by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Hamas has never been more isolated in the Arab world and international arena. It is wedged between the Egyptian hammer and Israeli anvil and looks to be losing the support of the people in Gaza.
Despite
the efforts to secure understandings with Hamas for a cease-fire,
Israel is struggling to restore peace and quiet along the Gaza border.
The rocket fire at Gaza-adjacent communities is continuing unabated,
together with violent disturbances on the border fence, incendiary
balloons and even infiltration attempts.
In light of the difficulties involved in
establishing a modicum of calm along the border, some Israelis are
calling on the IDF to enter and reconquer the Gaza Strip. The IDF is
undoubtedly capable of doing so, but the question is not how many days
it would take for the army to defeat Hamas, rather what would happen the
day after. More specifically, how much time would Israel have to before
it is forced to remove its forces under an onslaught of international
pressure? And even if U.S. President Donald Trump fully backs the
Israeli government, we must still consider the Israeli public's patience
before it starts calling on the government to return the boys home and
leave Gaza to the Gazans, or in other abandon them to Hamas yet again.
We can, of course, hope against hope that
the Egyptians or even Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will
agree to govern Gaza on their own. However, we can't realistically
expect the Egyptians to voluntarily spill their own blood in a fight to
topple Hamas and Abbas is likely incapable of imposing his rule in Gaza,
which he lost to Hamas a decade ago.
In Israel, there are those who seemingly
want to turn Hamas into Hezbollah. After all, this is the implication of
their calls to establish a "Lebanese quiet" along the Gaza border:
Completely disengage from Gaza under an umbrella of agreements and
understandings with Hamas, similar to those with Hezbollah. To secure
complete quiet along the Gaza border, however, Hamas must not only be as
strong as Hezbollah but free of the restrictions and blockades
currently squeezing it.
To be sure, even those who hail the quiet
on the northern border cannot ignore the price: Hezbollah has armed
itself with over 100,000 missiles, which blanket the majority of Israeli
territory. It's not certain that fleeting peace and quiet on the Gaza
border is worth such a price.
It's important to note that the current
calm along the northern border could also come with an expiration date,
after which we will learn yet again that the missiles in Hezbollah's
warehouses haven't rusted quite as fast as hoped, and that the gun from
the first act will reappear in the last act shooting.
The prevailing situation on the border with
Gaza is uncomfortable for Israel, but it mustn't be turned into a
defeat and certainly not into a victory for Hamas. The only place Hamas
is winning is in the Israeli press, which either for political reasons
or a thirst for "ratings" is painting a battered terrorist organization
as the victor.
Hamas is in a Catch-22. It is flailing and
kicking against the rising tides, mired in a war for survival it can't
truly win. Its fight is to keep its head above water, nothing more.
During its rule, Hamas has turned the Strip into a disaster zone. The
people there are suffering unprecedented economic despair. They and
their children have no hope for a better future. Now Hamas is sending
Gaza's youth to die on the border fence in a futile campaign.
Hamas has never been more isolated in the
Arab world and international arena. It is wedged between the Egyptian
hammer and Israeli anvil and looks to be losing the support of the
people in Gaza, who hold it responsible for their calamitous situation.
When Hamas is battered and weak, it has
nothing to lose, which explains Israel's struggle to deter it
sufficiently. In its weakness, however, Hamas is also willing to accept
the crumbs Israel is offering: salary payments for civil servants and
insignificant funds for economic initiatives to help it survive the
month, not longer.
Similar to its fights with other enemies in
the region, Israel's battle with Hamas won't end in some form of a
magic knock-out punch. It is an ongoing struggle where the side that is
most steadfast, and also capable of self-restraint, will emerge
victoriously. Hamas is driving quickly toward a dead end, devoid of hope
for a future. Neither a military clash with Israel nor an arrangement
with it will alter this reality.
Prof. Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/let-hamas-lose/?redirected=353355
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