenas. The remaining 22 months until he leaves office must be
weathered with minimum damage to the American-Israeli strategic
partnership, particularly if Israel chooses to make good on its threat
not to allow Iran to become a nuclear power. With this in mind, the
American-Iranian nexus is the most dangerous challenge for Israel’s
national security in the near future.
This article was originally published in The International Relations and Security Network, ETH Zurich on April 13, 2015.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.
Prof. Efraim Inbar, a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, serves as the director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies and a Shillman/Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Source: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/the-middle-east-turmoil-and-israels-security/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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