by Alex Winston
Mohsen Sazegara: "Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, was a humiliation for Iran's intelligence organizations.”
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Iran is in no position to fight a long-term war with Israel and even asked the US to intervene to prevent a possible large-scale Israeli retaliation to any Iranian attack, according to Mohsen Sazegara, founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post.
The IRGC was founded shortly after the 1979 revolution in Iran to protect the Islamic Republic’s religious control over the country, and to act as a counterbalance to the regular Iranian Army, many of whose officers were still loyal to the Shah of Iran, and therefore could not be trusted by the revolutionary regime.
Since 1979, its authority and influence has spread throughout the world and it is considered one of the leading sponsors of Islamic terror globally. The group is now designated a terrorist organization by the United States.Speaking from the US, where he is now based after leaving Iran more than 20 years ago, Sazegara also touched upon internal conflicts within the Islamic Republic and the problems facing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“What Israel did, I mean the alleged assassination of [Hamas Chief] Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places, was a humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran,” Sazegara stated. “This has created a problem for Khamenei among his main powerbase – the intelligence services.”
“[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is not in a position to fight Israel. They don’t have any strategic balance. They can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach Israel in six to eight minutes.‘ But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t defend the country, especially air defense,’ Khamenei’s commanders told him.
They told him that “Iran is not in a position to fight Israel,” Sazegara added. “They emphasized that ‘even if we launch an attack, we should immediately consider a ceasefire with international mediators.’”
In a wide-ranging interview with the Post, the former revolutionary-turned-politician discussed his role in the revolution, his relationship with its leader Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding of the IRGC, and how his political views evolved against the State-Religion axis that rules in the Islamic Republic, which led to being barred from the 2001 Iranian presidential elections.
Sazegara was managing director of the National Radio of Iran between 1979–1981, before serving in a multitude of political roles in the 80s. He served as political deputy in the prime minister’s office, deputy minister of heavy industries, chairman of the Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran, and vice minister of planning and budget.
SPEAKING ABOUT the US role in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran, Sazegara stated that, “As far as I know, Iran, behind the scenes, negotiated with the US and the Biden administration and asked them to talk to Israel, stating that Iran would attack somewhere in Israel, and promise nobody will be killed, but Israel should not retaliate.
“Iran asked the US to put pressure on Israel not to retaliate enough to escalate. But this time, the US did not agree and told them that we can’t prevent Israel.”
What challenges does Khamenei face in attacking Israel?
For Sazegara, Khamenei faces multiple challenges in considering any military action against Israel. First, a limited attack risks provoking a significant Israeli retaliation, which could lead to the defeat of Iran’s armed forces. Such a defeat could threaten Khamenei’s power, as historically, humiliated armed forces can often bite the hand that feeds them.
Secondly, Iran’s economy is fragile, struggling with issues like energy production, inflation, unemployment, and daily strikes. This economic instability further complicates the prospect of engaging in war.
Lastly, Khamenei lacks the support of the Iranian people for a war with Israel. Intelligence gathered indicates that the majority of Iranians oppose any conflict with Israel, leaving Khamenei potentially isolated if he chooses to pursue military action, although knowing the forcefulness with which the regime cracks down on dissent, that thought may be far from the ayatollah’s mind.
Three senior Iranian officials told Reuters last week that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza could prevent Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for Haniyeh’s assassination. Diplomatic envoys have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to de-escalate the situation. This is a face-saving measure to allow the regime to fall back and present the people with some form of a pyrrhic victory, according to Sazegara.
“I’m sure that in Iran, the propaganda will say that ‘Israel was actually afraid of us and accepted the ceasefire,’” should a deal be agreed, he told the Post. “They have to do something to say to their followers that this was a show of power, that [Israel] accepted a ceasefire.
“And if these [Israel-Hamas] negotiations go nowhere and there is no ceasefire, I don’t know what Khamenei will do, but I guess that he would consider using Iran’s proxy groups to retaliate against Israel.”
The full interview with Mohsen Sazegara will be published in Friday’s Jerusalem Post.
Alex Winston
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-815572
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