by MEMRI
In recent days, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the top echelons of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dispatched threatening messages to Saudi Arabia's rulers in response to the hundreds of Iranians killed in the stampede in Mina, Saudi Arabia, which claimed the lives of over a thousand Hajj pilgrims. Khamenei, along with IRGC commanders and ideological camp leaders, were furious at the Saudi royal family, holding it responsible for the disaster and promising a "harsh and decisive" response if Saudi Arabia continued what they called its deliberate anti-Iran conduct. The daily Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei, even claimed that Saudi authorities had intentionally caused the stampede after it was planned by the Israeli Mossad.[1]
In fact, in the past 18 months, Iran has
repeatedly threatened Saudi Arabia and the Al-Sa'ud royal family, as
tensions between the two countries escalated against the backdrop of the
nuclear negotiations, the Saudi policy of lowering oil prices, and the
wars in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Thus, for example, Iran's leadership
threatened to "use all means at its disposal against Saudi Arabia,"
including targeting Saudi oil transports, sparking Shi'ite uprisings in
eastern Saudi Arabia, threatening to set oil wells on fire, and more, in
order to cause the collapse of the Al-Sa'ud regime.[2]
Two Models For Iran's Political And Military Conduct
Two distinct models characterize Tehran's geopolitical and military conduct vis-à-vis its regional and global rivals :
1. The "Paper Tiger" model – mainly vis-à-vis
Saudi Arabia. Faced with the empowered military and political Sunni Arab
bloc, which is stronger than Iran, the Iranian regime backs down,
revealing itself as a paper tiger. This model has come into play on
several occasions, when Iran didn't dare to exercise its power revealing
its threats as hollow: In 2003, when the U.S. besieged Iran from the
south (Iraq) and the east (Afghanistan); in Bahrain in 2011, when a
pro-Iranian Shi'ite coup was thwarted by a show of Saudi-Gulf military
might, and in Yemen during the past year, where Saudi Arabia is heading a
Sunni-anti Iran coalition and is the most active member of this
coalition.
It seems that this time as well, Iran's threats follow this "Paper Tiger" model.
2. The "Intimidating Bully" model–mainly vis-à-vis
the U.S. The latter has been forgiving and sympathetic to the Iranian
regime's demands and to its expansion in the region, in addition to
seeing it as a partner in its strategic interests, such as the fight
against ISIS – despite Iran's international terrorist activity. The U.S.
has even shown willingness to grant Tehran limited nuclear status
despite its violations of Security Council resolutions and IAEA
regulations. Iran has continued its military and political expansion in
the region alongside its ongoing issuing of threats, even against the
U.S. military.[3] It
has become clear that the U.S.'s sympathetic stance has neither
softened nor curbed Iran's offensive activity in the region, but has
only encouraged its hostile policy.
This document will review the current wave of threats by Iran's leadership against Saudi Arabia:
Khamenei's Office Posts Military Threat Video
On October 5, 2015, the official website for the
office of Supreme Leader Khamenei posted a four-minute video showing
Ayatollah Khomeini and then-president Khamenei mourning the death of
Iranian pilgrims killed in a 1987 incident in Mecca. The video later
shows footage of the bodies of Iranians killed in the Mina stampede some
two weeks ago, while Khamenei condemns the lack of cooperation by Saudi
authorities in the efforts to return the bodies to Iran. Khamenei is
then seen flanked by military commanders and warning the Saudis that
ongoing lack of cooperation would trigger a "harsh and decisive"
response by Iran. This is followed by an intimidating display of IRGC
naval capabilities. See the video at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0OKgBgivTc&feature=youtu.be.
Khamenei even said on September 30, 2015, at a
naval graduation ceremony, that Saudi Arabia was being devious and
shirking its duties in the Mina affair, stressing that Iran was free to
act and promising "a decisive response." He said:"Certain people in the
world of Islam, including from Iran, should go [to Saudi Arabia] and
investigate this matter closely and clarify the reasons for the [Mina]
disaster. They [the Saudis] have not fulfilled their duty to the
injured... Even today there are still problems in transferring the
bodies to Iran... but Saudi Arabia is not fulfilling its obligations,
and in some cases it is even deviously acting contrary to them...
"Thus far we have looked the other way, [but] Iran
has greater freedom of action than many others. We have greater
abilities and more tools. They know that if they wish to confront the
Islamic Iran, they cannot match it in any arena. We have [thus far]
maintained the Islamic dignity and brotherly honor of the Islamic ummah.
[But] we can respond, and if we wish to react our responses will be
decisive. Harsh and decisive.
"...There are still tens of thousands of our loved
ones in Mecca carrying out the Hajj rituals. The slightest disrespect
towards them will spark a reaction [from us]. [The Saudis] not
fulfilling their role regarding the bodies of our loved ones will spark a
reaction [on our part]. They should be careful and carry out their
duty... If anyone wishes to harm the rights of the Iranian people and
the Islamic Republic of Iran, we will know how to deal with them. We
will respond firmly. Thank God, [we] have the ability. The Iranian
nation is powerful;this has been proven.We can defend our rights."[4]
IRGC Commander: We Are Prepared To Take Vengeance On Saudi Arabia
IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said at a press
conference at an Iranian naval base on October 3, 2015 that the IRGC was
prepared to take vengeance on Saudi Arabia's royal family at the behest
of Supreme Leader Khamenei:
"The IRGC is preparing all possible tools for a
swift and decisive Iranian response in order to realize the will of the
Leader and cause the Al-Sa'ud [regime] to answer for the disaster in
Mina that killed Iranian pilgrims. [The IRGC] is awaiting orders [from
the Leader].
"If need be, at any time and in any place in the
region, the IRGC is prepared to carry out any decisive and heroic move
to defend the honor of Muslims, especially Iranians, vis-a-vis the evil
ignorant Al-Sa'ud rulers. [The IRGC] will take vengeance on Al-Sa'ud.
"The Islamic world has grown tired of Al-Sa'ud's
betrayals and ignorance, which include the massacre [they carry out] in
Yemen, the displacement of the dear Syrian people, oppressing Bahrainis,
the collective slaughter in Iraq, the creation of sectarian schism, and
support for terrorism. [Saudi Arabia] will dissolve in the rage of
Muslims."[5]
Iranian Ground Forces Commander: Saudi Arabia Is Betraying The Muslims
On October 5, 2015, Iran's ground forces commander
Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, speaking at the funeral of General Saeed Jafari,
who died in the Mina stampede, accused Saudi Arabia of "betrayals and
crimes against Muslims around the world" and its government of
"destroying the innocent Syrian people" and of slaughtering the people
of Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He said:"In response to the
recommendations and orders of the Leader [Khamenei], we are committed
and ready to present the unworthy Saudi rulers with a harsh, decisive,
and crushing message by the Iranian regime, and also show them the
courage and greatness of Iran's soldiers. Not only does Saudi Arabia not
serve the holy sites, it also carries out most of the betrayals and
crimes against Muslims around the world. The Saudi Arabian government's
hands are stained to the elbows with the blood of innocent Yemenis. [In
addition,] it is destroying the innocent Syrian people with its total
support of Jabhat Al-Nusra, and it also supports ISIS, and its hands are
stained with the blood of Iraq's children, women, and men. Saudi Arabia
created the Taliban [as well], and is thus killing the Afghani people.
The overall actions of this [Saudi] regime conforms
to the desires of the Zionists and America. We can already see signs of
deterioration in this unworthy Al-Saud mechanism, and the ground is
already set for the collapse of this regime.[6]
IRGC Navy Commander: Saudis Are Totally Dependent On The Sea... They Are Highly Vulnerable
IRGC Navy Commander Ali Fadavi said on October 4,
2015: "We will look the other way as long as our Islamic duty requires
this, but the time will come when it will be our duty to punish and give
a slap in the face... At a time when we possess sufficient capability
for any response against America's warships, which are considered the
greatest threat, there is certainly no weight to Saudi Arabia's threats,
which are considered the smallest threat.The Saudis are totally
dependent on the sea. All their oil is exported via the Persian Gulf;
more importantly, their oil is in the eastern part [of the country] and
inside the Persian Gulf. America's vulnerability is high, but compared
to the Americans, Saudi Arabia's vulnerability is immeasurable."[7]
IRGC Deputy Commander: The Saudi Regime Is On The Verge Of Collapse
At a "National Might" IRGC conference in Urmia in
Northern Iran on October 4, 2015, IRGC Deputy Commander Hossein Salami
said: "...The regime ruling Saudi Arabia has shown that it intends to
graft the thinking of the jahiliyya [the pre-Islamic period] on
modern means. Lack of planning, lack of responsibility, lack of
management skills, neglect, pride and insensitivity turn the Al-Sa'ud
regime into a weapon of mass destruction that causes Muslims to die as
they are peacefully praying.
"After the Mina incident, the Saudi government
behaved in a manner that was extremely ugly, hate-mongering, illogical,
scattershot and irresponsible, and did not provide any answers. To this
day they have not provided an accurate death toll. The disorganization
prevailing there proves that a clan that treats Muslims savagely and
unmercifully can no longer remain alive. All the recent events are signs
of the impending collapse of [this] political regime, and the
disorganization and disrespect towards the pilgrims indicate that it
does not possess the necessary foundations for continued political
vitality.
"At the same time, this weak, small, impotent
regime intervenes in major affairs and illogically attacks Yemen and its
defenseless people... The [Saudi] regime sends terrorist groups to
Syria and devotes all its efforts to turn Muslims into displaced persons
and humiliate them in the face of Jews and Christians... All these
problems are the products of the Al-Sa'ud [dynasty], meant to spark the
fire of fitna and schism in the Islamic world.
"Al-Sa'ud supports terrorist elements in order to
deny the Iraqi people security and peace... They [the Saudis] do not
emit a whiff of God's mercy, nor does it occupy their minds. This is
also the reason that, when the Zionists attack the Palestinians, this
rotten regime does not utter [a word of] protest.
"The improper Al-Sa'ud policy is the main reason
for the Mina disaster. Ambitious and prideful policy in the world of
Islam renders the Al-Sa'ud [regime] unable to manage a large-scale
Islamic event such as the Hajj. Human imagination cannot grasp the Mina
disaster, and I urge you [Saudis] to seriously heed the warnings of
Leader Khamenei... As the Leader said, if a response does come, you will
regret it."[8]
Endnotes:
[1] Kayhan (Iran), October 4, 2015.
[2] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5918, IRGC
Weekly To Saudis: 'Iran Has Many Options For Harming Saudi Arabia...
All [It] Needs To Do Is Use A Single One Of [Them] So That Nothing
Remains Of The Entity Named The Aal-Saud Regime Or Of Saudi Arabia
Itself', December 31, 2014; Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1144, Tehran Threatens Saudi Arabia; Khamenei: Iran Will Answer Saudi Arabia 'A Blow With A Blow', February 10, 2015; Special Dispatch No. 5858, Associates
Of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei: Saudi Arabia Is The Source Of
Scheming Against The Islamic World; The Al-Saud Family Is Of Jewish
Origin – And Its Turn To Fall Has Come, October 14, 2014; and Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1068, Iran Calls For Violent Shi'ite Reaction Against Saudi Arabia, February 12, 2014.
[3] See MEMRI TV Clip #4838 – Iranian Leader Khamenei: Death to America; Obama Is Trying to Turn Our People against the Regime, March 21, 2015; MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1132, Khamenei
Camp In Indirect Response To Obama Letter, On Anniversary Of U.S.
Embassy Takeover: 'America Is Still The Great Satan And The No. 1 Enemy'
Of Iran, November 16, 2014; and MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5728, Tehran Friday Sermon: The Iranian President Should Punch Obama In The Mouth When He Talks Nonsense, May 2, 2014.
[4] Farsi.khamenei.ir, September 30, 2015.
[5] Sepahnews.ir, October 3, 2015.
[6] Tasnim (Iran), October 5, 2015.
[7] Tasnim (Iran), October 4, 2015.
[8] Defapress.ir, October 4, 2015.
MEMRI
Source: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8792.htm
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
