If the US abandons Israel, will Russia 'fill the bill'?

 

  by  Ted Belman

 

On March 30th DEBKA reported

 

DEBKA file's Washington sources report that the Obama administration is on the threshold of a major rapprochement with Tehran, a reversal of US policy dramatic enough to block out international sanctions. Iran will be allowed to keep its nuclear program, including military elements and enriched uranium stocks, up to the point of actually assembling a weapon.

 

The US president is willing to ditch Israel as a friend. This will be brought home to Jerusalem when he makes his big speech on April 7 appealing for a grand US-Muslim global reconciliation. The US president is preparing to tie a Palestinian-Israeli settlement - on Washington's terms - to such unrelated issues as Afghanistan and Pakistan as the currency for purchasing Muslim and Arab backing for accommodations of these outstanding terrorist fronts.

 

Israel may decide to say "no" to a sovereign Palestine and "no" to giving up the Golan, in which case Obama's entire Muslim outreach crashes. He will have no choice but to go to the mat with Israel. In fact the more he beats up on Israel, the better his relations with Iran will be. He needs Iran to be a partner, not an enemy. He needs Iran to help in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Obama will have to convince Saudi Arabia and Egypt that such a rapproachment is good for them, too. That leaves Israel out in the cold.

It would not be the first time that Israel was abandoned by its patron.

 

During WWI, Britain had need of the Jews and so issued the Balfour Declaration in favour of a Jewish homeland in Palestine. The San Remo conference in 1920 awarded Palestine and TransJordan to Israel. Before the League of Nations formally set up the Palestine Mandate in 1922, Britain, contrary to law, removed TransJordan from the land given to Israel. Thereafter things went from bad to worse.

 

Britain became the enemy of the Jews and friend of the Arabs. After WWII the Jews forced Britain to give up the Mandate resulting in the Partition Plan being passed by the UN.

 

Prior to the end of the Mandate, Ben Gurion started buiding an army and began the search for weapons of all sizes including heavy arms and planes. Britain and the US both imposed an arms embargo. Russia became Ben Gurion's principal supplier. This story is covered in detail in The Pledge by Leonard Slater.

 

Russia also voted for the establishment of Israel and was one of he first countries to recognize her. The US would have voted against Israel's establishment but for the intervention of President Truman.

 

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In 1956, Britain and France had need for Israel's help in reversing the takeover by Nasser of the Suez Canel. They invaded the Sinai together. So Britain was once again Israel's friend. But America under Eisenhower, became the enemy of all three and forced them to retreat from the Sinai. This was Eisenhower's Arab outreach.

 

It was around this time that Russia became estranged from Israel and embraced Egypt, Syria and Iraq instead.

 

France became Israel's patron and chief arms supplier. France also was instrumental in setting up Israel's nuclear plant at Dimona. You will recall that in the '67 war, Israel used France's Mirage jets. The American embargo continued but was soon to change.

 

Shortly after this war, France withdrew its support from Israel. The US became Israel's supplier and patron with the intent of dislodging Russia from the ME. The US befriended the Arabs by restraining Israel in both the '67 War and the '73 war. This policy enabled the US to replace Russia as Egypt's patron. As a reault of the Iraq War, the US also ousted Russia from Iraq.

 

Meanwhile the US had been ousted from Iran and Russia/USSR over time filled the gap.

Now Obama is working to replace Russia in both Syria and Iran. To do this she must throw Israel under the bus.

 

Thus it becomes in Russia's interest to strengthen Israel to resist being sacrificed to the detriment of Russia. Russia does not want to lose its influence in Iran and Syria.

 

As they say, "what comes around, goes around".

 

During the cold war, the US was Pakistan's patron and USSR/Russia had a close relationship with India. Since the fall of the USSR, both Russia and India have moved closer to Israel.

Russia needs to strengthen this relationship especially while the US has to nurture Pakistan at the expense of its relationship with India.

Russia has no need for Muslim oil. But it could use Israeli technology and so could India. Israel will need a patron to exercise her veto in the Security Council. She will also need markets to replace the loss of the EU as its principal trading partner.

 

As a case in point, Israel rushes to India's defense

 

NEW DELHI - Israel emerged as India's number one defense partner last week when it was revealed that New Delhi had signed a US$1.4 billion deal with the country to purchase a 70 kilometer shore-based and sea borne anti-missile air defense system.

 

This is among the bigger defense deals between the two countries and the biggest military joint venture by India with a foreign country, overtaking the India-Russia BrahMos cruise missile project.

 

A senior defense official said the total value of the deal was over $2 billion, with one portion valued at $600 million being hived off to the state-controlled Defense Research and Development Organization.

 

This makes Israel India's biggest defense supplier, clocking over a billion dollars in new contracts in 2007 and 2008 to overtake Russia.

 

"We have a very special defense relationship with India," Israeli Major General Udi Shani, director of the Defense Ministry's Sibat export agency, was quoted as saying recently.

 

Twenty percent of Israel's population came from Russia, or their parents did, and speak Russian. And Israel's Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is a native of Russia, and speaks her language literally and figuratively.

 

The US surely doesn't want Russia to have access to Israeli millitary technology and will be reluctant to push Israel so far as to cause a rupture of their relationship.

 

Let the games begin.

 

 

Ted Belman

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.