by Yoav Limor
On the surface, this mutual restraint testifies to a lack of interest for both sides to expand the scope of hostilities. Beneath the surface, however, the situation is far more combustible.
The current escalation
in Gaza was written on the wall, as the cliche says. The IDF prepared
for it, Hamas prepared for it, both without either side truly wanting
it. How and to what degree it develops is now dependent on a number of
factors, which will determine whether we find ourselves mired in the
next version of Operation Protective Edge.
The events of the past
24 hours are particularly noteworthy because of the relative calm of the
past two years. Fewer than 40 rockets have been fired at Israel since
Protective Edge, and the number of Israeli casualties has been the
lowest it has ever been. Gaza border area residents also enjoyed
tranquility during this period: The border area communities absorbed
dozens of new families, farmers worked every last inch of their fields,
and tourists filled the bread and breakfast lodges.
Below the surface of
this idyllic situation, however, Hamas was busy digging its tunnels. The
terrorist group's insights from Protective Edge were clear: While Hamas
failed on land and in the air, Israel did not have an answer to the
challenge Hamas posed underground. The tunnel project was given ultimate
priority; the number of diggers was significantly increased, along with
the budget. The goal: to finish digging dozens of attack tunnels
stretching into Israeli territory, and hundreds off additional defensive
tunnels inside Gaza to hide in during the fighting.
This concerted effort
did not go unnoticed by Israel, which treated the tunnels as the primary
threat facing the country this year. The intelligence gathering
campaign (spearheaded by Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet security
agency) was put into high gear, as was the push to develop the proper
technology. This was clearly a race against time: Detect the tunnels
before Hamas put them to use.
Last month, the first
tunnel was discovered crossing into Israel from southern Gaza. Hamas,
for its own reasons, chose not to fight for it. As a result of this
discovery, efforts to find more were intensified even further. We can
assume this provided the pretext for the exchange of fire over the past
day: The IDF is digging to locate more tunnels, Hamas is shooting to
disrupt these efforts and to warn Israel.
For now, this skirmish
is confined to a very limited "field of play." Hamas is shooting only at
military targets, as it says the IDF is crossing the security fence and
entering Gaza. Israel, in turn, is limiting its response to hitting
Hamas military targets while ensuring that the number of casualties
remains small to nonexistent, to minimize the possibility of a
tit-for-tat escalation.
On the surface, this
mutual restraint testifies to a lack of interest for both sides to
expand the scope of hostilities. Beneath the surface, however, the
situation is far more combustible. The situation in Gaza now is worse
than it was before Hamas decided to go to war two years ago:
Unemployment has risen while gross domestic product has dropped; tens of
thousands of people are still homeless; electricity runs for only eight
hours a day and the water is salty; hundreds of thousands rely on aid
organizations for food and medicine; and worse of all, Gaza is under
siege, people cannot enter or exit, and an Egyptian decision to open the
Rafah crossing does not appear to be on the horizon.
Other factors are also
exacerbating the situation. Arab states, far more occupied with the
Islamic State group and Iran, are ignoring Gaza; hostilities between
Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are ongoing, as is the wave of
terrorism in Judea and Samaria; and extremist elements in Gaza continue
to pose a weakened yet persistent threat to Hamas rule. All these
factors, together with the threat to its tunnel project now posed by
Israel, could lead Hamas to conclude that it has nothing to lose.
This likely won't happen
tomorrow, but let us not be mistaken: We are enmeshed in a negative
dynamic. Suspicions are rising and with them the potential for a harsh
escalation. Considering these conditions, you don't need to be a
weatherman to forecast a very hot summer in the south this year.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=15989
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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