Thursday, November 5, 2015

Will Turks accept the election results? - Daniel Pipes

by Daniel Pipes

Which will prevail: fear of Erdogan's ruthlessness, or anger at his swindle?

Like other observers of Turkish politics, I was stunned on Nov. 1 when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was reported to have increased its share of the national vote since the last round of elections in June 2015 by 9% and its share of parliamentary seats by 11%. 

The polls had consistently shown the four major parties winning about the same number of seats as in June. This made intuitive sense; they represent mutually hostile outlooks (Islamist, leftist, Kurdish, nationalist), making substantial movement between them in under five months highly unlikely. That about one in nine voters switched parties defies reason. 

The AKP's huge increase gave it back the parliamentary majority it had lost in the June 2015 elections, promising President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a semi-legal path to the dictatorial powers to which he aspires. 

But, to me, the results stink of fraud. It defies reason, for example, that the AKP's war on Kurds would prompt about a quarter of Turkey's Kurds to abandon the pro-Kurdish party and switch their vote to the AKP. As news of irregularities comes in, Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute sums up the problems in Commentary magazine:

"Turkish political analysts attribute Erdogan's cheating quotient at around 5% -- that takes into account stuffed ballots, shenanigans on the state-run Turkish Airlines as it transports ballots from abroad, disappeared ballot boxes from opposition-run towns and districts, and pretty much everything involving the mayor of Ankara. In the case of Sunday's elections, it appears that Erdogan's AKP won the votes of hundreds of thousands of dead people."

Given the history of fraud in Turkey's elections, that this one was rigged comes as no shock, especially as rumors swirled in advance about sophisticated efforts to manipulate the results. (For methods, think the Volkswagen emissions scam.)

The citizens of Turkey now face the decisive question of whether to accept or reject the results of this election. Which will prevail: fear of Erdogan's ruthlessness or anger at his swindle? Sadly, because his electoral coup d'etat has blocked the path of democracy, should Turks resist, they are compelled to do so in non-democratic ways.

Daniel Pipes


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