by Daniel Siryoti
The Arab Spring largely passed Jordan by, in part because the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood supported King Abdullah, who now has to juggle the contradictory demands of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Bedouin and the country's Palestinian majority.
King Abdullah II, second from left, reviews an honor guard during a ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of the Great Arab Revolt against the regions ruling Ottoman Turks on January 23, 2016 Photo: Pool / Getty Images
The
events of the Arab Spring, which have kept the Middle East off-kilter
for nearly 10 years now, skipped over the kingdom of Jordan. The
citizens of the Hashemite kingdom, unlike their neighbors in Syria and
Iraq, were not forced to deal with bloody civil wars, unchecked
immigration by Islamist terrorist operatives, and the absence of a
centralized, stable government.
However, Jordan today – more than ever – is
facing a real existential threat to the royal family's continued rule.
This is mainly the result of geopolitical changes in the kingdom and
outside its border, as well as regional processes and demographic
changes in Jordan itself, mostly having to do with the Bedouin tribes
and the Palestinians in Jordan, whom many Jordanians (including the
Bedouin) see as "temporary residents."
Although the Jordanians take every
opportunity to announce that a solution to the Palestinian issue is
their top priority, senior officials admit in the same breath that a
shared border between Jordan and a future Palestinian state – whose
Palestinian side would be manned by members of the Palestinian security
forces – would be the biggest threat to the stability of the kingdom of
Jordan.
In addition to that, as far as the
Jordanians are concerned, recognition of Palestinian sovereignty in east
Jerusalem could lead to a Palestinian demand to improve their political
status on the Temple Mount, where since 1967 the Jordanians have
enjoyed a "special status" granted to them as descendants of the Prophet
Mohammad and guardians of Islamic holy sites.
That concern was expressed in the Jordanian
rejection of a request from former leader of Hamas' politburo, Khaled
Mashaal, to run Hamas' political wing out of an office in Jordan. Senior
Jordanian intelligence officials have even said more than once in close
talks that the close cooperation between Jordan and Israel's defense
and intelligence apparatuses helps them maintain stability in the
kingdom.
Middle East expert Pinhas Inbari, a senior
research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs – who has
spent years studying changes in Jordan – argues that even though the
events of the Arab Spring did not affect Jordan like they did its
neighbors, the kingdom has clearly not avoided the Islamic State gaining
a foothold within its borders. This has happened mostly at the
kingdom's periphery, and when the Islamic caliphate was at its heights,
the Bedouin religious leadership openly declared their loyalty to ISIS
and called for an ouster of the royal family.
There is also the economic and social gaps
between Amman, the capital, and Jordan's periphery towns, as well as
Jordanian officials' frequent criticism of the royal family's wasteful,
showy lifestyle. Inbari emphasizes that the root of the problem lies in
the crumbling Bedouin periphery. In the past, in the time of King
Hussein, the Bedouin tribes were blindly loyal to the Hashemite crown.
Today, that loyalty is seen as a vulnerability.
When it comes to the issue of the
Palestinian majority in Jordan, the royal family has recently started to
become concerned about the Bedouin sector's growing strength, both in
the Jordanian military – of which they form the backbone – and in the
government sector, where the Bedouin fill many senior positions in
administration and public security.
The Bedouin in Jordan see themselves,
justifiably, as the pillar of their nation, whereas the Palestinians are
considered guests. But while most of the Bedouin income comes from
their public service, the Palestinians are mostly concentrated in Amman
and the other large cities and do well in the private sector. The
Bedouin tribes and clans continue to seethe as they watch the
Palestinian "guests" flourishing and accumulating wealth and status.
The religious dimension
The inherent tension between the Bedouin
and the Palestinians in Jordan is made more complicated by the religious
aspect. While the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Jordan is comprised
mainly of Palestinians, the Jordanian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood
(which is in effect the movement that oversees Hamas) is walking a
tightrope and being careful not to put Palestinians in top roles,
preferring religious figures from the Bedouin sector.
According to Inbari, one reason why the
kingdom has managed to remain stable through the events of the Arab
Spring and the Islamic winter that followed is that it enjoyed sweeping,
albeit secret, support from the Muslim Brotherhood. This was the case
even as the Muslim Brotherhood in other Middle East countries, such as
Egypt and Libya, were main factors in toppling the regimes there.
It was actually the heads of Bedouin tribes
in the Jordanian periphery, who identify with the Salafi-Wahabi stream
of Sunni Islam, who were influenced by the spread of the Islamic State
caliphate and lent their hand to spreading a call throughout the
periphery to oust the royal family and replace it with an Islamist
religious regime.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan aligned
itself with King Abdullah and did not allow its members to carry out
terrorist attacks against the kingdom. When Salafist circles began
criticizing the Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood for aligning
itself with the king and his government, senior members of the Muslim
Brotherhood movement in Jordan said that "We have no desire or need to
bring Jordan down to the state of Syria, Libya, or Yemen."
The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan's position
stance alongside the royal family allowed them to express harsh
criticism of the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel, and call for it
to be canceled.
However, even in that case, the Muslim
Brotherhood in Jordan knew where the crown's red line lay and its
criticism was restricted to declarations. At the same time, the king and
his men take part in the anti-Israel rhetoric, mostly when it comes to
the issues of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, out of a desire to calm
any possible escalation at home that could portray the rulers of the
kingdom as cooperating with Israel.
In recent years, more people in Jordan have
been calling to drop any sign of normalization with Israel, and
Abdullah and his people are aware of their people's growing opposition
to closer ties with Israel and that warmer relations with Israel could
be a catalyst that would cause the Jordanian public to boil over at the
royal family. Inbari says that the economic frustration and the good
ties between Abdullah and the Palestinians in both Jordan and the West
Bank these past few years have caused the Bedouin to distance themselves
from the king's government and his officials.
Senior Jordanian intelligence officials
have even told Israel Hayom that even though the calls from some of the
Bedouin tribes against the royal family are not strong enough to
threaten the king's rule, they are still a "worrying development that
could become a threat to the kingdom's stability."
The source of the royal family's legitimacy
Those same intelligence officials also say
that recently, the king has been forced to grapple with new challenges:
the Trump administration's peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians,
and what Amman perceives as "Judaization" of the Temple Mount and a
change to the status quo at the site.
The special status Israel conferred on the
Jordanian kingdom, allowing it to oversee Islamic holy sites on the
Temple Mount, is the main source of the Jordanian royal family's
legitimacy. Any attack to the status quo on the Temple Mount and
Jordan's status there will lead to the king and his family being accused
of having betrayed their roles as guardians of the Islamic holy places
in Jerusalem, and they will lose their legitimacy to rule and could even
lose the kingdom itself.
Various reports claim that U.S. President
Donald Trump's "deal of the century" will probably include the
establishment of a pan-Arab Islamic council, led by Saudi Arabia, to
manage the local waqf – the entity that oversees the Temple Mount. For
the Jordanian royal family, that means it would be booted out of its
exclusive role at the holy site. According to Inbari, "That is the
background [necessary] to understand why Jordan initiated the changes to the makeup of the waqf and the resulting tension around the Gate of Mercy."
Meanwhile, it appears that Jordan is still
walking a narrow line, trying to maintain stability and ensure the
continued existence of the kingdom, which achieved independence from
Britain in 1946.
Daniel Siryoti
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2019/03/13/walking-a-fine-line-between-the-bedouin-and-the-palestinians/
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