by Steven Richards
Without "Blood and Treasure": Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined the administration’s plan in the clearest terms yet on Wednesday, in his first public testimony addressing the situation in Venezuela.
Intent on learning important lessons from America’s long and costly regime change efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Trump administration is planning a slower, more methodical change in Venezuela, one that will not require U.S. troops or money.
The Trump administration’s seeming ebrace of Interim President Delcy Rodriguez — a close associate of former dictator Nicolás Maduro — in lieu of U.S.-aligned opposition leaders has elicited criticism from Democrats in Congress. In their eyes, dealing with Rodriguez and Maduro’s other associates is dangerous and opens the door for official corruption in Venezuela to continue, at the expense of American interests and dollars.
Further doubts were reportedly raised by the U.S. intelligence community about whether Rodriguez would cooperate with the United States in its demands for Venezuela to cut formal ties with China, Russia, and Iran, Reuters reported.
Transition to free and fair elections, but economy comes first
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Wednesday, sought to reassure senators about the administration’s long-term plan for Venezuela, which will include an eventual transition to free and fair elections, but which must first focus on stabilizing the country’s mismanaged economy and, principally, its oil industry.
Rubio’s testimony marked the first time the administration’s Venezuelan plan was briefed to senators in public, after prior closed-door and classified briefings earlier this year. “The end state here is we want to reach a phase of transition where we are left with a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela–and democratic in which all elements of society are represented in free and fair elections,” Rubio told the panel of senators. “We're not going to get there in three weeks. It's going to take some time.”
The secretary said the first concern of the Trump administration in the aftermath of the capture of Maduro on narcotrafficking charges was stability.
Rubio said the administration had to consider several contingencies: “What happens in Venezuela? Is there a civil war? Do the different factions start going at each other? Are a million people crossing the border into Colombia?”
He said avoiding those outcomes required cooperating directly with Maduro’s officials, including Rodriguez. “All of that has been avoided, and one of the primary ways that it has been avoided is the ability to establish direct, honest, respectful, but very direct and honest conversations with the people who today control the elements of that nation,” said Rubio.
A significant part of those “honest conversations” are taking place directly with Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, a top deputy to Maduro before his capture earlier this year. Rodriguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president, was selected by her colleagues to carry out the role he vacated.
“Enough already of Washington’s orders over politicians in Venezuela"
So far, she has been cooperative with the United States, ordering the release of certain political prisoners as well as cooperating on the sale of sanctioned oil. However, there are signs that Rodriguez and the Maduro-aligned establishment are chafing under U.S. pressure.
Rodriguez said as much on Sunday in a speech to oil workers in Puerto La Cruz. “Enough already of Washington’s orders over politicians in Venezuela,” she said at the event, which was broadcast on state television.
“Let Venezuelan politics resolve our differences and our internal conflicts. This Republic has paid a very high price for having to confront the consequences of fascism and extremism in our country,” she added.
Rubio dismissed Rodriguez’s comments as part of Venezuela’s internal politics, and not an indication of whether the regime would continue to cooperate. “Suffice it to say what I've said from the very beginning, and that is, we are going to judge based on actions, not words,” he said.
In terms of action, Rubio told the senators that Rodriguez’s administration has made good progress toward reforming the oil and gas sector to open up the country to future outside investment, a key goal of the United States’ transition policy that the U.S. hopes will stabilize the country and its economy.
Last week, Rodriguez proposed a reform that would open up Venezuelan oil fields for foreign companies to cooperate with the state-backed oil giant, PDVSA. The law would also allow those foreign companies greater autonomy in selling the outputs.
“It doesn't go far enough. It probably needs to do more, but that's extraordinary,” Rubio said of the easing of oil industry restrictions. “That never would have happened two or three weeks ago. It certainly wouldn't have happened if Maduro was still there.”
For the United States, helping the country restart its oil industry is the key to stabilizing both the country’s politics and its economy. Only then, Rubio said, will a full transition that includes elections be possible.
Planned arrangement allows Venezuela to utilize its oil revenue
The administration plans to set up an arrangement with Venezuelan authorities that allows them to sell oil at market price abroad. The proceeds will then be deposited in a U.S.-based account at the Treasury Department. The Venezuelan authorities can then withdraw funds with approval from the U.S. government. This arrangement allows Venezuela to utilize its oil revenue, which ordinarily is subject to U.S. sanctions, for projects that benefit the Venezuelan people, Rubio said.
“This is not going to be the permanent mechanism, but this is a short-term mechanism in which the needs of the Venezuelan people can be met through a process that we've created,” Rubio explained.
A second prong of the administration’s strategy will be restaffing the U.S. embassy in Caracas to more closely communicate with both the Rodriguez government and local civil society. Rubio said he hopes the U.S. will be able to help build up “different voices” in Venezuelan politics so that future elections are possible.
It is for this reason that the U.S. has pushed for the regime to release political prisoners, which Trump called a “powerful humanitarian gesture.”
The embassy will also be responsible for keeping a closer eye on the behavior of Rodriguez and other government officials, to ensure they are following the U.S. directives.
U.S. military action not off the table
Ultimately, Rubio reiterated that if Rodriguez does not cooperate with the United States, President Trump has not ruled out further military force to “ensure maximum cooperation” from the Venezuelan authorities.
The Secretary of State believes reaching the end point of new elections “won’t be easy,” but the administration is pleased with the progress so far, which he said would have been unimaginable under Maduro.
“Suffice it to say, I'm not here to claim to you this is going to be easy or simple. I am saying that in three and a half, almost four weeks, we are much further along on this project than we thought we would be, given the complexities of going into it, and I recognize that it won't be easy,” said Rubio.
“I think we're making good and decent progress. It is the best plan, and we are certainly better off today in Venezuela than we were four weeks ago. And I think and hope and expect that we'll be better off in three months, in six months and nine months, than we would have been had Maduro still been there,” he added.
Steven Richards
Source: https://justthenews.com/world/latin-america/trump-admin-pursue-measured-transition-venezuela-focused-stability-economic
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