by Elliot Abrams
Israelis know that developments in Sinai will present threats to Israel sooner rather than later. One must hope that in addition to protecting their border, the Israelis are giving the Egyptians some advice on counterterror strategies.
The recent terrorist attacks in Sinai reveal several significant and dangerous developments.
Last week brought the
murder in Cairo of Egypt's top prosecutor, but in Sinai the news was
even worse: well-coordinated terrorist attacks that displayed new
capabilities.
"Just two days after
militants assassinated Egypt's top prosecutor on a Cairo street, the
military on Wednesday called in F-16 war planes and helicopters to beat
back a coordinated assault in Northern Sinai by a jihadist group
affiliated with the Islamic State. Egyptian soldiers were killed,
police officers were trapped in their posts, ambulances were paralyzed
by booby-trapped roads and residents were warned to stay indoors by
jihadists roaming on motorcycles."
Israeli analysts noted
three things. First, despite the much larger Egyptian military activity
in Sinai, the Egyptian Army has been incapable of crushing the
terrorists. Under the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, Egypt must limit its
military presence in Eastern Sinai. But Israel has permitted the
Egyptians to forget about those limits entirely. Acting freely, then,
the Egyptians have still not succeeded and the terrorist activities
have grown. The Egyptian Army has given no evidence that it knows how
to combat the terrorists effectively.
Second, the terrorists
are getting better at it. Last year they appeared as a ragtag bunch
holding Kalashnikovs ("armed Bedouins," one Israeli journalist said).
Now they have attacked several targets in one day in a well-coordinated
movement, they wear uniforms, and they have more advanced equipment
such as anti-tank missiles. This is the ISIS we have come to know in
Iraq.
Third, there are
connections between the terrorists in Sinai and Hamas in Gaza. There are
accusations that Hamas has done some training of these jihadis in
Sinai, has provided them with funds, and has given medical treatment to
wounded jihadis in Gaza hospitals.
Israelis know that
developments in Sinai will present threats to Israel sooner rather than
later. One must hope that in addition to protecting their border, the
Israelis are giving the Egyptians some advice on counterterror
strategies. President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's overall strategy is a
blunt one: repression. It is not going to work -- in Sinai or anywhere
in Egypt. This is partly because the targets of repression are not only
the terrorists but any critics of the government. The government of
Egypt now has about 40,000 political prisoners, and it is crushing all
political activity -- moderate, secular, liberal, democratic as well as
extremist. That's a formula for instability in the medium and perhaps
even short term. Moreover, it is not going to work because the army and
police don't seem very effective in their counterterror actions and
strategies.
So, look for worse
trouble in Sinai, and in all of Egypt. Of course, an unstable Egypt and a
terrorist war in Sinai are very alarming news for Israel. In three
visits to Israel this year, I have found virtually all Israeli
officials in love with El-Sissi. I can see why: He threw Muslim
Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi out, he is opposing Hamas and the
Brotherhood, and he is fighting terror in Sinai. Israelis should step
back and ask themselves whether the method El-Sissi is using -- blunt
repression -- will work in post-Tahrir Egypt. And if not, where is
Egypt headed? Judging by the last week, it is headed for more violence
and instability.
Elliott Abrams is a
senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign
Relations.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13069
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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