by Burak Bekdil
- AKP supporters celebrated their victory on November 1 with chants of "Allahu Akbar" ["Allah is the greatest"], an Islamist slogan, indicating that for them the political race in Turkey is in fact a "religious war."
- The Turkish "Sultan wannabe" runs an empire of fear. The November 1 vote will only help make him even more despotic.
- A recent study found that only a quarter of Turks were NOT afraid of Erdogan. According to the research, even some of his own supporters are afraid of him.
- "The rapidly diminishing choice of media outlets and restrictions on freedom of expression in general impacted the process and remain serious concerns." -- Ignacio Sanchez Amor, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
- The AKP's setback in last June's elections was because some nationalists disapproved of the AKP's peace process with the Kurdish minority. In July, the government scrapped the peace process and ordered the military relentlessly to bomb the strongholds of militant Kurds in northern Iraq.
Once again, after a brief pause, political Islam has won in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), earned nearly one out of every two votes in the renewed parliamentary elections on November 1. The AKP won more than 4.8 million new votes since the June 7 elections, in which it had lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power in 2002. The November 1 election gave the AKP a mandate to rule until 2019; by then Turkey's Islamists will have been in power uninterruptedly for 17 years. There are happy smiles on the faces of half the Turks.
The AKP's unexpected landslide victory can be explained in numbers. The party won by 9 percentage points more on Nov. 1 than on June 7, just five months before. How did this happen?
- The nationalist party, MHP, shares more or less the same
voter base with the AKP. Votes often go from one to the other. In the
June election, some AKP votes shifted to the MHP, which won 16.3% of the
national vote. This was because some nationalists disapproved of the
AKP's peace process with the country's restive Kurdish minority. After a
new spiral of violence started in July, the government scrapped the
peace process and ordered the military relentlessly to bomb the
strongholds of militant Kurds in northern Iraq. With the AKP boasting
its newfound nationalist spirit, the MHP lost 4.1 percentage points on
Nov. 1, all of which apparently went to the AKP.
- The summer-long violence between the autonomy-seeking Kurdish
fighters and the Turkish military, which has killed hundreds, apparently
wore down Kurds with more loyalist sentiments to Turkey, and caused a
shift of votes at the magnitude of 1.4 percentage points from a
pro-Kurdish party to the AKP.
- Two splinter Islamist and nationalist parties that won 2% of the
vote on June 1 disappeared from the political scene, winning just a
combined 0.5% on November 1. From them the AKP earned another 1.5
- In the face of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's lavish, expensive
palace, new private jets, extravagant spending of public funds; his
assertive intervention in party politics (he must remain non-partisan,
according to the Turkish constitution), and growing allegations of
corruption and nepotism, some traditionally AKP voters abstained from
voting on June 7. Typically, half of those who abstained in June were
AKP voters. Apparently, they returned to the ballot box in November,
earning the AKP another good 2 percentage points (the turnout rate was
nearly 4 percentage points higher in November than in June).
True, even if there is not yet credible evidence of vote-rigging, the election campaign was totally unfair to the opposition. Erdogan and the AKP massively used a powerful pro-government media machine, including the state broadcaster and a semi-official news agency.
"While Turkish citizens could choose between genuine and strong political alternatives in this highly polarized election, the rapidly diminishing choice of media outlets and restrictions on freedom of expression in general impacted the process and remain serious concerns," said Ignacio Sanchez Amor, the special coordinator and leader of the short-term observer mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
The head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Andreas Gross, said: "Unfortunately, the campaign for these elections was characterized by unfairness and, to a serious degree, fear."
In fact, one could easily understand how democratic and fair the Turkish election campaign was from the words of Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas's political bureau. He called both Erdogan and his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, to convey the Palestinian group's congratulations on Turkey's "democratic electoral environment."
Turkish President (then Prime Minister) Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, meeting with Hamas leaders Khaled Mashaal (center) and Ismail Haniyeh on June 18, 2013, in Ankara, Turkey. Mashaal, last week called Erdogan to convey Hamas's congratulations on Turkey's "democratic electoral environment." (Image source: Turkey Prime Minister's Press Office)
In a way, this is Turkey's Stockholm Syndrome. A recent study found that only a quarter of Turks were NOT afraid of President Erdogan. As many as 68.5% said they were afraid of the president. It is interesting to note that according to the findings of this research, even some of his own supporters are afraid of him: If Erdogan's supporters make up 50% of Turkey and those who say they are afraid of him stand at 68.5%, this means a good 18.5% of his own supporters are also afraid of him.
The Turkish "Sultan wannabe" runs an empire of fear. The November 1 vote will only help make him even more despotic.
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.