by Y. Graff
This debate largely reflects Iraq's sectarian division between Shi'ites, who view Russia as an ally along with Iran, and Sunnis, who treat it with great suspicion.
Introduction
In late September 2015, prior to
his departure for New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Iraqi Prime
Minister Haider Al-'Abadi announced the establishment of a joint intelligence
center in Baghdad for Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Russia. The intelligence center,
he said, would focus on collecting intelligence on the Islamic State (ISIS) so
as to assist the Iraqi army in combating it, and would be staffed by military
and intelligence personnel from these four countries.
The intelligence
center began work in early October, with the arrival in Baghdad of its
personnel, and on October 14, Iraqi parliamentary National Security and Defense
Committee chairman Hakem Al-Zameli said that the Iraqi army had launched its
first strike on ISIS targets based on the center's intelligence operations.[1]
In addition to
the establishment of the joint intelligence center, there have been recent
reports on increased Iraq-Russia cooperation, and that Russia could strike ISIS
targets in Iraq, as it is doing in Syria at this time. The Iraqi government has
to date denied asking Russia for such help.
Russian
involvement in Iraq, which since 2003 had been accustomed to significant U.S. activity
on its soil, is a new development, and it has sparked public debate in the
country. This debate largely reflects Iraq's sectarian division between
Shi'ites, who view Russia as an ally along with Iran, and Sunnis, who treat it
with great suspicion. Sunni politicians and clerics have expressed their
opposition to Russian involvement in Iraq, while Shi'ite politicians, headed by
Prime Minister Al-'Abadi, have expressed their support for it.
This divide
was also seen in articles in the Iraqi press, all of which expressed
disappointment with the U.S. and the U.S.-led international coalition, which in
over a year of operation have failed to improve things in the country, sparking
a debate regarding an alternative.
This report
will review the public debate in Iraq regarding Russian involvement in the
country.
Reports Of Closer
Russian-Iraqi Military Collaboration – And U.S. Chagrin
As noted, along with the
establishment of the joint intelligence center, numerous reports in the Arab
press stated that Russia could attack ISIS targets in Iraq, as it has been doing
in Syria. Thus, for example, on October 7, 2015, the website of the Saudi
Al-Arabiya TV reported that Iraqi parliamentary National Security and Defense
Committee head Hakem Al-Zameli, who is a member of the party of Shi'ite leader
Muqtada Al-Sadr, assessed that the joint intelligence center in Baghdad would
lead the war on ISIS in Iraq. He also said that Iraq would soon ask Russia to
play a greater role than the U.S. in this war.[2] On
October 8, 2015, the Iraqi daily Al-Mada reported that a delegation led
by Iraqi National Security Advisor Faleh Al-Fayyad and other officials was to
go to Moscow to discuss the possibility of Russian airstrikes on ISIS targets
in Iraq.[3] Additionally,
on October 13, 2015, Iraqi Defense Minister Khaled Al-'Obaidi hosted Russian
Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation director, Alexander Fomin,
to discuss contracts between the two countries for arming and training Iraqi
forces, with an emphasis on troops for wresting Al-Anbar province and the city
of Mosul from ISIS.[4]
In contrast to
these reports, however, Iraqi government spokesman Sa'ad Al-Hadithi denied any
negotiations between Russia and Iraq on expanding Russian military strikes to
Iraq.[5]
According to
Russian Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matviyenko, Iraq has never asked Russia
to conduct airstrikes in its territory; she added, "If Iraq does submit an
official request to Russia, the country's leadership will examine the political
and military benefits of our air force's participation in such aerial
operations, but meanwhile there has been no such request."[6]
Likewise, on
October 20, 2015, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph
Dunford arrived in Iraq; during his visit, he told the press corps accompanying
him that the Iraqi prime minster and defense minister had told him in his
meetings with them that Iraq had neither requested military assistance from
Russia nor asked for airstrikes in its territory, and that Russia was not even
considering doing this. He added that Defense Minister Al-'Obaidi had said that
the joint intelligence center had yet to begin its work.[7] The
London-based Saudi daily Al-Hayat reported that U.S. military elements
were pressuring Iraq not to involve Russia in airstrikes against ISIS, fearing
that this would complicate the activity of the U.S.-led international coalition,
which is not coordinated with Russia.[8]
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-'Abadi (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly (image: Ara.tv, October 19, 2015)
Shi'ite
Politicians Welcome Russian Military Involvement, Sunni Politicians Oppose It
Russian involvement in Iraq, new for
a country accustomed to an American presence, particularly in the past two
decades, has sparked a public debate that is exposing the lines dividing Iraq's
political and sectarian elements. As noted, while Sunni politicians and clerics
opposed a Russian presence in Iraq, Shi'ite politicians, chiefly Prime Minister
Haider Al-'Abadi, welcomed it.
While
supporters of Russian airstrikes claim that they could further the struggle
against ISIS, those opposed fear that they would cause further infringement on
Iraqi sovereignty, already impacted by foreign elements, and could harm
civilians, mainly Sunnis, in ISIS-controlled areas.
Shi'ite Politicians: U.S. Has
Failed And Therefore We Must Use Russia's Help Against ISIS
Although he has not explicitly expressed
a wish for Russian airstrikes in his country, Prime Minister Al-'Abadi has said
that he was willing to consider the possibility. Asked by France 24 TV whether
his government had discussed the possibility that Russia would bomb ISIS
targets on Iraqi soil, he said: "Not yet, but it is a possibility, and if [Russia]
submits such a proposal, we will examine it." Al-'Abadi stressed said that
Russia had a genuine interest in fighting ISIS, because over 2,000 Russian
recruits have joined it.[9] Also,
at an October 3, 2015 press conference, Al-'Abadi justified the establishment
of a joint intelligence center, stressing that Iraq would accept any help from
any country willing to fight ISIS. He expressed amazement at those with reservations
about collaboration with Russia, saying that they "are acting as if they
are relatives of President Barack Obama."[10]
Other Shi'ite
politicians hastened to side with the prime minister in supporting Russian
military involvement, arguing that the U.S. had failed to defeat ISIS. Iraqi parliamentary
National Security and Defense Committee chairman Al-Zameli stated that the
joint intelligence center was established in response to "the U.S.'s
failure to fulfill its role and its missions in the war against ISIS" and
that Russia has "substantial intelligence capabilities."[11]
Another member of Al-Zameli's Shi'ite party, Hussein Al-'Awadi, told the
Lebanese daily Al-Safir that the four-country coalition "can
achieve true victories in Syria and Iraq, after the international coalition
[led by the U.S.] had no achievements to show."[12]
Muwaffaq Al-Rabi'i, a member of the Shi'ite State of Law Coalition, called Iraq's
increasingly close relations with Russia "a result of the international
coalition's hesitancy in its fight against armed groups in Iraq, causing Iraq
to lose more land to ISIS, as in Al-Ramadi."[13]
Sunni Politicians: Russian
Involvement Endangers Iraqi Sovereignty And Will Eliminate The Sunnis
On the other hand, Sunni
politicians expressed reservations regarding Russia's military involvement in
the country. Thus, for example, Sunni parliament speaker Salim Al-Jabouri said
that he welcomed efforts by friends of Iraq to combat ISIS, but underlined that
it is Iraq's parliament "that determines positions regarding coordination
with any country or [joining] a new international axis."[14] Mohammed
Al-Karbouli, a member of the same party and of the parliament's Security and
Defense Committee, told the London-based Qatari daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi that
the establishment of the joint intelligence center in Baghdad endangers
Iraqi sovereignty and "will turn Iraq into an arena for settling scores
between international powers, at the expense of [Iraq's] land, people, and
future." Al-Karbouli demanded a parliamentary discussion on why the
intelligence center was established without the parliament's knowledge.
Along with the
politicians, Sunni Iraqi cleric 'Abd Al-Malik Al-Sa'adi stated in a press
release that Russia's increased military involvement in Iraq was aimed at
cooperating with Iran to eliminate the Sunnis in Iraq and Syria: "Russian
bombings in Syria, and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-'Abadi's call to the
Russians to drop bombs in Iraq, are aimed at eliminating this great sector of
the population [i.e. Sunnis] in both countries. This is because Al-'Abadi knows
for certain that they [the Russians] are not harming a single ISIS member, but are
destroying the infrastructure of that country [Syria] and eliminating its people."[15] Anbar
tribal council official Turki Al-'Ayid told Al-Mada that Russian
involvement would merely thwart the eradication of terrorism from Al-Anbar
province, because of disagreements between Russia and the members of the international
coalition that is assisting the Iraqi fighters.[16]
Another Sunni leader from Al-Anbar, Sheikh Kamal Al-Muhammadi, told the daily Al-Hayat
that armed Sunni factions have even threatened to forcefully oppose any Russian
military intervention.[17]
Mustafa Habib,
a writer for the Iraqi political website Al-Niqash, explicitly attributed the
schism in Iraq regarding Russian involvement and the establishment of the joint
intelligence center to the Sunni-Shi'ite split in the country. He said that
Shi'ites see Russia and Iran as their allies, and that some Shi'ite militias
operating in Iraq against ISIS, such as the Badr and Hizbullah brigades, are
directly tied to Iran and hostile to the U.S. Conversely, Sunnis see Russia as
an Iranian ally that supports Shi'ite militias with the intent of killing
Sunnis, and thus place more trust in the U.S. This is why Sunnis try to acquire
American weapons directly, without the mediation of the Shi'ite-controlled
Iraqi government, an attempt that the Shi'ite factions have thus far managed to
thwart.[18]
Iraqi Press Argues For And Against Russian
Involvement
The following two articles exemplify
the schism in the Iraqi political arena between Sunnis, who oppose increasing
Russian involvement in Iraq and see it as a danger to Iraqi sovereignty, and
Shi'ites, who view it as a golden opportunity to restore Iraq's sovereignty
over territory taken by ISIS.
Iraqi artist painting a portrait of Putin, from Gulf News article on the Russian president's growing popularity in Iraq (image: gulfnews.com, October 8, 2015)
Article on Pro-Sunni Website: Russian
Involvement Places Iraqi Sovereignty At Risk
Kurdish researcher Jawdat Hoshyar
wrote in the pro-Sunni Iraqi website Babil.info that, according to Russian
reports, the role of the Baghdad intelligence center is not simply to supply
intelligence, but also to bring about a tight security collaboration between
the four countries. This would also include coordinating between the special
forces of the four armies and providing authorization for Russian drones to
operate in Iraqi airspace, thus "bringing Russia into the frontlines
against ISIS through the Iraqi gate, causing a constant increase in the
Russian-Iranian influence in Iraq." According to Hoshyar:
"Washington's position regarding these developments can be characterized
as weak, since the [existing] trend in the U.S.,... both in public opinion and
in the White House and Pentagon, is to try and avoid entering into Middle East
conflicts. Moscow has used this golden opportunity to penetrate the region
under the guise of a war against terrorism, placing what is left of Iraq's
sovereignty in a state of instability."[19]
Pro-Iranian Website: "Our Friend Russia,
Welcome"
Saif Aktham Al-Muzaffar wrote in
the pro-Iranian Iraqi newspaper Al-Akhbar that Iraq should ensure its
interests and form strong bonds with Russia, after its alliance with the U.S. has
caused it massive damage. He wrote: "If Iraq does not use this golden
opportunity [to launch security collaboration with Russia] in order to heal its
wounds and make up for the losses it has suffered due to the Americans, it will
never be able to liberate its land, given the economic and logistical difficulties
of the campaign. [Iraq] must go hand in hand with the strongest ally on the
international arena, the friend Russia, after it has expressed consent to an
intelligence and military collaboration and to attacking [ISIS] positions in
Iraq, and after it put the ball in the Iraqi court by saying: 'We will expand
our attacks on ISIS to include Iraq if Baghdad asks this.' [Now] Iraq should
merely say 'our friend Russia, welcome.'"[20]
*Y.
Graff is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] Al-Mada
(Iraq), October 14, 2015.
[2]
Ara.tv, October 7, 2015.
[3] Al-Mada
(Iraq), October 8, 2015.
[4] Al-Mada
(Iraq), October 13, 2015.
[5] Al-Mada
(Iraq), October 7, 2015.
[6]
Ria.ru, October 6, 2015.
[7] Al-Quds
Al-Arabi (London), October 21, 2015.
[8] Al-Hayat
(London), October 17, 2015.
[9] Al-Quds
Al-Arabi (London), October 1, 2015.
[10] Al-Sabah
Al-Jadid (Iraq), October 3, 2015.
[11] Al-Quds
Al-Arabi (London), September 29, 2015.
[12] Al-Safir
(Lebanon), October 10, 2015.
[13] Al-Mada
(Iraq), September 29, 2015.
[14] Al-Hayat (London),
October 9, 2015.
[15] Elaph.com, October 9,
2015.
[16] Al-Mada (Iraq),
October 20, 2015.
[17] Al-Hayat (London),
October 19, 2015.
[18] Niqash.org, October 8,
2015.
[19]
Babil.info, October 8, 2015.
[20]
Akhbaar.org, October 8, 2015.
Y. Graff is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Source: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8835.htm
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment