by Seth J. Frantzman
The blockade was set to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, which is in the afternoon in Iran. Whether this marks a bold new strategy or a sign the US is grasping at straws remains to be seen.
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US President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, stopping ships from “entering or exiting Iranian ports.”
This appeared slightly different than the vow Trump made to blockade all ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as it also means that this would apply to other Iranian ports such as Jask or Chabahar, both of which are outside the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.
The blockade was supposed to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time; 5:30 p.m. in Iran.
Is the blockade a brilliant idea, or is the US grasping at straws? The US attempt to tip the tables on Iran by blockading the Iranians seeks to call their bluff and beat them at their own game. Will it work?
The goal of the blockade is to prevent Iran from selling oil, Trump indicated in remarks to Fox News.
Countries in the region have been on a roller coaster ride, not knowing what to expect from the US over the last week. The ceasefire was announced last Wednesday, and the Middle East sought to take advantage by resuming canceled flights and activities. The US Navy also sent ships into the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the ceasefire talks in Islamabad appeared to fail to achieve their goal on Sunday. US Vice President JD Vance had been in Pakistan talking with the Iranians on Saturday, but the key demands of the US were not met in the talks.
“I don’t care if they come back or not. If they don’t come back, I'm fine”
This has left many countries wondering what comes next.
The US President has now said that the blockade is what comes next. At Arab News in Saudi Arabia, the headline is that Trump doesn’t care if Iran goes back to negotiations. In the past, the US President has threatened to destroy Iranian civilization and also bomb the country to the Stone Age.
The US and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28 in the midst of previous talks hosted by Oman. “I don’t care if they come back or not. If they don’t come back, I’m fine,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.
Arab News noted that “oil tankers are steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US blockade later on Monday following failed peace talks between the US and Iran over the weekend, shipping data showed.” It said that “President Donald Trump said on Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire.”
US Central Command and its naval component will be tasked with carrying out the blockade.
Meanwhile, the world is left wondering what comes next. CNN notes that “oil prices have again topped $100 a barrel and Asian markets fell as the collapsed talks and imminent blockade threatened to further disrupt the global economy.”
The US is also in a new clash with the Papacy. Trump has slammed Pope Leo XIV.
The Pope has been outspoken against war. This is a traditional papal stance. However, the US appears angry that the Pope, who is American, would speak up against war. The US has also lashed out at NATO allies and other countries in recent weeks, while China is watching to see what comes next.
US Central Command says that “forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
The US approach to this blockade is interesting historically, as the US has supported freedom of navigation of the world’s seas, and now the US is carrying out a blockade. A blockade is usually considered an act of war, and the US has not declared war on Iran.
There are some exceptions to blockades as an act of war. The US under John F. Kennedy sought to ‘quarantine’ Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. This almost led to a clash with the Soviet Navy and a nuclear conflict.
There have been many blockades in history. The US sought to blockade the Confederacy during the US Civil War. Initially part of Winfield Scott’s Anaconda Plan for defeating the rebels, the blockade became a key part of the US strategy.
The Germans sought to blockade England during the Second World War, using submarines, or what they called U-Boats. During the Napoleonic Wars, Napoleon attempted a kind of reverse blockade of England as well. During the sieges of Montevideo in Uruguay in the 19th century, naval blockades met with intermittent success.
The US attempt to tip the tables on Iran by blockading the Iranians seeks to call their bluff and meet them at their own game. This means that the Iranians had tried to cut off ships from leaving or entering the Strait of Hormuz.
The US has now said it will then blockade the blockaders. There are challenges. The Iranians have oil floating in tankers off the coast. This is estimated at 23 million barrels of crude oil by TankerTrackers.com, Inc. This poses a lot of questions. Many have also wondered about Chinese ships entering Iranian ports. Trump’s 3D chess has many moving pieces.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892830
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