by Fred Fleitz
Iran’s regime may endure for now, but its terror has shattered its legitimacy; with decisive U.S. support, this uprising can hasten the end and prepare a democratic future.
As I write this article, the situation in Iran is unclear. Although Iran’s brutal regime is unlikely to fall in the near term, I believe the country will never be the same, and the end of this regime is in sight. There are steps the U.S. should take to accelerate the Iranian regime’s demise and prepare for a new democratic government.
Thousands of peaceful demonstrators, perhaps tens of thousands, have been killed by the Iranian regime over the last two weeks. President Trump said on Wednesday that the Iranian government claimed there will be no further shootings and executions of demonstrators. It does appear that mass demonstrations have subsided, but only because Iranian security forces are shooting even small numbers of Iranians who gather on the street. I also note that although the Iranian Foreign Minister told a U.S. reporter on Wednesday that there would be no executions on Wednesday or Thursday, he was not sure about Friday.
Because the Khamenei regime rules through terror, there will certainly be mass executions of demonstrators.
I am sure President Trump knew Iranian officials were lying about halting violence against protesters and executions. Trump likely mentioned their assertions about this to give the regime a last chance to de-escalate as the U.S. moves military assets into the region.
It appears that Iran’s leaders were worried about the real meaning of President Trump’s words, which is why they closed Iranian airspace after he spoke, apparently in the belief that a U.S. surprise attack was imminent. I don’t know whether Trump’s comments actually were a ruse, but they did succeed in forcing Iran’s leaders to implement and reveal the defensive protocols they would take in the event of another U.S. or Israeli attack. This may have included air defense measures, emergency communications, protected locations for senior officials, and other measures.
The bravery of the huge numbers of Iranians who took to the streets over the last three weeks to demand the end of Iran’s corrupt and fanatic regime cannot be overstated. These demonstrators knew the regime executed as many as 2,000 in 2025, possibly a record number of killings by the government. They knew that five prior uprisings had been violently crushed. These Iranians who protested for their freedom were well aware that by joining mass demonstrations against the government, they were risking death.
Large numbers of Iranians took this risk because they are desperate for new leadership and political change. Iran’s currency has plummeted, and the country is plagued by hyperinflation. There is a severe water shortage. The people are fed up with political repression and corruption. They know that their economy collapsed because the government wasted billions of dollars on nuclear weapons and missile programs and proxy wars against Israel and the United States.
Iran’s people also know that their leadership was humiliated last June when Israel and the United States conducted massive air strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile sites that the Iranian military was powerless to prevent or stop.
Probably due to Iran’s dire economy, the recent protests are different. They have been much larger and spread faster and to more cities than five other mass protests since 2009.
The government’s response has also been different and more brutal. Security officers fired machine guns at crowds. An unprecedented number of peaceful demonstrators were killed. Body bags are piling up. Hospitals are overwhelmed with dead and injured patients and are running out of blood. There is a German media report of “savage brutality” at an Iranian hospital where Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces beat patients and medical staff with batons and used shotguns and tear gas in the hospital.
As a result, I believe the recent protests and the government’s extreme efforts to crush them will lead to fundamental and irreversible changes in Iran.
The Iranian people had already hated and rejected Iran’s leaders when they began their peaceful protests in late December. They will never forgive the government for the violence it used to crush these protests. As a result, this will likely lead to an insurgency against the government. The people know they cannot peacefully oppose this regime. Given the level of hatred of the Iranian leadership for ordering the murder of civilian demonstrators, no Iranian government official will be safe in the country.
This may be why there have been reports that Iranian regime officials and elites have been transferring significant amounts of money out of the country due to the protests. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. recently has seen “millions, tens of millions of dollars being secretly withdrawn” from Iran. Iranian leaders and elites believe the end is coming for the Khamenei regime.
However, I agree with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich that the Iranian regime is not about to fall and is struggling to survive. There are no signs of the powerful IRGC or the military breaking with the regime. There have been no reports of schisms in Iran’s leadership. I also agree with Gingrich that the Iranian people cannot overthrow the regime without outside help.
Although the struggle to oust this regime may be long and bloody, there are many ways the U.S. and its allies can support the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom.
A first and important step was when President Trump expressed his public support for the protesters and stated that the regime would pay a high price if it used violence against them. Although some world leaders made similar statements, notably German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, global condemnations of the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown have been weak. The U.S. should press our friends and allies to speak out strongly against the Iranian government and punish it by expelling Iranian diplomats from their countries and sanctioning Iran. Iranian leaders and elites should be denied visas to travel abroad and prevented from sending their money out of the country.
There should be cyber warfare against the Iranian government, especially to interfere with communications, and use violence against the Iranian people by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and other security forces. The U.S. should work to counter the government’s efforts to shut down the Internet and other electronic communications. Elon Musk did the Iranian people a great service when he recently made his Starlink satellite internet service available to them for free. More must be done to boost protester communications so they can organize and keep the world informed about the situation in the country.
The U.S. should also step up Voice of America-Persian and Radio Liberty broadcasts to Iran. There should be 24/7 broadcasts featuring messages of support from President Trump to the Iranian people. Although the Iranian government will attempt to jam these broadcasts, many Iranians will be able to access them through the Starlink system.
America and its allies should offer cash incentives to Iranian political and military leaders who defect or refuse orders to use violence against demonstrators. They should also state that any Iranian official involved in the use of violence against peaceful demonstrators will be barred from travel to the West, their children will not be allowed to attend Western universities, and they will be tried as war criminals after the regime falls.
I believe that President Trump is considering military action against the Iranian regime, possibly very soon. This might include airstrikes against the facilities of the IRGC and other military units that have used violence against demonstrators. Missiles that the regime might use to distract from the current unrest by attacking Israel or U.S. bases should be destroyed. Weapons depots and factories should also be targeted.
The U.S. also should intercept “ghost fleet” ships transporting Iranian oil and small arms into Iran to use against demonstrators.
Finally, the U.S. and its allies should support Iran’s long-repressed ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds, Baluchis, and Turkmen, by providing support to their fellow members and leaders in the border regions of neighboring countries.
The Trump administration should also be planning for a post-Khamenei regime. This means engaging in dialogue with the Iranian diaspora on the transition to a democratic government and accountability for Iranian officials, soldiers, and security officers involved in violence and atrocities. The successor to the current regime is impossible to predict, and the U.S. and its allies should be prepared to stop a military junta from seizing power if Khamenei is ousted. There should also be an immediate effort to reconcile outside rival groups on how to bring about a new democratic government in Iran.
This is a critical time for the long-oppressed people of Iran. It is an opportunity to put an end to a state-sponsored terrorism government that has been killing its own people and engaged in a proxy war with the United States and Israel for decades. With the Iranian regime at its weakest point ever, the U.S. and its allies must do everything possible to stand with the Iranian people and hasten the regime’s coming and inevitable demise.
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Fred Fleitz previously served as National Security Council chief of staff, a CIA analyst, and a House Intelligence Committee staff member. He is the Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security.
Source: https://amgreatness.com/2026/01/16/irreversible-changes-to-iran-caused-by-the-recent-protests-and-u-s-interests/
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