Monday, February 7, 2011

Obama's Role in Empowering the Muslim Brotherhood


by Ed Lasky

The Obama administration is claiming that the president has been out in front of the crisis in Egypt. The facts prove otherwise. He has been behind the curve and has badly damaged American interests -- perhaps irretrievably so.

Barack Obama's campaign was built on spin and speeches. His presidency has used these tools to present a false image. In this case, his chief spin maestro, David Axelrod, has been peddling the story that Barack Obama has been "out ahead of this" ("this" being the crisis in Egypt).

Politico Journalist Josh Gerstein was skeptical and fact-checked Axelrod's boastful claim. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has parroted the same story line. Gerstein found it wanting:
To hear soon-to-depart White House senior adviser David Axelrod tell it, President Barack Obama has long taken a tough line with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak over human rights and political reform issues in his country.

"The way [Obama has] confronted it, is he went to Cairo and talked about the need, the universal human rights of people. He's on several occasions directly confronted Pres. Mubarak on it. And pushed him on the need for political reform in his country," Axelrod told ABC's Jake Tapper Friday, on the adviser's last day of work at the White House.

"To get ahead of this?" Tapper asked.

"Exactly. To get ahead of this. This is a project he's been working on for two years, and today the president is working hard to encourage restraint and a cessation of violence against the people of Egypt," said Axelrod.

"Nice myth," said one human rights advocate I asked about Axelrod's description.

There are a couple of problems with Axelrod's account. First, there's little public evidence that Obama "confronted" Mubarak on these issues. White House officials have said the subjects were raised in meetings between the men, but when the two met publicly there was little indication that Obama was pressuring Mubarak on the issue.

During the 25-minute press availability during the pair's Oval Office meeting in August 2009, Obama didn't mention the issue. Mubarak was the one who brought it up, telling the press how "friendly" their exchange on the subject was and suggesting a rather leisurely timeline to make changes.

The other sleight-of-hand in Axelrod's comment is his suggestion that Obama's visit to Cairo in June 2009 was intended or perceived as speaking hard truths to Mubarak. To the contrary, many in the region, in other Muslim countries and the U.S. ( see here and here) saw the choice of Egypt for Obama's first speech to the Muslim world as a huge laurel for Mubarak, not an albatross. Obama's speech made no direct reference to political reform or human rights issues in Egypt, save for a passing reference to Christian Copts there. There were also reports that the U.S. eased up on democracy promotion there.

However confrontational the Obama administration's approach to this issue may have been over the past two years, I certainly don't remember Obama administration officials ever publicly suggesting, as White House press secretary Robert Gibbs did directly on Friday, that U.S. aid to Egypt was in jeopardy.

He was not ahead of the curve but, in an all-too-rare instance of budget-cutting, slashed aid to groups that might have been key players (and allies of the United States) when a new government is established.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Barack Obama had not just ignored Egyptian human rights issues over the past two years, but actually cut funding for activist groups trying to reform Egypt:

Although President Obama has sided firmly with pro-democracy protesters in Egypt, his administration spent its first two years easing the U.S. push for human rights reforms in that country.

Early in Obama's presidency, officials cut in half funding to promote democracy in Egypt. They also agreed to restrict certain grants only to organizations licensed by President Hosni Mubarak's authoritarian regime, reversing a Bush administration policy of funding groups at odds with the government.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, at a March 2009 meeting with Mubarak at an Egyptian resort on the Red Sea, seemed to downplay a State Department report documenting torture, rape and political detentions in Egypt.

"We issue these reports on every country," Clinton told a television interviewer. "And so we hope that it will be taken in the spirit in which it is offered, that we all have room for improvement."

Egyptian dissidents were distressed by the administration's message.

"All this sent a signal that was very damaging," said Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington advocacy group.

Indeed, the reviled Bush administration was the administration that was ahead of the curve -- though its ardor for change cooled as time went on. But Obama regressed even further on the issue of reform and human rights.

Obama spoke in general terms about political rights in his seminal address to the Muslim world in Cairo in 2009, but did not explicitly demand reform in Egypt, as former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did in 2005. Rice's remarks reflected then-President George W. Bush's "freedom agenda" for the Middle East, which involved stepped-up pressure for democratic reforms.

The Bush administration pressured Mubarak into holding elections in 2005 that though flawed, were the fairest in the country's history, analysts say. But harsh interrogations of terrorism suspects, secret CIA prisons and the Iraq war tainted the Bush approach. And after Palestinian elections in 2006 that brought Hamas to power in Gaza, Bush's ardor for Arab democracy cooled.

Obama pulled back further.

Not only has Barack Obama been behind the curve, but he worsened the dynamic by slashing funding in half for groups that could have been our allies for true Democratic change. Why the budget-cutting? Obama did the same for a Boston-based Iran human rights group that had been monitoring and publicizing and recording for posterity Iranian human rights abuses -- except in that case, Obama terminated all funding. The man who has rung up trillion-dollar deficits tries to save a few million dollars by cuts to human rights groups?

Now, because of his multiple failures, Obama is playing catch-up. Obama is way behind the curve. How has he been playing his own badly self-dealt hand? By chumming up with one of the most radical groups of all, the radically anti-American, anti-Israel, anti-Christian, and anti-Semitic Muslim Brotherhood. His administration, while slashing aid to Egyptian human rights groups, actually courted the Muslim Brotherhood and invited members to attend his Cairo Speech. The engagement (and empowerment) has continued apace.

Robert Gibbs stated that the Obama administration was urging the inclusion of "important non-secular actors" in whatever government takes over from the Mubarak regime. This was widely interpreted to mean the Muslim Brotherhood (this group is by far the most influential and important "non-secular" actor in Egypt). Furthermore, the Obama team's proposal for the immediate transfer of power calls for the transitional government to include the Muslim Brotherhood, the New York Times reported on Friday.

David Horovitz of the Jerusalem Post notes that Barack Obama never delivered significant pressure on Mubarak to reform, and this apathy was starkly confirmed by December's massive fraudulent parliamentary elections. Horovitz writes:

Washington evidently failed to foresee that embittered Egyptians might then resort to the massed protests of the past two weeks, and it abandoned Mubarak with alacrity as it scrambled to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a largely spontaneous people's push for freedom and democracy.

But however one gauges the realpolitik involved in that dramatic recoil from a 30-year ally, the White House's subsequent reported moves to legitimate Egypt's Islamists -- whose outlook conflicts utterly with the democratic agenda -- make no sense, and suggest a frighteningly superficial understanding of the Muslim Brotherhood's intentions and potential achievements.

Far from learning the lessons of the Islamists' skilled subversion of other pro-democracy movements, working with potential leaders of an Egyptian transition to minimize the risk of such a process recurring, and making publicly plain that there will be no ongoing American alliance with an Egypt in which an unreformed Islamist movement has even a marginal role in government, the White House seems to be actively encouraging a transitional outreach to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Horovitz further outlines the history of Middle East regimes that incorporate groups similar to the Muslim Brotherhood. They burrow into governments and then take over, all but destroying the Democratic process that brought them to power -- often at the behest of Western powers. They become anti-American and become terror-supporting states. They fall out of the so-called American orbit -- perhaps for many years to come (as has Iran). They trample the rights of women, abuse their children by teaching the tools of Islamism and not the tools needed to live in the 21st century, and use their mosques and media to brainwash their people to hate America. They give rise to more terrorism that can wash up on our own shores.

Now history seems to be repeating itself as tragedy.

Abe Greenwald at Commentary Contentions notes that the Obama administration seems to be countenancing and endorsing a role for the Muslim Brotherhood in the new Egyptian regime:
Things could be taking a dangerous turn in Egypt. The Washington Post reports that the Muslim Brotherhood has new interest in participating in talks on the transition of leadership. "The Brotherhood had refused to join talks Saturday, insisting that Mubarak leave first. But leaders of the movement changed their minds Sunday, saying they wanted to play a role in shaping a transition of power and organizing free elections."

The American response has been less than inspiring. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told National Public Radio: "Today we learned the Muslim Brotherhood decided to participate, which suggests they at least are now involved in the dialogue that we have encouraged." Yes, participation does suggest involvement, doesn't it? "We're going to wait and see how this develops," she said, "but we've been very clear about what we expect."

The only party that has actually been clear about what it expects is the Muslim Brotherhood - and it expects to rule.
Barack Obama failed to capitalize on his initial worldwide popularity to push for democratic reforms in the Muslim world. He could have funded, supported, and promoted a wide range of true human rights groups that could have brought about a stable Egypt that would uphold its treaties and still be a reliable ally of America. Instead, he slashed funding for these groups, gave them zero moral or diplomatic support, and is now -- with alacrity (as Horvitz notes) -- abandoning Mubarak and empowering the Muslim Brotherhood.

So has Barack Obama been ahead of the curve? Only if you think he wanted the Muslim Brotherhood to assume power.

Original URL: http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/obamas_role_in_empowering_the.html

Ed Lasky is news editor of American Thinker.

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Iran’s Deadly Intimidation


by Frank Crimi

As political unrest continues to spread throughout the Middle East, two of Iran’s top opposition leaders have accused the Islamist regime of rapidly increasing the number of executions in a deliberate effort to intimidate the country’s reform movement.

Specifically, the increase in executions is seen as a direct attempt by the Iranian government to stifle opposition by those who feel empowered by the ongoing upheaval in Egypt and Tunisia.

The accusations were levied by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, both former Iranian presidential candidates. In a statement released on Iran’s reformist website Tagheer, the men wrote that the Iranian government was increasing executions in order to “intimidate the nation and further isolate Iran on the international stage.”

Both men lost the June 2009 presidential election to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a vote fraught with allegations of fraud and vote rigging. The subsequent public outcry spawned a wave of open protests against the Islamist regime, dubbed the Green Movement.

Mousavi and Karrubi’s charges come at the same time the United Nations released a report also condemning the Iranian regime’s record number of executions. The report cited the Iranian government’s execution of 67 people in January 2011, putting it on pace to quickly eclipse the 179 executions that took place in 2010.

However, since the Iranian government does not release information on the number of death sentences carried out, the UN figures were gleaned from Iranian press reports. As such, some have surmised that the number is far too low. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has placed the number of executions in January 2011 at 97. Mousavi and Karrubi have placed the overall number of executions in 2010 at more than 300.

In addition to the high number of executions, the UN and opposition leaders fear that those being killed are not just criminals, but dissidents who have participated in the anti-government protests. According to UN spokesperson, Navi Pillay, “Dissent is not a crime. It is absolutely unacceptable for individuals to be imprisoned for association with opposition groups, let alone be executed for their political views or affiliations.”

Compounding the issue is the belief that those being executed have also not been given fair or complete trials. According to Aaron Rhodes, a spokesperson for International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, “The issue is not whether crimes occur in Iran, but whether death sentences are based on real trials, with real evidence, and real cases presented by lawyers.”

For its part, the Iranian government has been adamant that those arrested and executed were so dealt with due to their criminal activities, mostly connected to charges of drug smuggling. Furthermore, the government claims that every legal option available for those defendants had been exhausted.

Despite those claims, Iran’s actions led Pillay to say, “I am very dismayed that instead of heeding our calls, the Iranian authorities appear to have stepped up the use of the death penalty.” However, for those who have been on the receiving end of Iranian beatings during the Green Movement, the allegations come as little shock.

Those anti-government protests, which had died down by February 2010 after brutal violent crackdowns by Iranian security forces, were followed by purges of opposition supporters in universities, government offices and media outlets. Since early 2010 the regime has prosecuted over 100 dissidents and political figures, placing most of them on televised mass trials.

arrested and sentenced to long prison terms. The most recent convictions were Iranian attorney Khalil Bahramian, who was sentenced to 18 years in prison, and Nasrin Sotoudeh, who was sentenced to 11 years.

Still, some observers suspect that the events in Tunisia and Egypt are linked to the government increase in public executions and persecution. They argue the Iranian regime is encouraged by the prospect of the overthrow of secular, pro-Western governments, and as proof point to the government’s ardent and public championing of the revolts.

These thoughts were best echoed by the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, who told the Fars news agency, “The time has [been] reached to overcome puppet autocratic regimes by relying on the Islamic teachings.” Adding to the chorus was a top Iranian cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, quoted as saying, “An Islamic Middle East is being created based on Islam, religion, and democracy with prevailing religious principles.”

While there is a disturbing irony in the Iranian government backing a process which it crushed back in 2009, it is a fact not lost on Mousavi. On his website, he wrote about the Egyptian government’s confrontations and clashes with protesters: “We can identify a similar pattern.”

For its part, Iran’s government opposition and its leadership have also been vocal cheerleaders for the uprisings, which they claim are a natural extension of their own democratic efforts and call a sign of “Arab maturity.”

To them, the Green Movement was the first democratization movement that helped launch the Tunisian riots and then the subsequent Egyptian uprising. While some may dismiss the fact there is no correlation, arguing that Iran’s anti-government protests were a Persian Shiite movement and not a Sunni Arab one, others disagree.

In fact, Tunisian activists have been open about borrowing tactics used by Iranians in the 2009 Green Movement in their battle against the regime of Zine El Abdine Ben Ali. Specifically, they cite using social technologies, like Facebook and Twitter, as a means of organizing.

So now, as autocratic regimes peppered throughout the region begin to crumble, Iranian opposition leaders pine to complete the job they started. As Mousavi has confidently said, “No power can outrun the people’s will and demands. We believe that if election protesters are allowed to rally in Iran, people will express themselves.”

Despite its public bravado, Iran’s Islamist leaders are fearful what form that expression will take. While they may hope that Iran remains immune to the forces of change currently sweeping the region, they are busily hedging their bets. As Iranians are coming to learn, an overworked hangman is a good indicator of those efforts.

Frank Crimi is a writer living in San Diego, California. You can read more of Frank’s work at his blog, www.politicallyunbalanced.com.

Original URL: http://frontpagemag.com/2011/02/07/irans-deadly-intimidation/

Frank Crimi

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Anatomy of a Revolution


by Nichole Hungerford

As the chaos in Egypt rages on, even the most ardent pro-democracy spectators are expressing skepticism with regard to the future of the country. Fellow traveler Nicholas Kristof pondered in The New York Times Saturday, “[I]f Egyptian protesters overcome the government, would this be 1979 or 1989?” In other words: are we witnessing the birth pangs of an Iranian-style theocracy or a vibrant free society? “No one can predict with certainty,” Kristof believes. But in fact, there are clear signs of where Egypt is headed, if we only look at the root of the current revolution. This evidence unfortunately shows that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood stands to benefit handsomely from the turmoil. Even in the best case scenario, if the moderate wing assumes the seat of power, we can almost certainly expect the long-standing peace between Egypt and Israel, vital to regional stability, to disintegrate in short order. Perhaps worse.

What exactly do we know about the Egyptian revolution? Broadly speaking, the Egyptian opposition forces, those mobilizing against President Hosni Mubarak, are primarily a coalition of Islamists and socialists, and they have in fact been working together to undermine the Mubarak regime for quite some time. The principal opposition groups behind the uprising are: the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest; Mohamed ElBaradei and the National Association for Change; and the socialist youth movement, the foremost of which is the April 6th Movement.

Serious opposition to the 30-year Mubarak regime began to emerge during the second Palestinian Intifada in Israel’s Gaza Strip. The so-called “cold peace” between Egypt and Israel, which President Mubarak sustained, did not deter Egyptians from demonstrating in solidarity with warring Palestinians, creating a rift between the ostensibly pro-Israel president and the population. This only intensified in the following years with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. Egyptians took to the streets to protest the Iraq war, again putting the people at odds with the American-allied regime.

Between 2003-2005, in pursuit of its “freedom agenda,” the Bush administration began to put pressure on the Mubarak regime to institute democratic reforms, including by allowing multiparty elections. According to a report from the Rand Corporation, what emerged in opposition to Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party was a loose coalition of Egyptian Islamist and socialist groups, who united under the moniker “Kefaya” (“enough” in Arabic). While Kefaya constituencies were diverse, they coalesced around two related objectives: opposition to Israel, and opposition to Mubarak, who had maintained peace with Israel and who was bolstering his own executive authority (through, for instance, authoritarian revisions to the constitution and preparing his son Gamal to inherit the presidency). Kefaya, which eventually developed a strong youth wing, organized for non-NDP candidates in the 2005 election and protested for democratic reforms and against Mubarak and his maneuvers toward hereditary rule.

The results from this democratic movement were far from encouraging. It, in fact, acted as a catalyst for a huge Muslim Brotherhood power-grab. Out of the 444 seats in Egypt’s parliament, 88 seats went to Muslim Brotherhood members (running as independents), hundreds went to the NDP, while less than half the number of seats gained by the Brotherhood went to other reformers (neither Brotherhood nor NDP members). Thus, we have certainly seen in recent times what a more open democratic process looks like in Egypt. A well-organized, popular Islamist faction, working in conjunction with non-Islamist reformers, capably co-opted democratic momentum. It is these same actors — the same coalition — working to overthrow the Mubarak regime in Egypt today. What reason do we have to expect different electoral results?

Even in the best case scenario, one in which moderate reformers achieve perhaps equal gains with the Islamists, most of the anti-Mubarak opposition is nonetheless united with respect to its enmity toward the U.S. and Israel (in addition to its desire for genuine democratic reforms). The includes Kefaya’s socialist youth component. In fact, when Kefaya began to fall apart after the 2005 election, a youth group called Youth for Changed announced that it would withdraw because the coalition was not sufficiently anti-Israel and anti-American.

It was the socialist youth movement of Kefaya that spawned April 6th Movement, which is widely credited with igniting the current Egyptian uprising and is responsible for much of its organization. One of the key figures behind the April 6th Movement is Ahmed Maher, who had previously worked with Kefaya. The April 6th Movement seeks political and socialist reforms, such as a minimum monthly wage, and one of its major independent enterprises (whence it derives its name) was a successful national labor strike, organized in the spring of 2008. Like other sectors of the Egyptian youth movement, the April 6th Movement has a strong an anti-Israel component. Among its political demands, the group calls for an end to gas exports to Israel, according to its blog. Gas from Egypt is exported to many countries around the world, although the group only demands a cessation of exports to the Jewish State.

In January 2009, the April 6th Youth Movement joined in vicious protests against Israel for its retaliation against Hamas rocket attacks. According to a New York Times profile, the protests were mostly led by the Muslim Brotherhood. In their anger over Israel’s attack on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, demonstrators condemned Mubarak for maintaining relations with Israel, exporting natural gas to Israel, and for restricting movement through Egypt’s border into Gaza.

In addition to joining with the Muslim Brotherhood in the past and during the current unrest, the internet-savvy, socialist youth movement has been very supportive of Mohamed ElBaradei, leader of the Egyptian umbrella-group, National Association for Change (NAC). According to a report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the NAC was formed in 2010 by ElBaradei to “rejuvenate the opposition scene,” presumably Kefaya. Other reports have noted that, sensing instability in the Mubarak regime, NAC’s purpose was to facilitate the president’s ouster and to serve as a “shadow parliament.”

Not only has the Muslim Brotherhood recently endorsed ElBaradei to lead the anti-Mubarak opposition, but it has a history of working with ElBaradei and the NAC in the past. In a 2010 petition campaign, the NAC received crucial support from the Brotherhood. In a show of the Islamist group’s clout among the Egyptian people, the Brotherhood was responsible for collection 2/3 of the petition’s 300,000 plus signatures, the Washington Times reported. ElBaradei himself is a controversial figure. Although it is true that he has had amicable relations with President Barack Obama in the past, as director general of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, ElBaradei was a vocal critic of the Bush administration, who accused ElBaradei of “muddying” the issue of nuclear deterrence to Iran’s advantage. ElBaradei was hostile to the international community’s position on nuclear non-proliferation, claiming that the double standard of allowing some nations to have a nuclear arsenal (i.e. Israel), while forbidding others, has lost credibility in the Arab world. The Israeli government at the time viewed him as dangerous and said that he threatened world peace.

Thus, the major players of the anti-Mubarak opposition should give us a great deal of pause. Another power-grab by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions, as is certainly within the realm of possibilities, would be a catastrophic loss for U.S. interests, the region, and for the Egyptian people themselves. On the other hand, the prospect of non-Islamist opposition in the seat of power is cold comfort to a weary Israel, a crucial bulwark of peace in the region, which stands to lose its most reliable Arab ally to pervasive anti-Israelism. Whether Mubarak’s reign will terminate sooner than later is rather immaterial in light of these seemingly unalterable alternatives.

Original URL: http://frontpagemag.com/2011/02/07/anatomy-of-a-revolution/

Nichole Hungerford

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Egypt's Two Sets of Books


by Tuvia Tenenbom

You must admit that Western journalists are smart. Just read what they write, or watch them on TV. They explain everything: It was only due to the ever increasing cost of ink, and the ever shrinking space of airtime, forever taken up by the life-saving commercials, that not a single of one them ever mentioned that a spontaneous uprising, locally known as an Intifada, was about to start up in late January, 2011.

The same applies to our Western leaders. Take our own "Let me be clear" President. He knows exactly what should be done, and this is why he constantly changes his mind. He presides over a country that gives billions to Egypt, because it is such a great country, but he wants this same country to change at once because it is such a bad country. Let me be clear: there is no contradiction at all here between the two. He also says he believes that America should not get involved in anybody else's business, and this is why he does not stop getting involved. No contradiction here either.

Other Western leaders agree with him. They say they believe that Egypt can be transformed into a democracy in just about 24 hours. How do they know? They read it in the papers. Yes, if you happened to read the Washington Post or The New York Times recently, you would have noticed that our government followed what the papers recommended within hours. The papers said to be tougher on Mubarak, the White House immediately followed – Great! Shows the power of democracy. It takes less than one day after an opinion is published for it to become government policy. We must export this wisdom overseas. Egypt should become democratic -- Today.

No, do not fear that the Muslim Brotherhood, or some other extremists, would take hold in Egypt. It will never happen. How do we know? The papers say so. Well, perhaps it did happen to the Palestinians and the Algerians: they held elections and the extremists won. But perhaps that is not really not happened; perhaps it just looked as if it did. Look at Turkey, what great democrat we have there: Erdogan. Soon women in Turkey will be allowed to wear the Burkah. Everywhere. Isn't this proof of democracy? You bet. How do you know? You read it in the papers -- Western papers and Western websites, by Western journalists; some of the best of them. How do they know? They wrote it.

If I write that Islamic societies are at the core completely secular, and that The Muslim Brotherhood, contrary to what people think, is a secular institution, this makes it true. How do I know? I just wrote it. Isn't Democracy great?

But imagine the day this brand of Democracy comes to Egypt, and the writers they follow are those of Al-Jazeera.

Here is what was in Al-Jazeera in Arabic yesterday:

One picture: two old Egyptian women, grandmas, are on their knees on a prayer mat laid on a dirty ground next to a row of tough, young Egyptian security men. Both women are praying, and seem to be crying as well. The title above: "Ya Egypt, You Mother of My Soul." Next picture: Hosni Mubarak and Benjamin Netanyahu, Both are well dressed, sit in a gorgeously decorated room, smile and shake hands: great friends. Taken "last month," the caption says. The choice between the two pictures is clear: You are either with the crying grandmas on the dirty floor or with the smiling Zionist in the rich room. Nothing in between. Choose.

The day before, Al-Jazeera's website in Arabic ran an article about why Israel prefers to have Omar Suleiman, Mubarak's choice, as the head of the Egyptian government. The day before that, it showed a picture of a demonstrator holding an image of Mubarak with a Star-of-David on his forehead.

There are no leaders in Egypt to follow Al-Jazeera, just plenty of demonstrators. And they do. They see these images and they know what they should do: Mubarak is a Jew-lover; he must go.

Two weeks ago, nobody knew what these demonstrations would become, but a Qatari knew – and made sure what they would become. This Qatari is Al-Jazeera. It pushed and pushed, and everybody fell into the pit -- including our best journalists. They watch Al-Jazeera in English; the demonstrators watch Al-Jazeera in Arabic. The English Al-Jazeera fights for freedom; the Arabic Al-Jazeera fights against the Jew-lover. This is how a world might change.

The West thinks that what it reads or watches exists. But the East is a land of magical stories: what you see is not what exists. Never.

The biggest story the Western can come up with is this: A country of 85 million -- mostly very religious people -- will be able to transform itself into a secular democracy at once. This is not imagination; this is naiveté. Well intentioned, perhaps, but still "let me be clear" naiveté.

The East, on the other hand, is different. It always has two sets of books, at least. Al-Jazeera is no different: it has one set for the naïve Westerners, and another for the brothers and sisters.

We think that our society is better, that we are smarter. What we fail to understand is that a story is more powerful than an argument, and imagination works more magic than logic. And an image is stronger than a word.

Unless we make a real effort to learn the ways of the East, we had better not get involved. A little humility might help, too. None of us knows where this story will end; no matter what takes place in the next few days in Cairo, the story of Egypt is far from over – let alone the story of the Arab world.

Al-Jazeera has more photos up its sleeves.

Original URL:http://www.hudson-ny.org/1864/egypt-two-sets-of-books

Tuvia Tenenbom

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

What Waziristan Means for Afghanistan


by Andrew M. Roe

The Afghan conflict has refocused world attention on Waziristan. Once one of the British Empire's most volatile territories, the remote small province in northwestern Pakistan is now home to Taliban insurgents, al-Qaeda fighters, rogue elements within the Pakistani military, and Western jihadists, who use it as a base to rest, heal, rearm, train, and plan before they launch again across the porous border into Afghanistan. It is also the area where Osama bin Laden and many of his top lieutenants are probably hiding and a regular target for U.S. air strikes against key Taliban personnel. Pakistani military operations destroyed insurgent forces and caused mass civilian dislocation, yet efforts to produce a lasting peace deal with the local tribesmen and the Taliban have proved futile. Waziristan remains a dangerous and unpredictable region with the potential to unhinge President Hamid Karzai's fragile regime in Afghanistan, threaten the Pakistani government, and pose a major challenge to regional stability.

Photo courtesy of the Green Howards Museum, Richmond, N. Yorkshire, England. A British battalion patrols in Waziristan, 1938. Military operations were finite in duration and localized in their employment. Against a fiercely independent and fanatical foe, any enduring occupation of tribal territory by foreigners was hotly contested.

The pertinent lessons from Britain's experience in the region can help policymakers understand and address present-day challenges in the same geographical area, not least since the British faced the same issues and had several of the same internal arguments. To be sure, there are significant differences separating the British experience in Waziristan from that which now confronts the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which in turn set restrictions to what can be derived from the past. As Captain John Girling, a south Waziristan scout veteran, recalled in 2009: "Up to ten years ago there were [contemporary] similarities, but since the coming of the Taliban, I can't see any similarities."[1]

However, despite the passage of time and the change in technological and geopolitical circumstances, some of the parallels between the British experience of Waziristan and NATO's remain pertinent and provide valuable insights to today's political and military strategists.

The British System of Control

During the nineteenth and early twentieth century, the British colonial administration was responsible for the complex task of maintaining law and order in Waziristan. After decades of unwanted and costly experimentation, the British decided that hands-off "containment" was the best policy. Control, as in the Indian states, was neither necessary, desirable, nor practicable. With limited resources, control was exercised by the distribution of allowances to sympathetic maliks (tribal representatives or elders) and by the employment of locally recruited kassadar (tribal policemen) and indigenous forces, known as scouts or the Irregular Frontier Corps.[2] Each proved invaluable in maintaining order and relieving regular troops of the expensive work of garrisoning frontier outposts. In the event of any situation escalating out of control, the army of India was the fallback force on the frontier. This multilayered structure brought effective governance to the fractious inhabitants via a sliding scale of violence: first enticements, rewards, and threats; next tribal kassadars, then the lightly-armed scouts; only in extremis, when outbreaks were too excessive to be controlled by the scouts, would the political authorities call on the army to conduct a punitive expedition in order to administer punishment. Working with the forces in society and grounding policy in regional realities offered the only hope of controlling the unpredictable and confrontational tribesmen.

Despite this deft approach, based on organizations that were relatively optimal to the demands of the region and sympathetic to local conditions, the constant threat of tribal unrest remained. In 1936, a compelling leader and frontier personality, known as the Fakir of Ipi, began a political career that tested the British administrative and military apparatus from the time he instigated a rebellion in Waziristan until Britain's departure in 1947.[3] Even though he possessed no formal military training, the fakir provided a charismatic figurehead to the rebellion and maintained his position through dogged determination, strength of personality, and an elevated religious position. As a rebel leader he was uncompromising and his hatred of the British celebrated. Such was his belief in local Muslim grievances and desire for an independent Pashtunistan that he possessed the nerve and courage to face considerable danger and privation. The more the fakir eluded government forces and guided the insurrection, the more his divine status was confirmed. Despite the employment of more than 40,000 British and Indian troops to locate his whereabouts in Waziristan, the fakir continued to evade capture and frustrate his pursuers. He died of natural causes in 1960, having never faced a magistrate's bench.

Despite injecting large numbers of military reinforcements into tribal territory in 1936-37 in pursuit of the fakir, the British never sought full control in the latter years of the colonial period. Military operations were finite in duration and localized in their employment. Against a fiercely independent and fanatical foe, any enduring occupation of tribal territory by foreigners was hotly contested. Political primacy remained paramount, and routine control occurred via the locally recruited scouts and kassadars. This approach was based on a light touch, commitment, and continuity but was underpinned by an early and firm response if the tribes stepped out of line. As a rule, the rights and customs of the tribesmen were respected; nothing was ever done to interfere with their religious beliefs and customs. Only a deep-seated knowledge of the region, gained through regular contact and an enduring desire to learn, helped point to the conditions necessary to help maintain tribal control.

Waziristan Has Changed Little

There are many aspects of Waziristan that remain the same. Predictably, the topography has altered little since the British departed in 1947, and the mountainous terrain still influences tribal culture and linkages.[4] Likewise, the region is still inhabited by a complex mixture of independent tribes that have changed little over the years. For the majority of tribesmen, life is still tedious, and opportunities for excitement and travel are rare. Moreover, the inaccessible terrain continues to make the region an impregnable base in which to hide, train, and launch attacks. Insurgent and fugitive forces have little difficulty in finding long-term sanctuary in the region; it is almost impossible to distinguish militants from peaceful tribesmen. Equally, the terrain helps to mitigate technological advances and frustrates regular forces. Accurate or timely intelligence is rarely available. The climate remains extreme, and the region still suffers from elevated levels of poverty and underdevelopment.[5] Unemployment, illiteracy, and infant mortality remain high. Access to medical facilities in many remote regions is almost nonexistent. It remains an area in desperate need of social and economic development. Likewise, the tribes remain particularly susceptible to blood feuds and religious extremists. As with their ancestors, the tribesmen continue to resist outside influence or control, regardless of its legitimacy, and regard any foreign presence as a personal affront to their independence. The Hindu and the Westerner are equally foreign to the tribesmen. Pashtunwali—the tribal code of honor—still usurps Islamic Shari'a (Islamic law), and internal politics still govern tribal behavior.

These similarities notwithstanding, there are a number of notable differences that have occurred over recent years. Perhaps the most disturbing is the number of maliks who have been intimidated or killed by the local Taliban. In a sustained process of creeping "Talibanization" across Waziristan, the militants have employed a reign of terror against tribal maliks and alleged government sympathizers. Such targeted violence has generated new tensions that have further added to the region's volatility and unpredictability. This is not without precedent. As one tribesman warned the British commander in the province, Mountstuart Elphinstone, in 1809: "We are content with discord; we are content with alarms; we are content with blood ... we will never be content with a master."[6] Nonetheless, many local leaders have been replaced by radicalized Taliban substitutes. Several have established tacit control over large areas, imposing a strict interpretation of Islam. Such leaders provide a recognized chain of command and a clear hierarchy. They also provide basic, if limited, training and engender tribal discipline. However, in overriding the traditional tribal hierarchy, the Taliban have unconsciously damaged long-established Pashtun civil society and reinforced ethnic suspicion. Fortunately, the damage is repairable and the foundations of society remain strong. It is not surprising, therefore, that Christian Tripodi, a lecturer at the U.K. Joint Services Command and Staff College, cautions that the difficulties experienced by Pakistan's political and military initiatives to control the federally administrated tribal areas indicate that the tribes are just as complex to handle today as they ever were in colonial times "even for those sharing the same religious and cultural affiliation."[7]

Significant parallels exist between the pursuit of the Fakir of Ipi and that of Osama bin Laden. These have not gone unnoticed, and the fakir's celebrated exploits have experienced a superficial renaissance in recent years. Several newspaper articles have suggested that bin Laden can draw lessons from the fakir's insurgency and the inability of the British to kill or capture him.[8] Others point to the practical frustrations of trying to capture a high profile outlaw in tribal territory. Or as one 2007 article cautioned:

For nearly a decade, the British army chased him [the Fakir of Ipi] and his followers through the remote reaches of Waziristan and the North-West Frontier Province—the same ground where allied troops have spent the past five years searching fruitlessly for bin Laden, and where the remnants of Afghanistan's Taliban fled to lick their wounds and recover their strength. The region was then, as it is today, a powder keg of fractious tribes and fundamentalist firebrands, and Britain's experience with trying to capture Khan mirrors the frustrating hunt for bin Laden.[9]

Despite well-developed political and military machinery, the British government consistently failed to kill or capture the fakir or fully negate his influence. Bombing raids by the Royal Air Force and several division-strength operations proved futile. The fakir's superior local intelligence, mobility, and ability to blend in with the indigenous tribesmen routinely thwarted British efforts despite the most troop-intensive British counter-insurgency of the twentieth century. Similarly, coalition forces, despite employing advanced technology, have failed to kill or capture bin Laden or eradicate al-Qaeda from the Pashtun tribal areas astride the border.[10] Yet far from being frustrated by this similarity, coalition forces can draw some comfort from one aspect of this important parallel. Both leaders experienced a high point in their popularity followed by a gradual decrease in their influence. In the case of the fakir, he lost most of his influence with India's independence and became little more than an irritant to the Pakistani government. Likewise, bin Laden's authority has diminished considerably in recent years. No longer the real impetus behind al-Qaeda, he remains the notional or spiritual head but has largely been eclipsed by his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who has emerged as the organization's strategist and driving force, supported by a network of independent and autonomous leaders.[11]

At the same time, this hydra-like insurgency, based on a highly decentralized and geographically localized approach, also highlights the difficulties of countering a distributed insurgency under local control. Delegating responsibility to a changing structure of loyal lieutenants, who have a profound interest in the continuation of hostile activities because their stature and raison d'être often depend on their militant activity, is particularly difficult to counter. They can exhaust and overstretch occupation forces and frustrate the penetration of the state. Decapitating any of the current leadership will therefore do little more than buy time. As recent history proves, there are always plenty of ambitious individuals in the wings ready to take on the challenge of leadership. Tackling the cause of the violence and not the symptoms is the key to lasting success.

The Significance of Cultural Acuity

Failure to understand cultural norms and practices or to dismiss their significance can lead to extreme danger and adversely affect campaign authority. In March 2006, Canadian soldiers conducting a routine meeting with tribal leaders in the Shah Wali Kot district in southern Afghanistan were assaulted by an axe-wielding tribesman who seriously wounded an officer. Members of the patrol had assumed that they would be relatively safe from assault while conducting the meeting "primarily because of the supposed protection and application of pashtunwali."[12] Immediately following the event, the resident Canadian unit undertook a highly focused information operations campaign, exploiting the pashtunwali tenet of hospitality (melmastia) to discredit both the attacker and the village in which the meeting occurred. At the tactical level, this approach experienced some success with the village losing honor with many of the tribesmen in the region. However, the incident exposed two important aspects of the tribal code:

First, the question must be asked as to whether or not the villagers saw the soldiers as legitimate guests, or as unwanted visitors? ... If guests, then the provision of pashtunwali should have applied and our [the Canadian army's] resultant actions can be seen as appropriate. If the soldiers and their leaders were not invited, then there is certainly scope to view the attack as justifiable in the mind of the attacker and his fellow insurgents.

Second, in using the principles and practices of pashtunwali to bring discredit to the village involved, one has to ask whether or not our actions reinforced the legitimate government of Afghanistan or eroded its authority in that particular district? Certainly there was nothing wrong with a response to the attack that would be understood by local villagers, as well as demonstrating that we understood elements of their cultural makeup. However, in reinforcing the legitimacy of the jirga [assembly or parliament of tribal representatives] and the code itself, we were not reinforcing the short-term perspective with regard to the authority of President Karzai in that one particular region of Kandahar province.[13]

As the British experienced in the colonial period, cultural acuity must extend beyond those engaged in everyday contact with the tribesmen. Since policy is often determined by those in distant capitals, politicians and senior military commanders must also understand regional culture, customs, ethnicity, and religion. This is equally true of nongovernmental organizations, such as private military companies and aid organizations. Failure to understand these complex dynamics can have a damaging effect on campaign consent.[14] Likewise, policymakers must be tolerant of indigenous assumptions, methods of behavior, and everyday life choices. These will undoubtedly pose moral dilemmas for foreign and regional governments. Western values, free markets, and standards of government are often alien to indigenous populations. Expecting either a strong centrist or Western-style administration to take hold in a conservative tribal region with no recent history of strong central government is unreasonable.

Cultural understanding between governmental and nongovernmental organizations is just as important and will help to reduce friction. It will also assist in building effective working relationships and negate procedural barriers. Linked to cultural understanding is the ability to communicate. As one commentator on the frontier noted, "The gain in personal influence, besides other advantages, which an ability to converse directly with the people gives an Englishman among Pathans is so obvious that I need not dilate on it."[15] The same is equally true today. However, due to the difficulty of learning Pashtu, few Western politicians or military commanders possess the ability to converse with the tribesmen without the use of an interpreter.

Cultural acuity remains an important but insufficiently resourced goal. Regular rotations of military commanders and political reshuffles continue to thwart an in-depth understanding of cultural norms and standards on the frontier. Not surprisingly, this has resulted in some Western policymakers disregarding or downplaying the primacy of cultural values in their efforts to shape policy along the Afghan-Pakistani border. In contrast, the Taliban and al-Qaeda cleverly exploit them for "recruitment, shelter, and social mobilization."[16] The key to success is translating cultural understanding into effective frontier policy, enabling NATO better to achieve its goals. However, to do this effectively requires a lifetime of specialized study and long periods of unbroken service. Creating an organization similar to the Civil Service of Pakistan in southern Afghanistan may be one initiative to help address the deficiency of cultural awareness and regional knowledge along the border.

The Importance of Border Control

The Afghan-Pakistani border, the Durand Line, is 1,640 miles long. It follows arbitrary geographical features and represents the historical limits of British authority in 1893. With little consideration for tribal or ethnic boundaries, the border divided the Pathan tribes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since its establishment, the artificial border has been viewed with disdain and is largely ignored by politicians and tribesmen on both sides of the divide. In practical terms, the border is not enforced and, arguably, not enforceable. In countless places, the line of demarcation remains contested. In others, it dissects villages and even individual homes between two opposing governments. Tribesmen from both sides of the border continue to cross freely, often using hidden mountain tracks. A significant number of tribesmen have family ties on both sides.

The Soviets, like the British, tried to exert greater control along the border in the 1980s, but their efforts proved futile. Due to growing frustrations, they resorted to draconian measures, including mining trade routes throughout the area.[17] This failed to bring an end to cross-border movement and the supply of vital aid. After the Soviet withdrawal, the security of the border was largely ignored, and both sides only saw fit to hold key entry and exit points. However, as a result of growing coalition pressure, this policy has changed. Increasing efforts are now being made to secure the border through a combination of manned crossing points, improved surveillance, and focused patrolling. Pakistani projects are also underway to "fence off" sections of the border and to restrict movement in and out of Pakistan, primarily through the use of antipersonnel mines. In the long term, this initiative aims to contain the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan although in the short to medium term, it is expected to fuel more fighting on Pakistani soil.[18]

Restricted access and antipersonnel mines will only go so far. Atlantic Monthly correspondent and author Robert Kaplan points to one reason why: "Only Pathans could make walking through a minefield a test of manhood."[19] To overcome such realities, both governments should formally recognize the international border and place historical bitterness and mistrust behind them. They will also have to view the border as a joint problem, requiring joint solutions. Likewise, both armies must patrol their side of the border effectively and work together to monitor militant activity and provide early warning of cross-border movement. They should also combine the use of information operations to influence the local tribesmen.

Indigenous forces, like the paramilitary Frontier Corps, are best placed to undertake the difficult task of controlling the frontier.[20] Should regular forces be required, these must consist of Pashtun units—mixed battalions, as the British experienced, will have little success. Outsiders will not be tolerated in tribal territory. This will prove particularly challenging for the Pakistanis. Ethnic Punjabis dominate the army, and their presence in tribal territory will be a constant affront to the tribesmen. Moreover, efforts to control the border must not challenge the autonomy and freedom of the tribesmen. Communication, economic development, and cultural ties must not be severed. Achieving an effective balance will be difficult. In 1975, Wali Khan, the National Awami Party leader, was asked if he was "a Muslim, a Pakistani, or a Pashtun first?" His reply highlighted the complexity of the border problem. Khan responded by saying that he was "a six-thousand-year-old Pashtun, a thousand-year-old Muslim and a twenty-seven year old Pakistani."[21]

The coalition presence in Afghanistan continues to provide a visible target and rallying point for the extremists. As the British experience proved, the presence of Western forces in tribal territory is a constant affront to the tribesmen and provides a welcome opportunity to test their manhood and courage against a recognized foe. To overcome this, the coalition should give thought to reducing its footprint in the provinces along the Afghan-Pakistani border and make better use of locally recruited forces, for example, the nascent Afghan border police. Despite ethnic tensions and desertions, the Afghan National Army has the skill and weaponry to maintain stability along its side of the border. However, it lacks specialist technology, so intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communication assistance will be required in the short term. It should also conduct operations on terms that the tribesmen accept and understand. This will undoubtedly require compromise. The same shortfalls are equally true of the Pakistani army, which, in addition, can also rely on the highly skilled militias of the Frontier Corps.[22] Should Western coalition forces be required in tribal territory on the Afghan side of the border, they should only deploy for a finite period of time against a recognized target. Only in extremis should coalition forces cross the border into Pakistan. Advanced technology and long-range weapons should be used where possible to negate the need for inserting troops on the ground.

Lessons of History

The past provides a useful blueprint for adaptation, and Waziristan provides good proof of this. Certain combined measures worked to settle, suppress, and pacify the region during the colonial period. For example, the establishment of a robust network of roads, medical missions, the payment of allowances, and the employment of political officers, indigenous scouts, and tribal police all helped to control the region within recognized limitations. Predictably, this was not lost on the Pakistanis, and the established methods of British tribal control remained largely in place until late 2001.[23]

Growing U.S. political pressure resulted in President Musharraf resorting to greater military action, including the use of helicopter gunships and artillery, to quash the upsurge of violence emanating from tribal territory. Unfortunately, the Pakistani army was an organization structured and trained for a conventional fight against India, Pakistan's arch-rival, and ill-prepared for guerrilla warfare on the frontier. The army's ham-fisted approach to the unique problems of the frontier irritated and alienated the indigenous tribesmen. The ensuing breakdown in relations was entirely predictable.

A return to the British approach to tribal management has merit for the entire Pashtun tribal belt. A small number of politicians and military commanders have drawn valuable lessons from the British historical experience. Gen. Sir David Richards, commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan from May 2006 to February 2007, for example, pointed to the contemporary utility of establishing influence through the "lavish use of money":

Our modern scruples might not permit it, but I think you could buy off 90 percent of the opposition tomorrow in the way our grandfathers would have done. Instead, today we seek influence through reconstruction and development—but that is in danger of not keeping pace with people's expectations. Nor does such an approach chime with the feudal nature of a society … Our colonial forebears understood the way feudal societies worked; for the most part, we don't.[24]

Richards went on to highlight another important historical parallel:

we always worked very hard on achieving and maintaining consent: Countless hours were spent talking to tribal elders and other influential people. We had to justify ourselves to them, explain what we were trying to achieve, and work to retain their support. That is an abiding lesson from our own historical experience, which we relearned and applied pretty aggressively.[25]

However, at the psychological level, the notion of a colonial model of control will be unacceptable to the tribesmen unless re-branded within a recognized, ethnic framework.[26] This is best achieved by electing empowered, provincial governors and providing them with clear jurisdiction. Selected individuals could be tasked with overseeing regional security and reconstruction. However, proficiency will be based on education, experience, and personality; selecting the right individual will be the key. Moreover, in addition to decentralized control, multiple lines of economic and social development will be central to controlling the region in the long term. These need to be approved by tribal leaders and have the consent of the tribesmen and their families. They must also reflect population densities. For example, the lines of development in sparsely populated rural areas must be different from those in the densely populated urban areas. One size will not fit all.

Pan-regional initiatives should focus on strengthening traditional tribal structures and on bringing rapid improvements to the lives of the tribesmen. Health programs and food aid are also essential and would go some way to addressing allegations of regional discrimination. Even a small amount of the US$80 million a month "coalition support fund," paid to reimburse Pakistan's military for the cost of their counterinsurgency operations, would help to redress the perceived imbalance.[27] But the reality is that social and economic development will take a long time, and patience is essential. Moreover, aid must be administered by the tribesmen themselves, no matter how haphazardly they do it. Outsiders operating in tribal territory would polarize the tribesmen and further add to the volatility of the region.

A Wider Regional Solution

The disturbing growth of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the isolated Pashtun tribal belt astride the Afghan-Pakistani border is a major cause for concern. A growing alignment of the Pasthun nationalist movement and radical, militant leadership could lead to the unification of approximately forty million tribesmen on both sides of the Durand Line.[28] In theory, this could result in the breakup of Afghanistan and Pakistan, both fragile multiethnic states, and allow the emergence of a new radicalized state: Pakhtunistan. Fortunately, two prominent fault lines exist in this hypothesis. First, many of the tribesmen dislike the extremists and would not throw in their lot with religious fanatics and suicide bombers. The growing friction between the Taliban and the tribal leadership (both malik and mullah) is evidence of this growing rift.[29] Second, the notion of a unified Pashtunistan has always been predominantly symbolic. Trying to unite the fiercely independent and autonomous tribes into a cohesive whole would be difficult. This could only occur under extreme duress or under the inspiration of a charismatic leader. However, the signs are increasingly apparent that this might be possible. As the Pakistani ambassador, Mahmud Ali Durrani, cautioned in March 2007, "I hope the Taliban and Pashtun nationalism don't merge. If that happens, we've had it, and we're on the verge of that."[30]

Unlike the challenges faced by the British in the first half of the twentieth century, this is no longer simply a regional dilemma. Instead, the tribal complexities demand an international approach, based on shared security objectives. Political efforts must be made to succeed in driving an irreparable wedge between the moderate or reconcilable Taliban and extremist and irreconcilable Taliban associated with al-Qaeda. Provincial autonomy should also be considered. It worked well for the British and could help reinforce the long-term survival of Pakistan in its current form. Likewise, both governments must address the long-standing conflicts over the frontier region. In short, the border tribesmen must be a key part of the solution and not just the target audience.

Conclusion

If the past is prologue, the British experience of Waziristan points to a difficult and frustrating road ahead. A violence-truce-violence cycle can be expected along the border with cease-fires both fragile and short-lived. For the most part, government forces will not encounter direct military confrontation. Organized resistance will consist of sniping, ambushing, and the use of mines, homemade explosive devices, roadside bombs, and suicide bombers. Insurgents will not employ the rules of conventional warfare, and tactical errors will never go unpunished. Militant tribesmen will display remarkable levels of ingenuity, physical endurance, and tenacity; opportunities for decisive effect will be fleeting and unconventional. Initiative will be required at all levels. Government reprisals will struggle to achieve surprise, and tribesmen will regularly withdraw to isolated caves or remote valleys to seek sanctuary where it will be problematic to distinguish between friend and foe. The danger is that military operations will run at a tempo and a momentum that misleads commanders into thinking that they are succeeding. Only a holistic, joint, and measured approach, employing all the elements of national power, will offer the greatest opportunity for pacifying the region and gaining consent. This must be consistent, sensitive, agile, and coherent.

In the short term, perhaps the best that can be achieved is containment; a safe, democratic, and prosperous area may be too much for which to hope. Political objectives must be realistic and born of pragmatism. However, failure to address the long-term challenges of the region with a firm and consistent policy could be disastrous for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The stakes are high, and it would be wise to heed Lord Curzon, a former viceroy: "No man who has ever read the pages of Indian history will ever prophesy about the frontier."[31] When governments are short of ideas, and the "Talibanization" of the frontier is gaining momentum, the historical British approach to Waziristan offers a number of valuable insights and practical measures worthy of consideration.

[1] Frank Ellis, "Arts and Books," The Salisbury Review, Sept. 2010.
[2] W. I. Moberly, Raj and Post-Raj (Edinburgh: Pentland Press, 1985), p. 69.
[3] Alan Warren, Waziristan, the Faqir of Ipi, and the Indian Army (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).
[4] Hugh R.C. Pettigrew, Frontier Scouts (Selsey: privately printed, 1964), p. 100.
[5] Barnett R. Rubin and Abubakar Siddique, "Resolving the Pakistan-Afghanistan Stalemate," Special Report 176 (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, Oct. 2006), p. 13.
[6] Stephen Tanner, Afghanistan: A Military History from Alexander the Great to the Fall of the Taliban (New York: Da Capo, 2002), p. 134.
[7] Christian Tripodi, "Cultural Understanding: Its Utility and Influence: The British Experience on the North-West Frontier, 1918-1939," British Army Review, Spring 2008, p. 26.
[8] T. Harding, "How the British Empire Failed to Tame the Terrorist Fakir of Ipi," The Daily Telegraph (London), Nov. 15, 2001; Newsweek, May 30, 2005.
[9] Time, Apr. 19, 2007.
[10] Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire (New York: The Free Press, 2006), p. 220.
[11] "Profile: Ayman al-Zawahiri," BBC News, Sept. 27, 2004.
[12] Richard Tod Strickland, "The Way of the Pashtun: Pashtunwali," Canadian Army Journal, Fall 2007, p. 44.
[13] Ibid, p. 53.
[14] Montgomery McFate, "Does Culture Matter? The Military Utility of Understanding Adversary Culture," Joint Forces Quarterly, 38 (2005): 42-8.
[15] Septimus S. Thorburn, Bannu, Our Afghan Frontier (Whitefish, Mont.: Kessinger Publishing, 2004), p. 166.
[16] Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason, "No Sign until the Burst of Fire," International Security, Spring 2008, p. 64.
[17] Sean M. Maloney, Enduring the Freedom (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2005), p. 294.
[18] Usman Ansari, "Cobras over the Frontier," Air Forces Monthly, Apr. 2008, p. 66.
[19] Robert D. Kaplan, Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warriors in Afghanistan and Pakistan (New York: Vintage Books, 2001), p. 22.
[20] Robert F. Baumann, "Russian-Soviet Unconventional Wars in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Afghanistan," Leavenworth Papers, no. 20, Combat Studies Institute, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Leavenworth, Kans., 1993, p. 167.
[21] Selig S. Harrison, "Pashtunistan: The Challenge to Pakistan and Afghanistan," Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, Apr. 2, 2008, p. 3.
[22] Musharraf, In the Line of Fire, p. 271.
[23] Ibid., pp. 201-4; Maloney, Enduring the Freedom, p. 294.
[24] Richard Cobbold, "RUSI Interview with General David Richards," Journal of the Royal Artillery, Autumn 2007, p. 57.
[25] Ibid, p. 56.
[26] Rory Stewart and Sherard Cowper-Coles, "Are We Failing in Afghanistan?" British Army Review, Spring 2008, p. 10.
[27] The U.S. provided approximately $10.5 billion in aid to Pakistan from 2002-07. Just over $5.5 billion was earmarked by Islamabad for the tribal territory, but only 4 percent was used on nonmilitary projects.
[28] New World Encyclopedia, Nov. 27, 2008, s.v. Pashtun people.
[29] Abdulkader H. Sinno, Organizations at War in Afghanistan and Beyond (New York: Cornell University Press, 2008), pp. 237-45.
[30] Harrison, "Pashtunistan: The Challenge to Pakistan and Afghanistan," p. 5.
[31] George N. Curzon, Speeches as Viceroy and Governor-General of India, 1898-1905 (London: Macmillan, 1906), p. 43.


Original URL: http://www.meforum.org/2830/waziristan-afghanistan

Andrew M. Roe, a British infantry officer, who recently served as an Afghan kandak commander mentor for six months, is the author of Waging War in Waziristan (University Press of Kansas, 2010) from which this article is adapted.

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood: In Their Own Words


by Jonathan D. Halevi

  • The Muslim Brotherhood has taken a greater role in organizing the protest against the Egyptian regime as it unfolds its independent political agenda. Rashad al-Bayumi, the Brotherhood's second-in-command, announced in an interview with Japanese TV that the group would join a transitional government in order to cancel the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, as it "offends the Arabs' dignity and destroys the interests of Egypt and other Arab states." He further stressed that Egypt does not need American aid.

  • The Muslim Brotherhood does indeed participate in political activity and defend the democratic process. That is not, however, because it has accepted the principles of Western democracy, but rather because the democratic process can be exploited to establish an Islamic regime which will then render democracy unnecessary.

  • Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide Muhammad Mahdi ‘Akef told the Egyptian daily Al-Karama in 2007 that only Islam was the expression of true democracy. "Islam and its values antedated the West by founding true democracy, exemplified by the Shura [the advisory council under the Caliphs]."

  • The Brotherhood's official website notes that jihad is Islam's most important tool in effecting a gradual takeover, beginning with the Muslim countries, moving on to reestablishing the Caliphate over three continents in preparation for a conquest of the West, and finally instituting a global Islamic state.

  • The Muslim Brotherhood's step-by-step plan dictates its supposed "moderation," which will gradually vanish as its achievements increase and its acceptance of the existing situation is replaced by a strict, orthodox Muslim rule whose foreign policy is based on jihad.

Muslim Brotherhood to Join a Transitional Government

The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately and turn over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats told the New York Times on February 3. According to the American proposal, the transitional government will include members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood, a global movement with Hamas as its Palestinian branch, has taken a greater role in organizing the protest against the Egyptian regime as it unfolds its independent political agenda, defying both the American administration and Israel. Rashad al-Bayumi, the Muslim Brotherhood's second-in-command, announced in an interview with Japanese TV (and cited by al-Hayat) that the group would join a transitional government in order to cancel the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, as it "offends the Arabs' dignity and destroys the interests of Egypt and other Arab states." He further explained that his animosity to the American administration stems from its support for Israel, stressing that Egypt does not need American aid.


Democracy Is Islam's Entryway to Power

The Muslim Brotherhood does indeed participate in political activity and defend the democratic process. That is not, however, because it has accepted the principles of Western democracy, but rather because the democratic process can be exploited to establish an Islamic regime which will then render democracy unnecessary, as was made evident by its platform in the 2007 Egyptian parliamentary elections. The organization claimed to be participating in the elections because "the Muslim Brotherhood preaches the path of Allah...[and therefore it is participating] to fulfill Allah's commands in peaceful ways, using existing constitutional institutions and a decision determined by the ballot box." That is, democracy is Islam's entryway to power.

The Muslim Brotherhood platform also noted that "the rule in [Egypt] must be republican, parliamentary, constitutional and democratic in accordance with the Islamic Sharia," and that "the Sharia ensures liberty for all." The organization does not accept the principle of the separation of church and state, and the Islamic rule they aspire to is, for them, a realization of democracy.

Interviewed on September 17, 2007, by the Egyptian daily newspaper Al-Karama, Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide Muhammad Mahdi ‘Akef said that the organization's campaign slogan would be: "Sharia is the Solution" and that human rights and democracy would be included under Sharia rule. He devoted his May 12, 2007, weekly missive to an exposition of democracy as seen through Muslim Brotherhood eyes. He said that only Islam, which was given to men by Allah, was the expression of true democracy. He wrote that
Islam preceded...doctrines and ideologies devised by men. The final, absolute message from heaven contains all the values which the secular world claims to have invented....Islam and its values antedated the West by founding true democracy, exemplified by the Shura [the advisory council under the Caliphs] and Islam's respect for the equality of other religions....With regard to liberty, Islam reached a goal which secular preachers have not, for the liberty promised by Islam is genuine in every way, even in faith and religion....As to the claim that Islam does not recognize civil authority, the authority of Islam is democratic...it is genuine liberty, it provides equality in practice and is transparent, it neither oppresses nor robs any man of his rights....It is on that foundation and with those values that the Muslim Brotherhood calls for justice, equality, and liberty.

‘Akef has never equivocated regarding his views on Western democracy. On April 30, 2005, he told the Egyptian daily newspaper Al-Ahram that the Muslim Brotherhood opposed American democracy because it was "corrupt and serves the American agenda....The Muslim Brotherhood has held demonstrations against foreign intervention and against any democracy that serves the Americans....[American] democracy is corrupt because it wants to destroy the [Islamic] nation, its faith and tradition." He told the BBC that Western democracy was "unrealistic" and "false."

One of ‘Akef's examples of America's "corrupt values" is the attempt to stop female circumcision in Africa. On July 12, 2007, he wrote that "[the Americans] spend billions of dollars and endlessly plot to change the Muslim way of life, they wage war on Muslim leaders, the traditions of its faith and its ideas. They even wage war against female circumcision, a practice current in 36 countries, which has been prevalent since the time of the Pharaohs."


The Importance of Jihad

According to the Muslim Brotherhood, jihad, that is, holy war against the infidels, is one of the fundamental elements spread by the Muslim Brotherhood. The organization's ideology, as it appears on its official website, regards "the Prophet Muhammad as its leader and ruler, and jihad as its path." Jihad has a global strategy beyond self-defense; it is the unceasing attack on every infidel rule, intended to widen the borders of the Islamic state until all mankind lives under the Islamic flag.

Clicking the links "The Goals of the Muslim Brotherhood" and "Muslim Brotherhood Measures" leads to explanations of jihad based on the writings of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna. Jihad, it is noted, is Islam's most important tool in effecting a gradual takeover, beginning with the Muslim countries, moving on to re-establishing the Caliphate over three continents in preparation for a conquest of the West, and finally instituting a global Islamic state. The organization's website states:

We want a Muslim individual, a Muslim home, a Muslim people, a Muslim government and state that will lead the Islamic countries and bring into the fold the Muslim diaspora and the lands robbed from Islam and will then bear the standard of jihad and the call [da'wah] to Allah. [Then the] world will happily accept the precepts of Islam....The problems of conquering the world will only end when the flag of Islam waves and jihad has been proclaimed.

The goal is to establish one Islamic state of united Islamic countries, one nation under one leadership whose mission will be to reinforce adherence to the law of Allah...and the strengthening of the Islamic presence in the world arena....The goal...is the establishment of a world Islamic state.

And if prayer is a pillar of the faith, then jihad is its summit...and death in the path of Allah is the summit of aspiration.
The Muslim Brotherhood does not hide its global aspirations and the violent path it intends to follow to achieve them. The Brotherhood is meticulous in its step-by-step plan, first to take over the soul of the individual and then the family, people, nation and union of Islamic nations, until the global Islamic state has been realized. The principle of stages dictates the Muslim Brotherhood's supposed "moderation." However, that "moderation" will gradually vanish as Muslim Brotherhood achievements increase and its acceptance of the existing situation is replaced by a strict, orthodox Muslim rule whose foreign policy is based on jihad.

For the Muslim Brotherhood, jihad is at the center of the struggle against the United States, the West, Israel, and other infidel regimes. The supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood regards Islam as waging "a battle of values and identity" against the forces of "imperialism" and the "Anglo-Saxons" attacking the Arab-Muslim world "on the pretext of spreading democracy, defending minority rights, and opposing what they call terrorism." He advises Muslims to adopt "the culture of resistance against the invasion," explaining that Allah gave "the occupied, oppressed nations jihad and resistance as a means of achieving freedom." He added that "the culture of resistance to invasion and occupation have intellectual, military, and economic aspects. Experience in Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan have proved that resistance is not imaginary or fictitious or impossible, but rather it is possible when the [Islamic] nation presents a united front and uses its weapons and faith to face an imperialist, whether he comes with arms or inundates us with his ideas, values, or obsolete morality." Akef's successor, Mohammad Badi', maintains the same platform.

Original URL: http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=6003&TTL=Egypt%E2%80%99s_Muslim_Brotherhood:_In_Their_Own_Words

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi is a senior researcher of the Middle East and radical Islam at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He is a co-founder of the Orient Research Group Ltd. and is a former advisor to the Policy Planning Division of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.