by Uzi Dayan
What is the meaning of
the chaos unfolding in Iraq? Two day after Mosul was overrun by the
Salafi terror group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Tikrit --
the birthplace of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and of the
legendary Saladin -- fell as well. Sunnis are now in control of areas
stretching from the Iraqi capital of Baghdad to the Syrian city of
Aleppo; and as the Iraqi military's response falters, Kurdish forces
have taken over Kirkuk.
Washington has pledged
its assistance, Turkey has called for an emergency NATO session, and
according to media reports, Iran has dispatched a Revolutionary Guards
force to aid the struggling Iraqi regime. The Middle East, it seems, has
once again plunged into turmoil.
This kind of regional
uncertainty usually calls for exercising two rules: the first, be
prepared to counter the enemy's capabilities, not his intentions; and
the second, vigilantly protect your strategic assets, especially your
defensible borders.
Defensible borders must
afford Israel basic strategic depth and protection against the threat
of conventional warfare, as well as the ability to fight terror.
In the southern sector,
largely thanks to the demilitarization of Sinai, and in the northern
sector, thanks to Israel's adamant refusal to cede the Golan Heights,
Israel has defensible borders. The eastern sector however, only has one
border that meets Israel's security needs -- the one stretching across
the Jordan Rift Valley.
The distance between
the Jordan Rift Valley and the Mediterranean Sea is 64 kilometers (40
miles), making for only minimal strategic depth. The valley, between the
Jordan River and the hills overlooking it from the west, constitutes an
irreplaceable defense theater against a potential eastern front. Only
the valley can serve as a protective buffer against a potential
terrorist entity in Judea and Samaria.
An outlook for the
immediate future projects several potential scenarios: jihadist
terrorism will stretch beyond Syria; Hamas is eyeing a takeover of the
Palestinian Authority; Iraq's disintegration will continue and it will
be split between Sunni groups; the Kurds may declare independence (which
is good for Israel), and the Shiites will join forces with Iran which,
for its part, will continue to make a mockery of the West as it bolsters
its nuclear arsenal.
Facing these realities,
can those who claim that "topography and territorial control are
virtually meaningless in a modern, technological world," that "there is
no 'eastern front' and there never will be," and that "only peace will
bring security," be certain that taking an uncalculated risk and ceding,
even if partially, security control over the Jordan Rift Valley, is
such a good idea?
The situation in Iraq
is difficult and confusing but one thing is certain -- only full Israeli
control over the entire Jordan Rift Valley, as a security zone running
along the Jordanian border, will afford Israel true security.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan is a former IDF deputy chief of staff and former head of the National Security Council.
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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