Sunday, February 19, 2023

Airstrikes in Syria could lead to escalation by pro-Iran axis - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

This incident was different and indicates the Syrian regime wants to spotlight the attack. This may be linked to other issues.

 

 A view shows damage at the site of a rocket attack, in central Damascus's Kafr Sousa neighborhood, Syria, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters on February 19, 2023. (photo credit: SANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
A view shows damage at the site of a rocket attack, in central Damascus's Kafr Sousa neighborhood, Syria, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters on February 19, 2023.
(photo credit: SANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

The pro-Iran axis in the Middle East – consisting of groups sympathetic to Iran and its proxies or directly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – slammed Israel for airstrikes in Syria early on Sunday. 

Hamas, for example, said it “strongly condemns the Israeli occupation’s aggression against the Syrian Arab Republic and the targeting of civilian populations in the Syrian capital of Damascus, leaving many killed and injured.”

Fars News in Iran, which is close to the IRGC, wrote, “As Zionist fighters attacked a radar site in the north of As-Suwayda Province, a residential building in the south of Damascus was also targeted, as a result of which several people were martyred and injured.”

Al-Mayadeen media also reported on the attacks in detail, saying Syrian air defenses responded to "Israeli aggression,” and further noting that its Damascus correspondent “reported hearing explosions in the sky of the Syrian capital.... ‘The Israeli attack targeted the Kafr Souseh area in Damascus and the Tal al-Masih area near the city of Shahba, north of As-Suwayda.’”

The report also claimed that five people were killed, and that “a Syrian military source said that at exactly 00:12 a.m. today [Sunday], the Israeli enemy carried out an air attack with bursts of missiles from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting points in Damascus and its surroundings, including residential neighborhoods inhabited by civilians.” The report called the Syrians who were killed “martyrs.”

 Police officers stand on the rubble of a damaged building at the site of a rocket attack, in central Damascus' Kafr Sousa neighborhood, Syria, February 19, 2023.  (credit: FIRAS MAKDESI/REUTERS) Police officers stand on the rubble of a damaged building at the site of a rocket attack, in central Damascus' Kafr Sousa neighborhood, Syria, February 19, 2023. (credit: FIRAS MAKDESI/REUTERS)

Meanwhile, reports of rockets fired by pro-Iran proxies targeting US troops near Conoco in eastern Syria circulated as well. Conoco and the Omar field area were last targeted on Tuesday, and two weeks ago, Iran allegedly attacked a commercial vessel off the coast of Oman.

What does this indicate?

Sunday’s airstrikes in Syria were unusual in that there was a significant number of casualties, something that doesn’t usually happen in this scenario. Syria has, in the past, accused Israel of carrying out attacks, but tends not to elaborate much.

It also doesn’t mobilize its friends in pro-Iranian media or in Hamas to condemn the attacks – something that did happen this time, indicating that the Syrian regime wants to focus on the attack more than usual.

Syria knows that Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Ukraine last week, as it is working on rekindling its ties with the Gulf. Additionally, the deadly earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria put Damascus in a different kind of spotlight.

It also comes as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited China last week. Russia is facing pressure from the US over claims of crimes against humanity amid its invasion of Ukraine. While Israel has consistently said that it wants to prevent Iranian entrenchment and movement of weapons through Syria, the Syrian regime might also consider that its support from Iran and Russia will shift the balance of these strikes.

According to a report in the Saudi Arabian Arab News on Thursday, “Tehran has identified a significant number of Diaspora Jews worldwide to assassinate in the event of a war with Israel, a French journalist specializing in Iranian affairs has warned.” It is unclear how legitimate this threat is, but it comes amid assertions by Israel, reported in Saudi Arabia’s Elaph newspaper two weeks ago, that Israel would strike weapons sent by Iran to Syria.

Syria might want to secure Russia’s backing now, and it would use Cohen’s visit to Ukraine as leverage. This also wouldn’t be the first time it did this. In November 2019, Russia revealed that Israel was carrying out airstrikes in Syria.  


Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-732044

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