by Jerry Dunleavy
Denmark's politicians are downplaying Trump's claims of Russian and Chinese threats to Greenland. But Danish intelligence warned about Russia and China in stark terms.
While Denmark’s leaders downplay the threat to Greenland posed by Russia and China amidst President Donald Trump’s outspoken desire to acquire the frozen island, Denmark's Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) recently released an assessment bluntly warning of Russian and Chinese military ambitions toward and expansion around Greenland and the Arctic.
Trump said last week that the U.S. needs Greenland “from the standpoint of national security” as he argued that the frozen autonomous territory owned by Denmark was “covered” with Russian and Chinese ships. Top Danish foreign policy and defense officials quickly sought to push back on Trump’s claims, claiming there are not Russian and Chinese ships near Greenland and going so far as to say that it is “delusional” to think Russia and China pose a threat to the massive frozen island.
Chinese propaganda outlets and its foreign ministry echoed the Danish denials and claimed the U.S. was acting out of a sense of self-interest, not based on security concerns.
But the "Intelligence Outlook 2025" report on the security of the Kingdom of Denmark, released just last month, had warned at great length that “China is preparing for a military presence in the Arctic” and that “China’s long-term Arctic interests include Greenland.” The report highlighted Chinese air-based, seaborne, and submersible activities in the Arctic.
The Danish intelligence report had further assessed that the militaries of China and Russia were collaborating more closely in the Arctic, displaying the growing “DragonBear” alliance between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The report noted that Russia “uses every available tool to monitor and chart the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the United Kingdom” as “part of the preparations for a potential confrontation with NATO” and as the Kremlin deploys submarines, ships, and planes near Greenland.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s annual threat assessment in 2025 also detailed Russian and Chinese ambitions in the Arctic, specifically stating that both U.S. foes had specific strategic interests in Greenland. The Pentagon’s Arctic Strategy — penned in 2024 during the Biden Administration — also warned about growing Russian and Chinese military cooperation in the Arctic.
The Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C. did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Danish politicians — and China’s foreign ministry — push back on Trump’s concerns
“We need Greenland from a national security situation. It’s so strategic,” Trump said on Air Force One last week. “Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.”
Trump added over the weekend, “If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will take Greenland — and I’m not letting that happen. … One way or the other we will have Greenland.” The president said on Sunday that “you have Russian destroyers and submarines, and Chinese destroyers and submarines all over the place” near Greenland.
This has prompted a flurry of pushback from Danish politicians who downplayed the threat posed by Russia and China, with the Chinese government and its propaganda arms directly echoing some of the denials by the Danes.
“I am head of the defence committee in Denmark. It is my job to be on top of security in Greenland and I get all relevant information about it,” Rasmus Jarlov, the Chair of Denmark’s Parliamentary Defense Committee, said on X over the weekend. “I can assure you that your fantasies about a big threat from China and Russia against Greenland are delusional. You are the threat. Not them.”
The Financial Times also reported over the weekend that “Nordic diplomats rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims of Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Greenland, which he has invoked to justify his desire to seize the vast Arctic island from Denmark” and that “two top Nordic diplomats with access to NATO intelligence briefings said there were no signs of Russian and Chinese ships or submarines in recent years around Greenland.”
“It is simply not true that the Chinese and Russians are there. I have seen the intelligence. There are no ships, no submarines,” one senior diplomat reportedly told the outlet.
“This idea that the waters around Greenland are crawling with Russian and Chinese ships or submarines is just not true,” another Nordic diplomat reportedly said. “They are in the Arctic, yes, but on the Russian side.”
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen last week also told the press that “the image that's being painted of Russian and Chinese ships right inside the Nuuk fjord and massive Chinese investments being made is not correct.”
“We do not share this image that Greenland is plastered with Chinese investments … nor that there are Chinese warships up and down along Greenland,” Rasmussen also said.
The CCP-run Global Times repeated these Danish denials last week with an article titled “Denmark’s FM rejects U.S. claims about Greenland ‘covered’ with Chinese ships; Washington cannot cover up hegemonic behavior: expert.”
China to Trump: "Stop using so-called China threat"
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian was also asked about Trump’s comments last week, arguing that “we urge the U.S. to stop using the so-called ‘China threat’ as a pretext for itself to seek selfish gains.”
But the Danish intelligence report painted a much more complicated picture than the denials from Danish politicians would suggest, laying out Chinese and Russian military objectives in the Arctic and interest in the Greenland region in particular as well. The report also found that the Russians viewed the ocean to the east of Greenland as key in any future war with NATO, and that China was eyeing Greenland for long-term strategic purposes as well.
“For Russia, the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the United Kingdom – the so-called GIUK Gap – form the main maritime gateway to and from the Arctic. Thus, the GIUK Gap is vital for Russia in the event of an armed conflict with NATO,” the report assessed. “In such a conflict, Russia would seek to disrupt the supply lines between the United States and Europe by deploying attack submarines capable of transiting the GIUK Gap undetected. At the same time, Russia would seek to monitor and track any NATO submarine movements within the gap.”
The report made it clear that Russia was deploying assets by air and sea close to Greenland’s coast, noting that “despite the considerable geographical distance, Russia periodically deploys submarines, surface vessels, and aircraft near both Greenland and the Faroe Islands, as well as throughout the waters between them” and that Moscow also uses civilian vessels sailing near Greenland “to carry out tasks such as surveillance on behalf of the Russian state.”
“Although Chinese companies have shown interest in investing in Greenland, this has so far not produced tangible results,” the Danish report added. “Nevertheless, China’s long-term Arctic interests include Greenland, and it is expected to continue pursuing cooperation with Greenland, particularly in research but also in commercial ventures.”
The intelligence assessment noted that “for the United States, the Arctic represents the first and most crucial line of early warning in the event of a great-power conflict with Russia or China.” The report pointed to the radar systems at the U.S.-run Pituffik Space Base in northern Greenland, which “play a central role in detecting hostile missiles heading towards the U.S. mainland.”
Danish intel maps detail Russian and Chinese moves in Arctic and near Greenland
Maps included in the spy assessment also included visual illustrations of why Greenland is considered such a strategic location and how Russia and China are operating militarily in the region.
The Danish intelligence report described the North Atlantic as “A Gateway to the Arctic” and stated that “Russia uses every available tool to monitor and chart the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the United Kingdom.” The report assessed that “this surveillance is part of the preparations for a potential confrontation with NATO.”
The report also laid out “Possible Paths for Long-Range Missiles in the Event of War” and made it clear that “the shortest path between North America and Russia is over the North Pole” and said “the map shows possible paths for missiles launched by Russia against the United States.”
The missile launch paths laid out by Danish intelligence included crossing through Alaska, Canada, the broader Arctic, and Greenland.
The intelligence assessment also stated that “China Seeks the Capability to Operate Submarines in the Arctic” in part because “the Arctic provides an ideal location for launching nuclear missiles against targets across the northern hemisphere, as short flight times make them harder to defend against” and because “the region also offers the advantage that submarines can easily hide beneath the Arctic ice cap.”
The report said that operating such subs under the Arctic ice cap was a capacity desired by both the U.S. and Russia, and that “China is determined to acquire this capability too,” which explains China’s “growing interest” in developing this capacity in the Arctic.
Relatedly, the intelligence assessment made it clear that “China is Preparing for a Military Presence in the Arctic” as it stressed that “Chinese icebreakers and research vessels operate in the Arctic and have conducted joint patrol exercises with Russia in the region” and that “China aims to develop the capacity for independent military operations in the Arctic.”
The map included the “most frequently used sea route north of Russia” which included a path through the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska, the northern coast of Russia, and a path cutting between the Nordic States and Greenland.
This map also detailed joint patrol flights carried out by Russia and China north of the Bering Strait in 2024, Russian and Chinese coast guard vessels jointly patrolling the Arctic ocean the same year, and Chinese research vessels conducting Arctic expeditions in 2025, which demonstrated “China’s ambition to operate both surface ships and submarines in Arctic waters.”
The Danes detail DragonBear cooperation in the Arctic
The Danish spy assessment noted that “Russia and China deepen Arctic cooperation — with a potential military dimension” to the partnership in the frigid region. Putin and Xi declared a “no limits” partnership in early 2022, just ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a war in which China has offered key assistance to the Russians in the subsequent years. The spy report said the partnership extends to the Arctic.
“Russia continues its military build-up, and China continues to develop its capacity to operate both submarines and surface vessels in the region. Russia remains the strongest military power in the Arctic but sees itself as being challenged by the West. As a result, Russia will increasingly assert its interests through a more confrontational approach, both politically and militarily,” the report said. “Russia is under pressure from, among other things, Western sanctions and will therefore seek to deepen its Arctic cooperation with China and allow China greater access to the Russian Arctic.”
The report added: “China will also seek to tap into Russian expertise and experience in the Arctic as a military theatre. Russia retains a technological and operational edge, particularly in operating attack submarines under the ice and building nuclear-powered icebreakers. The two countries may conduct joint exercises in the Russian Arctic in 2026. For both countries, joint exercises both inside and outside the Arctic would also serve as strategic signaling to the United States and the West.”
China seeks parity with Russia and U.S. sub-launched missile capabilities
The intelligence report highlighted Russian and Chinese intentions for the Arctic region — including securing prime submarine locations to launch their nuclear weapons at the U.S. in the event of war.
The report added that “China’s military ambitions in the Arctic are closely tied to its strategic rivalry with the United States” and that “while China currently has no military presence in the Arctic, it aims to develop an independent capability to operate both surface ships and submarines in Arctic waters within five to ten years. China’s long-term goal is to deploy missile submarines beneath the ice, thereby attaining the same nuclear second-strike capability as Russia and the United States.”
The spy assessment also said Russian and Chinese ambitions in the icy region were linked to economics as well as security.
“Russia has ambitious military and civilian plans for its entire Arctic territory,” the report said. Its rearmament plans are aimed at maintaining regional military superiority, with particular emphasis on controlling access routes to the Russian Arctic. … Russia is already imposing restrictions on navigation in certain waters north of Russia beyond what international maritime law permits, and these restrictions may be further tightened.”
The report said that Russia also “seeks to exploit the vast natural resources within its Arctic territory.”
“China also has long-term economic interests in the Arctic, seeking access to both sea routes and natural resources,” the assessment added. “Unrestricted access to Arctic shipping lanes is intended to reduce China’s reliance on routes such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, which, if blocked during a crisis, could have a significant impact on the Chinese economy. Access to Arctic natural resources would also allow China to import energy and minerals from multiple sources across the world.”
U.S. assessments also warn of Russian and Chinese threats in Arctic and near Greenland
The ODNI assessed in 2025 that Russia and China are cooperating more closely in the Arctic, and that both foreign adversaries of the U.S. have strategic interests in and around Greenland.
The Defense Department’s Arctic Strategy, published in the final year of the Biden Administration, also warned that “PRC and Russian activities in the Arctic — including their growing cooperation — the enlargement of NATO, and the increasing effects of climate change herald a new, more dynamic Arctic security environment” and that “these changes, as well as the growing cooperation between Russia and the PRC, have the potential to alter the Arctic’s stability and threat picture.”
The Biden-era Pentagon report added that “the PRC and Russia are collaborating in the Arctic across multiple instruments of national power” and that “their growing alignment in the region is of concern.”
The Biden Pentagon also said the U.S. military’s Joint Force, along with U.S. allies, “will continue to conduct routine operations in the region” including “continuing airborne and maritime patrols with Allies across the Arctic region to include areas such as the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap.”
Trump continues push for Greenland
Trump said Sunday on Air Force One that Greenland should make a deal with the U.S. as he criticized Denmark’s ability to protest the autonomous frozen island.
“Greenland should make the deal because Greenland does not want to see Russia or China take over,” Trump said. “Basically, their defense is two dog sleds. You know that? You know what their defense is? Two dog sleds.”
The leaders of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom earlier this month released a joint statement arguing that “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”
The five major political parties in Greenland released their own joint statement on Friday stating that “as Greenlandic party leaders, we would like to emphasize once again our desire for the US's disdain for our country to end.”
“We do not want to be Americans, we do not want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders,” the parties said.
The foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark plan to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday.
Jerry Dunleavy
Source: https://justthenews.com/government/security/danish-intel-warned-about-russian-and-chinese-military-ambitions-toward
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