by Idan Kweller
As of Thursday, recent polls showed Trump with approval below 40% as the Iran stalemate, fuel prices, and inflation narrowed his room to maneuver.
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US President Donald Trump’s decision over how to handle Iran became far more complicated by Thursday, after recent polls showed that the average American doesn't want a return to full-scale war and is primarily concerned with paying less at the pump.
Several polls published in the US in recent days painted a troubling picture for the White House. According to an Economist/YouGov poll, Trump’s approval rating fell to just 34%, its lowest level since he returned to the White House.
At the same time, 62% of Americans disapproved of his performance, while 63% believed the country was headed in the wrong direction. Additional polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, The Washington Post, Fox News, and Reuters also placed Trump’s approval rating below 40%.
The stalemate with Iran also looms in the background, irrespective of the overnight strikes. Trump continues to promise repeatedly that the crisis will end quickly and that energy prices will fall sharply, but the reality has so far proved more complicated. Contacts with Tehran are not leading to an agreement and, according to senior administration officials, are not taking place at all. Iran, meanwhile, is showing no signs of capitulation.
Was Trump frustrated with Netanyahu during their White House meeting?
The unusual briefing held this week by a senior diplomatic official following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington indicated that Jerusalem is also well aware of Trump’s political constraints.
Recent reporting by NBC News appears to reinforce that assessment. According to people familiar with White House discussions, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated because his senior advisers have yet to agree on what the actual objective of the campaign against Iran should be, whether preventing a nuclear breakout, securing the Strait of Hormuz, or dismantling Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities.
According to the official, Trump examined three alternatives with Netanyahu: signing a new agreement with Iran, continuing the economic pressure, or intensifying military action. The official stressed that Trump was considering each option pragmatically, taking into account not only security considerations but also the potential consequences for the US economy and financial markets.
The report also described growing internal frustration within the administration, suggesting the president did not anticipate how difficult it would be to force Iran either to negotiate or to concede. In many respects, that echoes the message conveyed by a senior Israeli diplomatic official after Netanyahu’s visit: Trump is weighing several competing options while trying to balance military objectives against domestic political and economic realities.
Domestic politics shape Trump’s Iran calculations
For Trump, these are not separate considerations. Gas prices, the energy market, and inflation are among the issues that concern American voters far more than uranium enrichment at Fordow or centrifuges concealed inside Pickaxe Mountain.
This is also why Trump has been careful in recent weeks to present himself as someone working to prevent a broader war, even as he continues to threaten Iran with a broader war- yes, that is not a typo; it is all happening at once- and stresses that all options remain on the table.
From Trump’s perspective, success would mean reaching an agreement that could be presented as an American achievement, rather than entering a prolonged conflict that could drive up energy prices and damage the economy.
On the other hand, backing down would also be seen as problematic. As long as Iran continues to stand by its positions, Trump must explain to the public why the crisis is continuing despite his promises that it could be resolved quickly.
In this sense, Trump’s greatest challenge may not be the negotiations with Iran, but his negotiations with the American public. As his approval ratings erode, his room for maneuver in making dramatic decisions on the international stage also shrinks.
For the president, every move regarding Tehran has long been not only a security decision, but also a domestic political one, and it probably does not matter how often he says that the midterm elections are not.
Idan Kweller
Source: https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-904162
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