by Gregg Roman
A new Middle East Forum study by Dr. Pnina Shuker challenges prevailing notions about Israeli society's sensitivity to military casualties and its influence on IDF strategy.
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In the annals of Israeli military history, a persistent myth has long influenced strategic thinking: the notion that the Israeli public is hypersensitive to military casualties. This misconception, deeply ingrained in the psyche of Israel's political and military leadership, has often led to overly cautious military strategies, potentially prolonging conflicts and, paradoxically, increasing the overall human cost. However, a new Middle East Forum paper by Dr. Pnina Shuker challenges this long-held assumption, offering a perspective that demands policymakers' attention.
Dr. Shuker's research, titled "The Perception of Israeli Society as Sensitive to Casualties and Its Impact on the IDF's Ability to Win," examines the Israeli public's attitudes towards military casualties across various conflicts. Her findings are both illuminating and strategically significant. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom among Israel's decision-makers, the Israeli public has consistently demonstrated resilience and willingness to endure losses when they perceive the cause as just and necessary for national security.
This misperception of public sentiment has had far-reaching consequences on Israel's military doctrine. It has led to an over-reliance on air power and standoff weapons, often at the expense of decisive ground maneuvers. The result has been a series of inconclusive conflicts, particularly evident in the Lebanon War of 2006 and successive operations in Gaza. These engagements, while initially supported by the public, ultimately led to frustration due to their indecisive outcomes rather than the number of casualties incurred.
Dr. Shuker's analysis reveals a crucial insight: Israeli public support for military operations is more closely tied to perceived achievements than to casualty figures. When the public sees tangible progress toward stated objectives, their resolve remains steadfast. It is the lack of visible achievements, rather than the human cost itself, that erodes public support over time.
The events of October 7, 2023, serve as a stark inflection point in this narrative. The Hamas attack has galvanized Israeli public opinion, generating widespread support for a more assertive military approach. This shift challenges long-held assumptions about Israeli society's tolerance for conflict-related losses and demands a reevaluation of Israel's strategic posture.
Dr. Shuker's research is profound and timely. Israel's political and military leadership must recalibrate their understanding of public sentiment. The Israeli populace has repeatedly demonstrated its readiness to bear the burdens of conflict when the existential nature of the threat is clear. This resilience provides Israel with strategic flexibility that has been underutilized because of misplaced concerns about public backlash.
However, this is not a call for reckless action. Rather, it is an appeal for a more balanced approach that weighs the necessity of decisive military action against the genuine, but often overestimated, concern for casualties. The public's willingness to accept losses must be met with clear, achievable objectives and transparent communication about the progress of military operations.
Dr. Shuker's work provides a crucial corrective to a long-standing misconception in Israeli strategic thinking. As Israel continues to face existential threats in a volatile region, it is imperative that its leaders accurately gauge the resolve of their citizenry. The myth of hypersensitivity to casualties must be discarded in favor of a more nuanced understanding of public sentiment. Only then can Israel fully leverage the strategic depth provided by its resilient and determined populace.
The lessons drawn from this research should not only inform Israel's immediate approach to the ongoing conflict in Gaza but also shape its long-term strategic doctrine. In doing so, Israel can more effectively balance the imperative of protecting its soldiers with the necessity of achieving decisive outcomes in future conflicts. The strength of Israeli society lies not in avoiding all risks, but in its unwavering commitment to national survival in the face of ongoing threats.
Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum.
Source: https://www.meforum.org/66022/reassessing-israeli-resolve-during-times-of-war
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