by Col. (res.) Ronen Itsik
The question we must ask is whether the quiet in the south actually serves us. Maybe now is the time to do something completely unexpected and pummel Hamas and the other hostile elements around us.
The ongoing chain of security-related events in recent months, specifically within the context of the strategic shift in the United States and the political instability in Israel, should come as no surprise. In the current reality, all the "players" on the geo-strategic playing field are jockeying for the best possible position ahead of the next stage, which could either be a military conflagration, or some sort of accord.
The political conflict in Israel between Netanyahu and Sa'ar, or between Lapid and Netanyahu, believe it or not, is minor in the global context. The world is mired in the throes of upheaval and instability. Some of the difficulty stems from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which is rattling regimes and fostering volatility in many places across the globe. The administration change in America, however, which has included a sharp strategic shift, has reverberated worldwide while the Middle East, of course, has been thrown particularly off-kilter.
The Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border, for example, which is simply a "flex" by Putin to embarrass the Biden administration and test its mettle – aptly illustrates that we are just secondary players in this game. Still, when it comes to Israel, the reality is a bit more nuanced. The shift of power from Trump, who was unprecedentedly supportive of Israel, to the Biden administration, which has naturally turned a cold shoulder to Israel, has been felt even more acutely these days. America wants to leave the Middle East and to this end is trying to stabilize the conflict with Iran by making a deal –the results be damned. What does Israel have to say on this matter? It seems Biden doesn't really care. I would expect an American president to meet with the Israeli prime minister and formulate a general course of action vis-à-vis the Iranians – but this isn't happening and we can all guess why.
America and Iran will reach an agreement. Iran will continue to consolidate its hegemony in the Middle East and we will have to continue dealing with it. There are consequences to this. The Iranian plot includes a gun and a trigger; partly aimed at Lebanon, partly at Syria and partly at Gaza. Syria, for the time being, is out of the game in terms of sovereign action against us, largely due to Putin's desire to preserve stability, but the signals Israel is sending on several fronts reveal exactly what the Iranians want. One signal pertains to the activities attributed to Israel against Iranian vessels at sea; a second signal is the attacks attributed to Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities; and a third signal is to America, regarding preconditions for a nuclear deal.
Tensions are percolating on all fronts right now, particularly on the Gaza front. We've had a lot of peace and quiet in this sector these past two years – some of it due to the pandemic and some because of negotiated understandings, but the status quo in the south has held relatively firm. Hamas, however, is not resting on its laurels amid this relative tranquillity, certainly not when Israel's political system is crippled, when Arab Israelis could possibly become part of a political coalition for the first time, and certainly not when Mahmoud Abbas has canceled the parliamentary elections that Hamas was expected to win – here Hamas has found an opportunity to send Israel a signal.
We saw this signal in recent days as the terrorist organization made sure to restrict the range of the rocket fire, didn't intensify the attacks, and the recent skirmish has thus far been limited in scope and hasn't claimed any lives. Much of this is due to Israel's restraint, which perhaps allowed it to dodge a "strategic ambush" to drag us into an escalation under suboptimal conditions from Israel's perspective in light of the aforementioned factors. When you are mired in political infighting and your most important ally appears indifferent at best to Shiite hegemony – you are handcuffed. Hence the tactic derived by Israel.
Israel does not want an escalation. This is not a default position – the current reality is being dictated by developments as they unfold on the ground. The world is at a significant crossroads, the government in Israel is at a significant crossroads, and a military escalation could trump everyone's cards. For now, as stated, all sides prefer quiet; as does Hamas, apparently. Maybe the recent rocket fire was a sign of things to come; maybe it was just a provocation, perhaps it was an attempt to forge a link to the Arab street, specifically in Jerusalem. In any case, Hamas isn't going any further.
Meanwhile, the question we must ask is whether this quiet actually serves us. Maybe now is the time to do something completely unexpected and pummel Hamas and the other hostile elements around us. Israel is looking at the pandemic in its rearview mirror, our starting position is far better, the IDF is ready; conceivably this is the right time to act against all those plotting against us, including Iran.
Israel does not run the world, but Israel is most definitely a factor, and as a people who love life we are at a point where the initiative must be ours. Is it time to remove some of the threats we face from the field of play? Perhaps it's counterintuitive due to all the unrest and instability around us, but maybe this is the best time to deliver another punch or push and destroy what has threatened us here for more than two decades now.
Col. (res.) Ronen Itsik
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-idf-is-ready-now-is-the-time-to-seize-the-initiative/
No comments:
Post a Comment