Iran wants to hold region hostage with ‘retaliation op’ - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

Iran has preferred to keep the retaliation cycle going by continuing to claim it has an open account with Israel and could carry out new attacks.

 

AN IRANIAN FLAG is pictured near in a missile during a military drill, with the participation of Iran’s air defense units in October. (West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

 

Iran has been discussing retaliating against Israel for airstrikes on its territory in October. Those strikes were themselves retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on the Jewish state on October 1. Iran has preferred to keep the retaliatory cycle going by claiming it has an open account with Israel and could carry out new attacks.

The Islamic Republic wants to normalize these direct attacks on Israel and keep the region hostage to these incidents. What that means is that Iran also threatens the US and Arab states via its ever-increasing rhetoric.Iran knows that it keeps the region on edge by claiming it might attack Israel. For instance, the US has sent more aerial assets to the region and has even deployed the THAAD air defense system in Israel. These systems can’t be deployed forever, and all Iran has to do is keep threatening to keep the region on edge. 

The regime enjoys being in this position, feeling that it is a position of power. It also knows that reports say Israel neutralized Iranian air defenses in the October strikes. 

The Qader cruise missile is seen during the annual military parade in Tehran, Iran, September 21, 2024. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

 Iran doesn’t mind these reports because it likely assumed its air defenses could not stop Israel in the first place. Iran knows the limitations of its various systems, such as the S-300 or 3rd Khordad air defense systems.

Iran’s latest claim is that it will “use all material and spiritual facilities to respond” to Israel. This remark came from the new spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, on Monday. His remarks came as the commander of the IRGC slammed Israel and praised Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.The overall gist of the comments from Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that the regime reserves the right to respond to Israel and that it does this in the context of supporting the Palestinians.

In addition, the ministry said that the US is destabilizing the region via the deployment of US troops. This comment apparently refers to US troops in Iraq and Syria, close allies of the Islamic Republic. “Iran responds to any encroachment on national security and territorial integrity in the most severe manner,” the ministry said. This refers to Israel’s strikes indirectly but also shows how Iran likes to speak in general terms more than specifics.

Iran is also backing Iraq in its complaints against Israel in international forums, showing its attempt to diplomatically isolate and condemn Israel while also preparing a possible military response.

Iranian state media said on November 4 that the US is afraid of an Iranian “retaliatory” operation, evidencing that Iran believes it can achieve results via saber-rattling.

Apparently, there are other Iranian moves at hand. An article in the Iranian state media IRNA, has proposed increasing the range of Iran’s missiles, perhaps to target Europe.“The reality is that confronting the recent approaches of the European Union members, which pose a threat to Iran, leaves no choice but to alter the defense doctrine,” the article said.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran does not condone the invasion of other countries, but it firmly believes in maintaining its territorial integrity and will not allow any country to violate this principle. Investigating ways to enhance missile deterrence and improve missile range can be included in the agenda of Iranian officials.”In yet another recent statement, the head of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, discussed how Iran was “equipped” with all the means to strike at Israel.“We warn the number one enemy of the Iranian nation and the rabid dog of that terrorist and criminal Zionist regime [that] the Islamic resistance of the region, by the grace of God and with the help of the courage of the Mujahideen and faithful warriors who have the upper hand in the field of current developments, will give a tooth-breaking response to the evil front,” he said.“And in this way,” he continued, “the resistance front and Islamic Iran will equip themselves with everything necessary to confront and triumphantly overcome the enemy, and in this holy way, they will not be afraid of the threats and killings of the evil people who rule Washington and Tel Aviv.”The overall context of the statements is that Iran is seeking to hold the region hostage via its threats. It likes the attention and enjoys having the ball in its court to attack at a time and place of its choosing. 

Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-827510

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