by Prof. Eyal Zisser
The challenges facing Turkey, even if Erdogan emerges from the referendum victorious, are many.
This coming Sunday,
Turkish citizens will partake in a national referendum, set in motion by
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, over several constitutional amendments
that would augment his powers as president.
At hand are a series of
technical adjustments, primarily geared toward granting Erdogan the
authority to declare a state of emergency and dissolve the Turkish
parliament, as well as appoint the prime minister and cabinet. These
changes would shift Turkey from a parliamentary system of government,
similar to Israel and Europe, to a presidential system, similar to the
United States, in which the president wields considerable power. We must
keep in mind, however, that Turkey is not the United States and does
not have the same tradition of democracy; nor does it have the same
organized system of checks and balances to limit the president's power.
By all indications,
Erdogan has waited for this moment since first embarking on his
political path. To realize his goal, he has worked to secure a majority
in the Turkish parliament, to approve the proposed amendments before
they are brought to a referendum. As a reminder, Turkey held two
parliamentary elections last year -- in June and November -- because in
the first round in June Erdogan had failed to attain the desired
majority to do his bidding.
The general perception
in the West is that Erdogan aspires to restore Turkey to the glory of
the Ottoman Empire, when it controlled large swathes of the Middle East.
Erdogan's immediate goal, however, is to sever the country from the
legacy of Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, who sought to make
Turkey a secular Western country with incredibly deep ties to Europe.
In retrospect, the
national referendum is a legitimate step in the overall initiative
Erdogan has spearheaded, intended to solidify his power. More blatantly,
however, he has methodically expunged his political enemies and
detractors from the public sphere. To this end, Erdogan exploited the
attempted military coup against him last summer to persecute his
adversaries and critics, sending many of them to prison and dismissing
many others from their posts under suspicion of supporting his
overthrow.
In past election
campaigns, Erdogan has employed anti-Israel rhetoric and used the Jewish
state as a punching bag to scrounge more votes. This time, the
countries are in the midst of normalizing diplomatic relations.
Consequently, Erdogan has chosen to target Europe. The decision by
several European governments to prohibit him and his ministers from
attending rallies in support of the proposed constitutional amendments
-- which the Turkish government had organized across Europe for the
millions of Turkish immigrants living there -- sparked Erdogan's wrath.
The Europeans, unlike Russian President Vladimir Putin, don't hit back
very hard.
Other national
referendums held in Turkey -- insofar as referendums under a battered
and menaced press can be trusted -- have shown an equal balance between
Erdogan's supporters and detractors. It still comes as little surprise,
however, that his most impressive victories have stemmed not just from
the depth of the support for him, but also, mainly, from his weak and
splintered opposition. In a bid to weaken his enemies even further,
Erdogan jailed the leader of the Kurdish PHD party, which did very well
in the most recent elections, accusing him of aiding the underground
Kurdish PKK.
Losing the national
referendum would be a harsh personal blow for Erdogan; some even predict
it would mark the beginning of his political downfall. Erdogan,
however, has already encountered similar setbacks, which never stopped
him from recovering and plowing forward.
With that, the
challenges facing Turkey, even if Erdogan emerges from the referendum
victorious, are many. The economy is sputtering; Kurdish terror, not to
mention Islamic State, has reared its head; while in Syria, Turkey has
been unable to advance its interests against Bashar Assad, Islamic
State, the Iranians and primarily the detested Kurds. The manner in
which Erdogan confronts these challenges will determine his legacy,
especially if he is able to end the Ataturk era and usher in his own.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18819
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