by Seth J. Frantzman
So far, Hezbollah appears to believe that this kind of conflict, in which it dictates the tempo, time, and place of attack, is in its interest.
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Hezbollah continues to carry out attacks on Israel, even as it takes losses. This illustrates how the Iranian-backed terrorist group is undeterred. Hezbollah’s losses are mounting, but it is attempting to show that despite this, it is ready to escalate.
On Sunday, Hezbollah put this plan into action, moving thousands of rockets aimed at Israel into place. The IDF carried out strikes on numerous locations using 100 aircraft and destroyed thousands of launchers.
Hezbollah has now lost more than 420 of its fighters since October 2023. It has had many of its terror sites, such as observation posts, targeted. The question is whether Hezbollah can replace these losses. Up until now, the terrorist group appears to be indicating that it can replace its losses and that it is not deterred. In fact, Hezbollah continues to claim that its attacks are successful.
From Hezbollah’s point of view and that of the larger Iranian-backed multifront war on Israel, the organization’s ongoing offenses are a success story because Hezbollah has fought much of the war inside Israel’s territory. As a result of its attacks, Israel has had to evacuate 60,000 people, with some 14,000 students now starting their school year away from home, meaning that they will likely be gone for up to two more years.
Communities in northern Israel are damaged and devastated. People fear returning to the city of Kiryat Shmona. Hezbollah likely sees this as a success.
Hezbollah has less to lose than Israel
This war is being managed and fought in a proportional manner. However, Hezbollah has less to lose than Israel. Hezbollah, so far, has not faced political repercussions at home for its actions. People have had to flee Southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah doesn’t seem to lose out due to this new reality. It has political opponents in Lebanon. However, it is willing to risk part of the country to achieve success.
From Iran’s point of view, this is a win. Iran can cause damage to northern Israel, and although there is destruction in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran itself remains intact.
Also, Iran gets to use its proxies such as those in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to target Israel. If Israel responds, this does not appear to harm Iran’s overall posture in the region.
In addition, the countries that Iran exploits in the region are generally poor, so the proxies have less to lose if they plunge into war. Yemen, for instance, has already been at war for many years. The Houthis do not care if Yemen is harmed. As for Lebanon, it is already almost bankrupt. Iraq and Syria have been devastated by conflicts over the last decade as well.
This is where Iran seeks to redraw the “equation” in the region. Iran knows that Israel was seeking to wage a “campaign between the wars” atwixt 2014 and 2023. This entailed Israel trying to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria. However, Iran was able to entrench there anyway and move weapons to Hezbollah. This organization also increased its stockpile of precision-guided munitions and drones. Now Hezbollah may have taken some losses in its rocket stockpile. However, it appears to have many tunnels and underground bunkers where it can hide its most sophisticated capabilities.
Now, Hezbollah must weigh its next steps. Is it willing to make the type of conflict that unfolded in the early hours of Sunday morning a new normal? Will it continue to a second “phase” of operations, as it has threatened to do against Israel? Or is it happy to have tested Israel and increased the heat a bit, and now it will turn the heat back down and continue to attack northern Israel?
Hezbollah understood that the equation of attacks now meant that as long as it only struck within a few miles of the border, this would not lead to a major escalation. What this means is that it could launch several rockets and drones a day and the consequences will be proportional. This managed conflict is not likely in Israel’s long-term interests. Is it in Hezbollah’s long-term interest? This is the key question for Hezbollah.
So far, Hezbollah appears to believe that this kind of conflict, where it dictates the tempo, time, and place of the attack, is in Hezbollah’s interest. It is not deterred because it has generally only faced Israeli reactions. Even the attack yesterday was primarily about Israel preempting an attack, rather than rewriting the rules.
The question in Israel will be whether Hezbollah can be deterred and when that might happen. As the war in Gaza continues, there is a sense that over the last seven months, Israel has wanted to shift focus to the North. However, the war in Gaza continues to require focus because Hamas continues its attacks.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-816283
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