by Steven Richards
A disruption to global oil supplies could cause prices to rise at a time when President Donald Trump has turned his focus to affordability on the home front.
The Gulf Arab states warned the Trump administration that a strike on Iran in retaliation for the crackdown on protests could spark a regional conflict and disrupt oil supplies, putting U.S. bases in danger or creating economic troubles for the United States, Just the News has learned.
A disruption to global oil supplies could cause prices to rise at a time when President Donald Trump has turned his focus to affordability on the home front ahead of the midterm elections later this year.
Amid sustained protests that rocked many major cities over the last two weeks, Iranian authorities resorted to violent crackdowns on protesters to maintain control. President Donald Trump vowed to intervene if the regime doesn’t stop the killing of protesters. To that end, on Monday, he canceled any further meetings with Iranian officials unless the killings stopped.
In subsequent days, there were signs that the U.S. was preparing military action against Iran. However, by Wednesday, President Trump said he was told that the killings of protesters had in fact stopped, and the regime had no current plans to execute any prisoners. Estimates of the death toll stemming from the recent protests vary widely, but human rights groups say that anywhere from 2,500 to 3,400 people have been killed by security forces of the Islamic theocracy.
Internet access still blocked, information is scarce
Though the president has ordered additional military assets to the region, it remains unclear whether the administration will follow through with action against Iran. Since Tehran is still blocking internet access, it is also difficult to determine whether protests there are still ongoing.
Israel, which has also urged the U.S. to refrain from attacking Iran, reportedly assessed that the rate of killing of protesters has declined since the beginning of the regime crackdown.
The existence of the discussions between the United States and senior officials of the Gulf Arab states was reported earlier this week, first by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
A source who was briefed on the talks between the Arab states and President Donald Trump told Just the News that these warnings against strikes were not delivered out of any particular support for Iran, but rather geared towards conveying the dangers of an “intractable conflict” in the Middle East that would have impacts, both on security and the economy.
Specifically, the Gulf monarchies shared concerns with the Trump administration that a strike on Iran during a time of significant domestic unrest could spark a wider retaliation by the Islamic Republic that could endanger U.S. troops and close off the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies traverse.
Escalation could mean a rise in world's oil prices
Iran’s ability to threaten the narrow waterway, potentially choking off completely seaborne commerce through the strait, has for years been a concern amid tensions between Iran and its neighbors as well as the United States.
In a scenario of significant escalation, analysts say that global oil prices could rise by double digits. “The fear of a closure will cause the price of oil to rise a few dollars per barrel, but it is the complete closure of the Strait that can result in a $10 to $20 per barrel spike,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC this week.
This effect, however, would be reduced if the disruption to trade is only temporary, or if the presence of U.S. naval assets would prevent Iran from fully closing off the strait.
Yet, a potential shock to oil markets is likely to remain a potent concern for the Trump administration, which has recently focused on pivoting to an affordability message ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A large part of that effort involves keeping gas prices down. Over the holidays, the president touted decreased gas prices, which had fallen to between $2 and $3 per gallon. Earlier this week, the White House posted a video to TikTok celebrating lower gas prices across America set to Daddy Yankee’s 2004 Latin dance hit “Gasolina.”
Beyond the threat of an oil supply shock, the Arab states raised concerns that a U.S. strike while the Iranian regime is vulnerable risks a wider regional conflict that could suck in unwilling neighbors, especially if Iran decides to retaliate by attacking U.S. bases.
Israel urges caution
Many of Iran’s Gulf neighbors, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, host U.S. forces. For example, Qatar is home to the sprawling Al Udeid Air Base that hosts the forward operating base of the U.S. Central Command. In June, following President Trump’s strikes on the Iranian nuclear program, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Al Udeid, where about 10,000 U.S. troops are stationed. There were no casualties from the incident.
At this time, however, the U.S. currently does not have an aircraft carrier and strike group present in the region after many naval assets were diverted to the Caribbean earlier this year for the operation targeting Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro. Carriers bring fighter-bombers and their destroyer escorts boast the Aegis combat systems, both useful for intercepting enemy missiles.
Without those resources, the military may be hard-pressed to protect its bases in the region in the event of an attack by Iran following any U.S. strikes, even with the help of its Arab partners.
Earlier this week, President Trump ordered the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln and its destroyers to deploy to the Middle East from the South China Sea, but the journey will take about one week.
It is not just the Arab Gulf states that have urged the president to consider caution. Israel, a close ally who fought a brief 12-day war with Iran earlier this year, also reportedly asked President Trump to refrain from ordering an attack, the New York Times reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly asked President Trump to wait for any strikes to give Israel time to prepare its defenses.
The source, who declined to be named, was briefed on discussions between the Gulf Arab states and Trump told Just the News that Israel shared similar concerns about being dragged into a regional conflict if Iran were to retaliate against U.S. strikes.
At least 800 executions of protesters purportedly canceled
Following Israel’s strikes on Iranian missile sites and air defenses this June, Iran retaliated with a barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones. Some of those penetrated Israel’s air defenses and struck military bases and civilian targets.
On Friday, President Trump appeared to back off his threat to strike Iran by thanking the regime for canceling “over 800” hangings of those arrested for protesting. However, a day earlier, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz said that “all options” remain “on the table” if Iran continues to kill protesters.
Earlier this week, Just the News reported that the Trump administration has several options to punish Iran short of direct military action. These could include offensive cyber operations, working to enable internet communications in the country, and seizing sanctioned oil tankers to put the squeeze on the regime's already-troubled finances.
Steven Richards
Source: https://justthenews.com/government/diplomacy/gulf-arab-states-warn-against-us-strikes-iran-cite-potential-regional-conflict
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