by Prof. Efraim Inbar
The fact that Lebanon is sliding into chaos represents an opportunity to prove to the world that Iran has sunk its claws into the crisis-ridden country.
Hezbollah's rocket fire on northern Israel last week sought to reaffirm its equation of deterrence vis-à-vis Israel, while trying to create a reality in which Israel sustains sporadic rocket fire by Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon as a matter of routine – allowing Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, to maintain deniability and prevent wide-scale escalation in the sector.
This falls in line with the Iranian strategy of surrounding Israel with "a circle of rocket fire."
Hezbollah is armed with over 100,000 missiles and stands at Iran's beck and call. Iran's efforts to ensure the Shiite terrorist group's arsenal remains advanced have been only partially successful but it has maintained Hezbollah's ability to fire salvos at Israel in the even the Jewish state goes after the Islamic republic's nuclear facilities – and there lies the secret to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's perceived restraint since its 2006 war with Israel (albeit the Syrian civil war deflected attention from Lebanon, as well).
One of the issues that must be dealt with before the Iranian nuclear program is removing the threat of Hezbollah missiles.
Unlike the situation in the Gaza Strip meeting the scope of the threat posed by Hezbollah's missile goes beyond a faceoff between Hamas rockets and Israeli defense systems. Common sense dictates that a ground operation will be necessary in Lebanon to minimize the threat to Israel.
Currently, Israel's military action should be geared toward the ultimate strategic objective of thwarting Iran's nuclear plans.
This means that the IDF must prepare for a pre-emptive campaign in the northern sector, mainly to eliminate Hezbollah's threat to Israel's strategic infrastructure.
An incursion into our northern neighbor for the purses of purging it from missiles requires meticulous planning. IDF maneuvers in the north and its exercises in the mountains of Cyprus indicate that there are military preparations for a conflict scenario in Lebanon.
One can only hope that the IDF, under Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, has learned how to strive for victory and is pursuing the necessary action to implement its new battle doctrine. Part of the budget earmarked from defense spending should also be dedicated to missions in Lebanon and protecting the northern home front.
Israel, no stranger to proactive military campaigns (1956, 1967, 1982), knows that every war requires domestic and international legitimation.
Israel must create a favorable atmosphere for proactive action in Lebanon, and as soon as possible. The fact that Lebanon is sliding into chaos and the missile attacks from its territory present that opportunity.
Lebanon and Hezbollah must be closely linked in the international and Israeli public perception of Iranian aggression. The difficulties that Iran is mounting in the nuclear talks may allow Israel more freedom of action.
The moderate Arab states, especially in the Gulf, are examining Israeli behavior. In the absence of determined and effective activity, our allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Iran.
The time when Israel will have to decide whether to act alone is approaching. The road to Natanz and Fordo probably runs through Beirut.
Prof. Efraim Inbar
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-road-to-natanz-runs-through-beirut/
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